Matt Dentlinger

Summit League predictions: Feb 12-16

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February 12th

Western Illinois @ South Dakota on ESPN+

I’ve got this idea for a movie.  It’s like a comedy version of “The Expendables.”  We round up them comedy Hollywood folk like: Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell, Jim Carrey, Bill Murray, Steve Martin, Steve Carell, Dave Chappelle, Tina Fey, Jerry Seinfeld, and more and it’s just a movie about them playing themselves trying to come up with a parody to “The Expendables” but none of them can stay on track long enough to put together a movie, and they get in a bunch of craziness along the way.

Okay, was that a bigger waste of time to read about, or would it have been a bigger waste of time to hear about a basketball game we already know the outcome to?

Omaha @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

Think about how much the Mavericks had to overcome to defeat the Golden Eagles in Baxter Arena.  Now think of how bad JT Gibson has been struggling shooting the basketball, he’s shot 15% on threes over the last three games, and 23% overall from the field.  Also throw in the fact that Zach Thornhill stole the ball and sprinted down the court to throw down a monstrous dunk as time expired when the Mavericks were already up by 5, and how that must have upset the Golden Eagles.

February 14th

Denver @ South Dakota State

Fort Wayne @ North Dakota State on ESPN+

I’m going over these games together, as it’s fitting both of these match ups take place on Valentine’s Day.  South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the most beloved teams in the Summit League, so I find it ironic they both get home games on Valentine’s Day against the two teams with the least amount of love in the Summit.  Fort Wayne won’t even be in the conference next season, and Denver wishes they weren’t in the conference next season.

It’s so beautiful The Summit League honored Valentine’s Day with match ups that make you feel like you’re watching a bad relationship end, and another game that just plays out like an abusive relationship you want to see end, but the Pioneers think they cannot find anything better.

February 15th

North Dakota @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

The Summit League and ESPN3 invite you to take in a basketball production so low in quality you’ll question if the broadcasters are in an active pursuit to ruin your Saturday.  Yes, tune in to listen to two grown men get paid to mispronounce 19 year old kids’ last names, as they dribble the ball off their knees and miss contested driving floaters 18 feet away from the basket for some damn reason.  You’ll be so frustrated watching this game, you may even take up reading novels again.

Why take Western Illinois in this game, you ask? Just because they are the home team, and every team in this conference has been so bad on the road that it just seems like a safe bet? That, yeah sure, but also because these teams aren’t far enough away in talent, depth, or just about anything, but CJ Duff is a good enough defender to throw Marlon Stewart off on the road to give the Leathernecks an actual chance in a basketball game.  Also, Ben Pyle has a chance to outplay Kienan Walter on the perimeter and go off for a big day, and whenever Pyle plays big, the Leathernecks play big. I get that’s rare.

South Dakota @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

The Golden Eagles have already lost to one South Dakota team at home this season.  Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor aren’t great at defending big guys on the perimeter like Tyler Hagedorn.

February 16

Fort Wayne @ South Dakota State on ESPN+

Things Fort Wayne would have to do to win this basketball game:

  • Be good at perimeter defense to slow down Douglas Wilson and Matt Dentlinger
  • Actually, be good at defense in general
  • Be good on the road
  • Not turn the ball over
  • Make free throws

Things South Dakota State has to do to win this game

  • Show up

Denver @ Omaha

Jace Townsend had to shoot 8-of-10 on threes to give the Pioneers a win in Denver, and that’s not likely to happen on the road at Omaha.  The Pioneers shot 55% overall from the field in that game, and they are capable of shooting well on the road, but the young Pioneers have a tough weekend on the road at South Dakota State and Omaha.

JT Gibson is going to have to get out of his current shooting slump for the Mavericks not to drop another game at home.  With the lack of depth of the Mavericks, they cannot afford one of their captains shooting 23% from the floor.  Not many teams could.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summit League predictions: Jan 29-Feb 2

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I actually got some games right last week.  Every home team won last week, but it likely won’t be the same thing this week.

