Summit League predictions: Feb 14-17

Happy Valentine’s Day, or Happy Not Caring What Today Is Day, whichever you want to call it.  We’re in the second half of the Summit League schedule, and nearing toward Summit League tournament positioning, so things are going to get pretty interesting as teams are looking for a little revenge over the teams that beat them.

February 14

Western Illinois @ Fort Wayne

I got it right when Western Illinois won at Fort Wayne in January, and that is pretty big because when picking Western Illinois to win, I am right 5% of the time.

Western Illinois hasn’t won during the week of Valentine’s Day since 2013.

John Konchar really struggled against the Leathernecks last month, but he has been improving as the conference season has been going on.  Perhaps, the length of Brandon Gilbeck bothered him, but Konchar will be able to figure it out at home against the Leathernecks.

South Dakota @ Oral Roberts

With an overtime win against North Dakota State and a 10 point loss against South Dakota State, the Golden Eagles appear to be bouncing back from their struggles.

The Coyotes are 4-1 on the road this season in the Summit League, and they’re a roster filled with competitive defensive players.  Competitive defensive players that are all currently in “playoff mode” trying to earn that top spot in the Summit League tournament and an automatic NIT bid.

Omaha @ Denver

Denver will be seeking revenge after their double-overtime loss in Baxter Arena.  It was a game that anyone could have won, but the Mavericks just happened to escape with the win.  A game that showed their post players being just plain afraid of Matt Pile.

Also, how freaking great was that play at the end of regulation to get Daniel Norl that three point shot?  That play almost never works out, but the Mavericks executed it perfectly.  Really makes you feel like maybe they would have won the Summit League Tournament last season if they had a timeout near the end of the game to set up a play.

Either way, here we are now.  We’re in the revenge part of the season.  Daniel Amigo is back in the starting lineup for the Pioneers, and you could see how he felt frustrated with the referees and especially Matt Pile in Omaha.  Now, both players will be in the starting lineup, and Amigo will be looking to go right at the freshman.  If the Pioneers get off to a hot start at home, it should be difficult for the Mavericks to play catch up.

February 17

Western Illinois @ South Dakota State

I’m getting super good at making home made burritos.  I’ll use some bison, or some ground turkey with taco seasoning…then I’ll spread some avocado on the wrap, a little ranch, corn, almond cheese, and sometimes I’ll throw in some red or yellow peppers.  I’ll try and get some brown rice and black beans involved, when I can.  It’s pretty incredible.

Fort Wayne @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

Who even knows what’s going on with these two teams?  North Dakota State squandered a big lead the last time these two teams played, and I thought that was Fort Wayne’s specialty.

This is the last home game for North Dakota State’s AJ Jacobson and Paul Miller, and even though Paul Miller may not even play, we’re taking the home team in a situation like this.

Omaha @ South Dakota on ESPN3

With their defense, and mixture of personnel issues, the Coyotes should be able to pick up an easy win against the Mavericks.

It’s nice that Mitch Hahn came back with 21 points against Fort Wayne, but there are too many IFs for the Mavericks to pick up an upset in Vermillion.  They can win if Mitch Hahn plays like vintage Mitch Hahn.  They can win if Renard Suggs and/or Ayo Akinwole give some meaningful minutes off the bench.  They can win if KJ Robinson can score efficiently.  They can win if Matt Pile comes plays like he did in the first half of the season.



Summit League predictions: Feb 8-10

February 8th

Western Illinois @ Omaha

The Mavericks have played well at home this season, and they’ll be taking on Western Illinois with 9 days since playing a game.  The 9 days of rest will have proven to be beneficial for the Mavericks, and there really cannot be too many reasons for it to have not been that great for the Mavericks since there have been so many injuries they are considering taking the good body parts of all the injured players and fusing them into one person to construct a Frankenstein basketball player.

The Mavericks were able to out rebound the Leathernecks by 9 in Macomb, and they can probably do the same in Omaha, even without Lamar Wofford-Humphrey, as Matt Pile and Mitch Hahn can work to keep Brandon Gilbeck off the glass.

Fort Wayne @ South Dakota

The Mastodons are bringing a 2 game winning streak into Vermillion, but they were 1-3 on the road in the first half of the conference season.  They played 2 of those losses close and only lost by 1 and 2.

The ‘Dons may not have be able to keep this game as close as they would like.  The ‘Dons live and die by the 3, and they’re playing on the road against the best perimeter defense in the Summit League.  They were 3-of-20 on threes when these two teams met in Fort Wayne.

North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

The Golden Eagles may have started the conference season off strong, but the youth and the lack of depth has really been starting to show.