January 29th

South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts

Both teams are undefeated at home this season. The size of Emmanuel Nzekwesi, Kevin Obanor, and Elijah Lufile should be able to contest South Dakota State’s Douglas Wilson and Matt Dentlinger, who both shoot 61% from the floor. If Oral Roberts can alter their shots, they should be able to pick up the win at home.

January 30th

North Dakota @ Fort Wayne

The Mastodons are one of the sloppiest teams I’ve seen in the Summit League in a while.  Though, I will maintain IUPUI had some pretty sloppy teams in their day.  Even with that, North Dakota turns the ball over too much and Fort Wayne is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the conference, so they’ll have plenty of opportunities at possessions.

North Dakota State @ Western Illinois

The Leathernecks have had success against the Bison in the past in Macomb, but it usually takes a lot of things to go Wright for the Leathernecks and a lot of things to go wrong for the Bison. Seems like a bit to much of something to ask for from a team who may have given up on their head coach.

Please, recognize that play on words with “Wright” for the Leathernecks.

South Dakota @ Denver

The Coyotes defeated the Pioneers by just 2 points in Vermillion, so maybe you think home court advantage will come through for the Pioneers.  Maybe, maybe not. That game was played three weeks ago, and South Dakota wasn’t a fully healthy basketball team.  That game started a streak of the Coyotes winning 5 of the last 6 games. The one loss was at North Dakota State, a game that ended with a few questionable play calls.

February 1st

North Dakota State @ Fort Wayne

The most disciplined team against the least disciplined team.

South Dakota State @ Western Illinois

Am I crazy? Was it crazy when Western Illinois beat the Jackrabbits in Sioux Falls last March?  Yes it was.

Denver @ Oral Roberts

Denver is 0-10 on the road this season, and there is no plausible argument for anyone to make that they pick up their first road at the larger and more experienced Oral Roberts.

February 2nd

South Dakota @ Omaha on ESPN3

South Dakota defeated Omaha in Vermillion by 10, and home court advantage usually isn’t worth 10 total points.  Omaha had opportunities to win that game, but came up short in the end.

Omaha may have a 16 game home winning streak, and I am going to pray they win this game, Omaha has experienced scoring droughts in 5 consecutive home games forcing them to fight their way back to hold on for wins.  South Dakota is too experienced of a team and one of the best shooting teams in the country for the Mavericks to fall behind to.  Omaha is going to have to start out hot and keep it rolling for 40 straight minutes to beat the Coyotes.

The Mavericks will be playing this game on more rest than their opponent, however, the last time Omaha had a week of rest, they ended up losing in Denver by 15 points.

My trivial Summit League rankings: Jan 28

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1st – South Dakota, 14-8 (5-3)

Last week’s ranking: 3rd

The Coyotes have won 5 of their last 6 games and shot higher than 50% in the last 4 games. Their bench hasn’t been what we thought it would be this season, but Ty Chisom and Brandon Armstrong have been giving the Coyotes quality minutes off the bench.  They haven’t really needed much of their bench as their starters are so solid.  All of their starters average 30 or more minutes per game.

Interesting stat: South Dakota is 4th in division one in 3 point field goal percentage.  The Coyotes also have the 9th best overall field goal percentage.  They also rank 37th in free throw percentage, and that’s 4th in the conference.  Western Illinois, North Dakota, and North Dakota State are all in the top 10.

2nd – South Dakota State, 15-8 (6-2)

Last week’s ranking: 2nd

In the preseason, I pointed out that it seems every year there is always a team with bunch of injuries and it’s just a year from hell.  I thought that would be South Dakota State this year, and while they have faced a number of injuries to key personnel, they are 6-2 in the first half of conference season.  Their players really buy into the The Next Guy philosophy.  After injuries to senior Brandon Key and junior Tray Buchanan, the team turned to sparingly used freshman Matt Mims, who has averaged 9.7 points and shot 67% from the field in the last few games.