South Dakota State @ Denver

To win, Denver will have to outscore the Jackrabbits.  That is the most obvious thing to ever be said, but to do that, they’ll have to defend the Jackrabbits.  The defending seems to be the problem for the Pioneers.

February 10th

North Dakota State @ Denver

I completely think the Bison are a better basketball team than the Pioneers, but traveling to Tulsa and then Denver might be a bit much for the Bison.

Fort Wayne @ Omaha

So for John Konchar’s 2 career games in Omaha, he has averaged 30 points and 11.5 rebounds.  He has also shot 24-of-29 from the Baxter Arena floor.  Okay, I’m going to go hit random objects with a hammer.

It is 90’s night at Baxter Arena.  Apparently, an original Blockbuster card will get you in for free.  It’s a good thing my counterfeit Blockbuster card business is going to finally pay off.

South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts

I’m trying to imagine all the ways that Oral Roberts could take control of the Jackrabbits and win this game.  I’ve got nothing.



Hey, I think Matt Pile might be Captain America

I was never really a Marvel guy until about 2010, but I have seen enough of the films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to build an understanding that Matt Pile could actually be the real Captain America.

I am not going to sit here and start a conspiracy that Matt Pile became the way that he is, physically, because of some super serum put together in some lab, but I’m not going to sit here and tell anyone that it’s not possible.  I’m sure Pile built his physical presence up in a gym, but his 6 blocks against the Pioneers would likely have Denver wanting him to be tested for any scientific advantages he may possess.

Okay, I don’t really want to talk about Pile’s physical characteristics anymore, because, well, this is weird enough.  But what else does Pile possess for me to come up with such a claim?

Captain America doesn’t back down from a challenge, and neither does Matt Pile.  Capt moves without fear, as does Matt Pile.

When faced up against one of the most prestigious basketball programs in the country, Pile had to go up against NBA prospects.  Pile went right at them because he didn’t want to show fear.  When going up against South Dakota State’s Mike Daum, when Pile first got the ball, he looked right at Daum and took it right to the basket for a bucket.  On defense, when first against Daum, Daum tried going right back at him, and Pile blocked his shot.

Captain America is the tactician of whatever team he is on.  It would be a stretch to refer to Pile as a “floor general” in any sense, but he’s quite tactical on the court to use his strengths to help his team.

Watch Pile whenever he first gets the ball down on the block in any game.  With his back to the basket, he’ll look at his defender, he’ll look at the basket, and he’ll figure out his first move to show his defender who is stronger, and not that he’s not afraid.

As the game progresses and he catches the ball down on the block, with his back to the basket, he’ll stand there, maybe take a few dribbles, and watch teammates on the perimeter move around for an open basket, and he is completely capable of finding them.

Random thought:  The dumbest scene in all of the Marvel Universe is in “Captain America: Civil War” when Steve Rogers is holding the helicopter from flying away, and he switches arms positions, which the director wanted to do apparently because he just thought it looked cool.  Why wouldn’t the powered chopper just pull Rogers clear into the sky with it for the second he lets go of the platform?  I have no idea, but the scene would’ve been just as good, if not better, with Matt Pile as Captain America.

The free throws aren’t there, yet, and South Dakota and South Dakota State both exposed that Pile needs to figure out what to do when being double teamed, but he’s got a long basketball career ahead of him and he will figure that stuff out.  Also, how many freshmen in the Summit League are drawing double teams?  None.  Just Matt Pile.

There was a game in Tre’Shawn Thurman’s freshman year that I thought was really his coming out party.  It was ironically against Nevada, but he played with such confidence and swagger, and you could tell he felt he was the best player on the court.  I thought he was the best freshman Omaha had landed after watching him that game.

After watching Pile play Denver, I thought maybe Pile was the best freshmen Omaha has landed so far.  Pile had 10 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 blocks that night.  That may not have the feel of “this kid is the future” but he absolutely boggled Denver’s minds that night.  They couldn’t figure out how to score in the post with Pile on the floor.  Daniel Amigo, one of the best post players in the league, couldn’t match up against Pile.  As good as Thurman was against Nevada in the Baxter Arena, I never felt like Nevada was just frustrated by the guy’s presence like Denver.  I mostly just felt like Nevada was bad.

Also, coincidentally, both Thurman and Pile were able to take advantage of opportunities with older players being slowed down by injuries.  Pile received more playing time with Mitch Hahn, and now Lamar Wofford-Humphrey being injured.  Thurman picked up minutes with Jake White was sidelined, and the playing time probably helped him develop faster.  Hopefully, it can pay off in the same way for Pile.

Captain America may not have the coolest abilities out of all the Avengers, but he has the biggest heart and displays the biggest signs of leadership.  Matt Pile may not be the leader of the Mavericks, yet, but make no mistake that one day he will be Captain Omerica.

The Mavericks still have 6 regular season games remaining, and at least one Summit League tournament game to play, and Pile has already made an impression on the program.  This season he:

  • Had 6 blocks against Denver, which was the most by any Maverick in a basketball game since transition
  • Has 29 blocks on the season, one more and he’ll pass Tre’Shawn Thurman by an freshman since transition.  He’s 7 blocks away from passing Thurman for the most by any Mav for blocks on a season since transition.
  • Was the first Maverick freshman to record a double-double since transition.  It was against Doane, but it still counts.
  • Has the 4th most points by a freshman in a season since transition, he’s 28 points away from passing Marcus Tyus for 3rd.

Summit League predictions: Jan 30 – Feb 3

January 30

Omaha @ South Dakota State on ESPN3

Why on a Tuesday?  What is going on?  How is this possible?  I mean…

It’s nice for the Mavericks to have everyone playing, finally, but they’re two-thirds of the way through the season and in the mode of trying to figure out their rotation.

February 1

Oral Roberts @ Fort Wayne

Sure, Oral Roberts beat the Mastodons by 16 in Tulsa.  Yeah, Oral Roberts won 2 games last week.  But, the Golden Eagles have been on a struggle bus ever since starting the conference 3-0.  It’s like all their will was taken out of them after losing by 3 to South Dakota State

South Dakota @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

After an odd week of defeating South Dakota State and losing to Denver, the Coyotes will look to get back on track.  And luckily, they get to start off against the Leathernecks.

North Dakota State @ South Dakota State on ESPN3

Since the Bison have no one who can guard Mike Daum, they need Daum to just be off.  Odds are, he won’t be off.

February 3

Denver @ Fort Wayne

Inconsistency meets inconsistency.  Fort Wayne last 4 games have been decided by 4 points or less.  Going to have to take the inconsistent team at home against the inconsistent team on the road, even though the Pioneers have won 3 in a row and will have a week of rest.

South Dakota @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

South Dakota is going to be out for revenge against the Bison after their loss in Vermillion by 5.  The Bison didn’t play particularly good defense in that game, the Coyotes weren’t knocking down wide open shots in that game.  The better team in a revenge game should just about always win, and the Coyotes are the better team.

Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

The length of Brandon Gilbeck doesn’t play as big of an impact on the Golden Eagles like it does with other teams.




Summit League predictions: Jan 24-27

I was 5-2 last week.  My best week.

Amazingly, Oral Roberts has no conference games this week.  They play two non-D1 opponents.  It’s like they’re an SEC football team that plays a FCS team in week 9.

January 24

South Dakota State @ South Dakota on ESPN3

How fun of a game is this going to be?  INCREDIBLY FUN.

Daum versus Hagedorn.  Jenkins versus Mooney.  Blue versus Red.  Okay, I ran out of things.

Is it wrong of me to think that the Coyotes are the best team overall in the conference, even though the Jackrabbits have the best overall player in the Summit League?  Probably not.

With their home court advantage, in what should be a sold out crowd, the Coyotes will be able to utilize more depth and a better defense.

The x-factors of this game could be Reed Tellinghuisen and Trey Burch-Manning.  They’ll be guarding each other, and have two totally different styles of play.  Whichever of them can make key plays in big moments and take control of the other may be the difference maker in this game.

January 25

Omaha @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

Each team is on a…I have no idea what to call this…a streak of conference games where you go W-L-W-L-W-L.  A Pattern Streak?  I don’t know.  I got nothing.  If the patterns hold true, both teams will win this game.  No, wait.  Crap.

The Bison have dropped 3 of their last 4 home games, which seems unheard of.  So really, what Bison team is going to show up?

I don’t think the Bison have an answer for Zach Jackson, and Mitch Hahn might be back.  So we will see what happens.  Hopefully, it’s good.

Western Illinois @ Denver

The Leathernecks have yet to win a game outside the state of Illinois this season.

Was it even noticed that the Leathernecks held Mike Daum to just 11 points last weekend?  Probably not since South Dakota State was still able to win by 28 points.  With Brandon Gilbeck being Daum’s primary defender, it plays into my theory that the one thing that bothers Daum is length.

January 27

Western Illinois @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

The Leathernecks have yet to win a game outside the state of Illinois this season.