Interesting stat: While seeing South Dakota was 4th in division one in field goal percentage, I also noticed South Dakota State is 14th.  They’ve ranked 1st in field goal percentage conference games. It helps when their two main interior post players Douglas Wilson and Matt Dentlinger both shoot higher than 60% from the field.  Also, somewhat scary they can shoot that well as a team and still average more than 10 offensive rebounds per game.

3rd – North Dakota State, 14-7 (5-2)

Last week’s ranking: 1st

Ranked 1st last week, and they dropped a game at South Dakota State and beat Denver, so not the biggest week to brag about.  It’s not like any of this matters.  It’s just winter and you came here because you’re bored.

Interesting stat: College Basketball Power Index predicts the Bison to have the best winning record at the end of the season, in the Summit League.  They have also had the weakest overall RPI Strength of Schedule if that makes you feel any better.

4th – Oral Roberts, 11-9 (4-3)

Last week’s ranking: 2nd 

The Golden Eagles only lost one game last week, at South Dakota, but one has to ask…if this team is known for their size and having such a strong interior presence, how did they let Tyler Hagedorn score 31 points and grab 9 rebounds against them?

Interesting stat: None, they’re boring.

5th – Omaha, 12-10 (5-2)

Last week’s ranking: 5th

Even if the Mavericks did win 2 games last week, they found themselves down after big scoring droughts in each game.  With moving Ayo Akinwole to the bench, the Mavericks will have 2 high energy guys off the bench with he and Marlon Ruffin hopefully providing sparks when the team finds themselves in those droughts.  Ruffin has scored in double figures in six consecutive games.

Interesting stat: Omaha has the highest RPI in the conference.

6th – North Dakota, 10-12 (4-4)

Last week’s ranking: 6th

After 4 straight losses, the Fighting Hawks were able to get a bit back on track with home wins over Denver and Western Illinois.  They really don’t have much of a bench, they may have a few more wins if they had one or two more quality guys.  Aanen Moody not playing since December 1st hasn’t helped.

Interesting stat: Marlon Stewart has won more Player of the Week awards than anyone in the conference this season.

7th – Purdue Fort Wayne, 9-13 (2-5)

Last week’s ranking: 7th

The Mastodons held a 5 point lead on the road against Omaha, but did not score for the last 4 1/2 minutes to let Omaha take back the lead for the win.  Jon Coffman stated that neither of his point guards have really been in that situation and the team really couldn’t hold their composure.  This has been consistent with their team play, as it frequently looks like no one really knows what’s going on and they are definitely the sloppiest team in the conference.

Interesting stat: They are leading the conference in Summit League games in rebounds and steals, but are still dead last in field goal percentage, three point field goal percentage, free throw percentage, points, turnovers, and defensive three point field goal percentage.  Two conference wins is actually fairly impressive when you take that into consideration.

8th – Western Illinois, 5-13 (2-6)

Last week’s ranking: 8th

The Leathernecks have lost three consecutive games and will now have North Dakota State and South Dakota State at home before two straight road games against Fort Wayne and South Dakota.  A wise bald man once said “d’oh!”

Interesting stat:  They’re pretty good at free throws.

9th – Denver, 5-17 (1-7)

Last week’s ranking: 9th

I’m not for or against Rodney Billups being fired, but I saw a supporter of his say his team is young so you have to give him a chance.  Well, his team was experienced last season and they still finished dead last.  South Dakota State is also just as young, and they’re currently first in the conference standings.  I realize this sounds like I’m pro Billups getting fired, but as an Omaha fan, he can coach Denver as long as he likes.

Interesting stat: Heading into last week, Denver had the 2nd fewest turnovers in the conference.  Last week against the North Dakota schools, the Pioneers had a total of 31 turnovers and now rank 7th in turnovers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summit League predictions: Jan 15-19

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Man, I went 3-5 last week at this.  I was feeling like living life on the edge and taking some risks, but still.

One might consider this Rivalry Week in the conference with the North Dakotas playing the South Dakotas and the North Dakotas play each other and the South Dakotas play each other.  While the rest of the us struggle accepting the conference doesn’t actually care about us.