Fort Wayne @ South Dakota State on ESPN3

The Mastodons have not won in Brookings since 2007, and Mike Daum scored 42 points the last time Fort Wayne came to town.  He also had 51 in Fort Wayne last season.

No one really has an answer for Mike Daum, but the ‘Dons don’t even have a clue.

Maybe with a full week off, the Mastodons can be well rested against the Jackrabbits who will be coming off an emotional game in Vermillion on Wednesday.

South Dakota @ Denver

The Coyotes are better at basketball on almost every level.  Home court advantage really shouldn’t matter that much.

Summit League predictions: Jan 17-20

January 17

Fort Wayne @ Western Illinois

I’m probably, definitely wrong.

The Mastodons are 0-2 in the Summit League on weeknights so far, which is the dumbest stat you will ever see.  However, the length of Brandon Gilbeck can really keep John Konchar off the glass, and the Leathernecks might actually have a chance to play their own pace and tempo, which is much slower than how the Mastodons like to play.

Oral Roberts @ South Dakota on ESPN3

The defense of the Coyotes should really bother the guards of Oral Roberts, who all shoot less than 40%.

January 18

Denver @ Omaha

This is a real battle for 6th place.  That’s one of the saddest things I’ve ever said.

Even though Denver has Daniel Amigo, neither team really has much of a threatening interior game.  Omaha has been playing better defense lately and taking care of the basketball on offense.

It’s also High School Night at the Baxter Arena, so clearly that is an advantage for the Mavericks.

January 20

North Dakota State @ Fort Wayne

Why am I being so mean to Fort Wayne this week?  The Bison have not won in Fort Wayne since 2013, but they have also been one of few teams that have slowed down John Konchar over his career.

The bad Mastodon defense may not be able to contain the weaving offense of the Bison to let Paul Miller take control of the game.  We often forget that Paul Miller is one of the best players in the league.  By “we” I am mainly talking about myself.

South Dakota State @ Western Illinois

I mean, it would be hilarious if the Jackrabbits’ first conference loss was to Western Illinois.

South Dakota @ Omaha

This should be one of the bigger crowds of the season for the Mavericks, as Vermillion people typically travel well to Omaha, and what else is there to do in Vermillion on a Saturday night?

I’m trying to picture the South Dakota defense up against a youthful Omaha back court of JT Gibson, KJ Robinson, and Ayo Akinwole, and it feels like Zach Jackson and Daniel Norl might have to do too much in this game.

Denver @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

Denver is a bad defensive team, and Oral Roberts is a good defensive team.  The bigs of Oral Roberts should really be able to control the tempo of the game and not let Denver play to their advantage of running the floor.



My trivial Summit League rankings – Jan 16

This weather has me too mad for words.

1. South Dakota State, 4-0

The Jackrabbits have the best player in the Summit and they’re undefeated in the conference.

They did have 0 bench points against Oral Roberts last week. The lack of a bench hasn’t hurt them yet.

2. South Dakota, 3-1

Without a doubt, they miss Carlton Hurst’s defense, but they were able to hold Fort Wayne to shooting 3-of-20 in Fort Wayne last week.

3. North Dakota State, 2-2

An up and down start to the conference schedule for the Bison, and they have already lost 2 in Fargo, which seems unheard of.  They’re not the only Summit League team having an up and down season, but they’re probably the best of the teams having an up and down season.

Their home loss to Denver seemed like a fluke.  The Bison were finding open shots, but just couldn’t knock them down.  Denver wasn’t doing anything spectacular.

4. Fort Wayne, 2-2

They can beat anyone in the Summit League when they’re knocking down threes, but when they’re not knocking down threes, the Mastodons are kind of bad.

5. Oral Roberts, 3-2

As somewhat expected, the young Golden Eagles couldn’t stay undefeated going into a weekend on the road against South Dakota State and North Dakota State.

The team did get Austin Ruder back from injury, and the rust was really showing, but with Ruder back on the team, the Golden Eagles have more depth and three point shooting.  If Ruder can be healthy, he could make up that three point difference in to South Dakota State.

6. Denver, 1-3

I’m still lost as to how Denver was able to pick up a win in Fargo.  The Bison just couldn’t hit wide open shots.

7. Omaha, 1-3

The Mavericks were able to finally pick up a road win in Macomb and held on for a competitive game in Fort Wayne last week.  Hopefully, the team can take advantage of a week at home against a kind of bad Pioneer team and a South Dakota team playing without Carlton Hurst.

They were able to hold John Konchar to 6 points on Saturday night, which is actually one of their bigger accomplishments this season.

8. Western Illinois, 0-3

Everything make sense again.