January 15

North Dakota @ South Dakota State on ESPN+

The Fighting Hawks are bad on the road, and the Jackrabbits are 10-0 at home this season. Though, it should be worth considering the only team that has played against the Jackrabbits in Brookings with a better RPI than North Dakota was Oral Roberts.  The Jackrabbits shot 62% against Oral Roberts to win that game.

With health issues, neither team is particularly deep at the moment.  North Dakota does match up well with South Dakota State.  Filip Rebraca and Kienan Walter match up well against Matt Dentlinger and Douglas Wilson, and Marlon Stewart will hit some big shots to keep the game close.

Paul Sather’s offense will want to take a bunch of 3s, but South Dakota State is the best Summit League team at defending the 3.  I think the Jackrabbits win the game, but North Dakota can beat the spread.

South Dakota @ North Dakota State on ESPN+

These teams match up really well.  Their big glaring difference is that the Bison pride themselves on making the most of each and every possession, and South Dakota forces more turnovers than anyone else in the Summit League.  The big difference maker for North Dakota State losing to Oral Roberts was turnovers.  They had 4 more turnovers and lost by 6 points.

I’m going with South Dakota in this one.  It’s a big risk considering South Dakota has yet to win a road game in the conference so far, and their losses were to Western Illinois and Fort Wayne.

The Bison played Oral Roberts without Jared Samuelson and Sam Griesel.

January 16

Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois

The Golden Eagles have not won in Macomb since 2016.  They have won a game in the state of Illinois this season when they defeated Chicago State.  Also, let’s just add Chicago State to the conference already.  I get it, they’re atrocious, but I need an excuse to go to Chicago.

This game seems to lay completely on the shoulders of Kevin Obanor.  If he just wants to hang out on the perimeter and not play aggressive, it allows for Ben Pyle to not really play defense, and Western Illinois is a much better basketball team when Pyle plays well.

January 18

Oral Roberts @ Fort Wayne

Oral Roberts has not won in Fort Wayne since coming back to the Summit League (the Western Illinois and Fort Wayne trip isn’t kind to them).  They’ve also lost 5 in a row to Fort Wayne…granted that was all with John Konchar.

It’s upsetting as Oral Roberts is considered the most talented team in the league by people who actually pay attention to the conference.  They do shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and bad shot selection, something Jon Coffman’s team would love to take advantage of.

Omaha @ Denver

The team with the best RPI in the conference versus the team with the worst RPI in the conference.

The Pioneers are going to be throwing a true freshman out there to guard Matt Pile, JT Gibson hit 5 threes in Denver last season and led all scorers in the game with 22 points.

I’m going to be real sad if Omaha loses this game.

North Dakota @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

Again, due to health reasons, neither team is particularly deep at the moment.

Is it weird I don’t care and I just can’t possibly imagine the Bison two straight at home?  Aside from that, the Fighting Hawks are just a generally more inconsistent basketball team.

January 19

South Dakota State @ South Dakota on ESPN+

South Dakota is the more talented team and experienced team, by far.  They have had issues the last few weeks with Triston Simpson struggling to get back into a groove after an injury.  With the feelings of being The B School in the state, the Coyotes are out to have something to prove, and with 5 seniors in the rotation, this is their biggest opportunity to take some notoriety and respect in their own state.  This Jackrabbits squad is a team set up for the future, but the Coyotes are set up for right now.

I suppose anything can happen with an in-state rivalry, I wouldn’t know from experience.  If your school’s fraternities can get in a bar fight with another school’s fraternities on a weekly basis, you should be required to play each other in basketball.

 

My trivial Summit League rankings: Nov 12

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The first week of college basketball passed on by, and now we no longer have to discuss basketball teams in terms of what they have coming back from last season.  We can gauge them on how they beat up on division three opponents and how they kind of came close against teams from better conferences.

1. South Dakota, 3-0

My preseason ranking: 1st

The Coyotes started their season undefeated in Hawaii as part of the Outrigger Hotels Rainbow Classic with 2 neutral games against Pacific and Florida A&M, as well as a game at Hawaii.

Even though Nebraska transfer Brady Heiman was granted a waiver, it appears he’ll still be sitting out this season. The Coyotes were still able to prove they had plenty of depth with 5 players scoring in double figures over the weekend.

The Coyotes shot over 50% from the field and 50% from behind the three point line over the weekend. Three players averaged 17 points or more in Hawaii.

6’7″ true freshman Hunter Goodrick out of Australia showed off as a nice surprise averaging 7.3 points and 5.7 rebounds through the first three games.

2. Oral Roberts, 1-1

My preseason ranking: 2nd

Down by as many as 14 in the second half, Oral Roberts was able to come back and almost beat Oklahoma State. The Golden Eagles are now 2-0 against the spread this season.

With three seniors off the bench, the Golden Eagles will be a mature team and that teams will have to play a complete 40 minutes against.

Sophomore RJ Fuqua came back to the lineup after sitting out 2018-2019. Maybe it was rust, but Fuqua had 10 turnovers and shot 25% from the field through the first two games and may not be the appropriate point guard to lead this team who had the most turnovers in the Summit League this season. He almost seems to be too fast, if that’s possible.

Kevin Obanor hasn’t had a great start to the season. Coaches say the biggest jump for players can be from their freshman to their sophomore season, but sometimes a sophomore slump can occur. Obanor got in foul trouble in his first two games this season and has shot 2-of-12 on the year. He really didn’t use his large frame to get inside baskets and relied on the three just a bit much.

Still with Obanor and Fuqua struggling, the Golden Eagles took Oklahoma State to the wire and beat Houston Baptist by 14.

3. North Dakota State, 2-1

My preseason ranking: 3rd

The Bison haven’t started as hot as they would have hoped to, shooting 29% on threes, but it’s the North Dakota State Bison and they will come around.

4. Omaha, 2-1

My preseason ranking: 4th

The suspension of KJ Robinson has allowed for Ayo Akinwole to step up into a starring role, and allow Zach Thornhill and Wanjang Tut to showcase their talents as they’re being integrated into the starting lineup.

Without Robinson, the Mavericks are averaging nearly 15 turnovers a game.

Not having Robinson and UMKC transfer Marco Smith, the Mavericks are only playing with 7 players, which is depth that won’t get you too far in conference season.

5. South Dakota State, 3-0

My preseason ranking: 8th

The Jackrabbits are 3-0 with a team entirely made up of newcomers. We’ll have a little to compare them to as their first opponent, UT Rio Grande Valley will square off against North Dakota State this Friday.

Sophomore Matt Dentlinger was a huge surprise notching a double-double in their home opener.

Junior college transfer Douglas Wilson is on his way to being candidate for Newcomer of the Year, averaging 21 points and 8.7 rebounds through three games.

6. North Dakota, 1-0

My preseason ranking: 5th

The Fighting Hawks haven’t fought too hard, only playing one game so far against division three Crown College.

Paul Sather’s team will play the opposite of opponents tonight when they faces off against Gonzaga.

7. Fort Wayne, 1-2

My preseason ranking: 7th

The Mastodons only beat Division 3 Manchester by 11 points?

With not much of a point guard presence, the Mastodons look lost on offense and everything appears to be played in random.

8. Denver, 1-1

My preseason ranking: 9th 

The team everyone thought would get beat up by everyone this season actually has not looked bad to start the season.

With an 11 point loss to Colorado State and an 12 point win over Utah Valley, the young team can look to build on some confidence. They were able to beat Utah Valley with Ade Murkey scoring just 9 points, and people said the Pioneers would live and die with Murkey.

9. Western Illinois, 0-2

My preseason ranking: 6th

I don’t even want to talk about Western Illinois right now. They’re 0-2 with an understandable loss to Indiana and a 2 point loss at home to Stetson. They lost at home against Stetson only committing 5 turnovers in the game.