Jace Townsend

Summit League predictions: Feb 12-16

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February 12th

Western Illinois @ South Dakota on ESPN+

I’ve got this idea for a movie.  It’s like a comedy version of “The Expendables.”  We round up them comedy Hollywood folk like: Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell, Jim Carrey, Bill Murray, Steve Martin, Steve Carell, Dave Chappelle, Tina Fey, Jerry Seinfeld, and more and it’s just a movie about them playing themselves trying to come up with a parody to “The Expendables” but none of them can stay on track long enough to put together a movie, and they get in a bunch of craziness along the way.

Okay, was that a bigger waste of time to read about, or would it have been a bigger waste of time to hear about a basketball game we already know the outcome to?

Omaha @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

Think about how much the Mavericks had to overcome to defeat the Golden Eagles in Baxter Arena.  Now think of how bad JT Gibson has been struggling shooting the basketball, he’s shot 15% on threes over the last three games, and 23% overall from the field.  Also throw in the fact that Zach Thornhill stole the ball and sprinted down the court to throw down a monstrous dunk as time expired when the Mavericks were already up by 5, and how that must have upset the Golden Eagles.

February 14th

Denver @ South Dakota State

Fort Wayne @ North Dakota State on ESPN+

I’m going over these games together, as it’s fitting both of these match ups take place on Valentine’s Day.  South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the most beloved teams in the Summit League, so I find it ironic they both get home games on Valentine’s Day against the two teams with the least amount of love in the Summit.  Fort Wayne won’t even be in the conference next season, and Denver wishes they weren’t in the conference next season.

It’s so beautiful The Summit League honored Valentine’s Day with match ups that make you feel like you’re watching a bad relationship end, and another game that just plays out like an abusive relationship you want to see end, but the Pioneers think they cannot find anything better.

February 15th

North Dakota @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

The Summit League and ESPN3 invite you to take in a basketball production so low in quality you’ll question if the broadcasters are in an active pursuit to ruin your Saturday.  Yes, tune in to listen to two grown men get paid to mispronounce 19 year old kids’ last names, as they dribble the ball off their knees and miss contested driving floaters 18 feet away from the basket for some damn reason.  You’ll be so frustrated watching this game, you may even take up reading novels again.

Why take Western Illinois in this game, you ask? Just because they are the home team, and every team in this conference has been so bad on the road that it just seems like a safe bet? That, yeah sure, but also because these teams aren’t far enough away in talent, depth, or just about anything, but CJ Duff is a good enough defender to throw Marlon Stewart off on the road to give the Leathernecks an actual chance in a basketball game.  Also, Ben Pyle has a chance to outplay Kienan Walter on the perimeter and go off for a big day, and whenever Pyle plays big, the Leathernecks play big. I get that’s rare.

South Dakota @ Oral Roberts on ESPN3

The Golden Eagles have already lost to one South Dakota team at home this season.  Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor aren’t great at defending big guys on the perimeter like Tyler Hagedorn.

February 16

Fort Wayne @ South Dakota State on ESPN+

Things Fort Wayne would have to do to win this basketball game:

  • Be good at perimeter defense to slow down Douglas Wilson and Matt Dentlinger
  • Actually, be good at defense in general
  • Be good on the road
  • Not turn the ball over
  • Make free throws

Things South Dakota State has to do to win this game

  • Show up

Denver @ Omaha

Jace Townsend had to shoot 8-of-10 on threes to give the Pioneers a win in Denver, and that’s not likely to happen on the road at Omaha.  The Pioneers shot 55% overall from the field in that game, and they are capable of shooting well on the road, but the young Pioneers have a tough weekend on the road at South Dakota State and Omaha.

JT Gibson is going to have to get out of his current shooting slump for the Mavericks not to drop another game at home.  With the lack of depth of the Mavericks, they cannot afford one of their captains shooting 23% from the floor.  Not many teams could.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A biased Summit League preseason ranking preview: 9th place

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Every season, I go through the Summit League schedule and “simulate” the games a number of times based on different factors.

By “simulate” I mean I go through the schedule and assign wins and losses based on whatever I’m feeling and then repeat based on whatever I’m feeling the next week. Some weeks, I base it on overall talent, the next week might be experience, and yadda yadda yadda. I end up adding all the wins and losses and come up with standings. It’s not a perfect science, but nothing really is as preseason rankings are generally pretty stupid.

Today, we’re going to look at who came in 9th in those rankings.

Denver

Projected Conference Wins: 1 to 4

Projected Regular Season Finish: 7th to 9th

Returning Key Players: Ade Murkey (Sr), David Nzekwesi (So), Jace Townsend (So)

Last year was supposed to be The Year for the the Pioneers. With seniors Joe Rosga, Ronnie Harrell, and Tory Stewart-Miller the Pioneers appeared to have the best senior trio in the league, but nothing ever really came together for the talented Denver squad.

Head Coach Rodney Billups admitted he had been doing some things as a coach that created a bad locker room, and he has changed all of that for the better of the team (it might be possible Billups is in over his head).

Adding Harrell and Stewart-Miller to the roster last season was like adding two solid actors to a sequel to an okay, but not great, movie, but then it just turns into a heaping pile of crap because of bad production and directing. There is probably an example for this, but I try to erase bad movies out of my mind. Like “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” instead of erasing past relationships, I erase bad movies. I’m sure if there was a sequel to that movie, they would add talented actors, and it would be terrible. If there is a low budget sequel on Netflix or something, I have not seen it, and I am sorry for wasting your time with this non sequential rant.

Last season was going to be the Pioneers moment, and now their team appears to be worse than that roster (on paper).

Aside from losing their seniors, Denver had the following players transfer…

  • Would be junior forward Donoven Carlisle (4.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 50.5 fg%) to Texas-Permin Basin (Division 2)
  • Would be junior forward Jake Krafka (only played 3 games in 2018-2019 due to injury) to St. Edwards (Division 2)
  • Would be junior guard Elvin Rodriguez (3.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 41.4 fg%) to Texas-Permin Basin (Division 2)

It’s unlikely any of those guys were going to be stars, but that is still a loss of experienced role players.  Denver’s roster will have a total of 185 division one games played between the players, which is the least in the Summit League. So they aren’t experienced, and the experience they do have is failure, so it depends on what you consider experience. This was a long stretch of a reference to Thanos and Loki’s conversation in “Avengers: Infinity War.”

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Denver does return 45% of their scoring offense from Summit League play last season, that ranks 7th in the conference.

Their Big 3 is likely to be the already mentioned Murkey, Nzekwesi, and Townsend.

Murkey is the only senior on the roster.

Nzekwesi is a 6’9″ 245lbs sophomore, who efficiently scored 10 points per game as a freshman in the conference last season shooting 60% from the field in 17 minutes per game. Denver should be excited about Nzekwesi, he could be an all conference player in the future.

Townsend is a 6’3″ sophomore guard, who averaged 7.3 points per game against the Summit League last season, and coach Rodney Billups has stated that Townsend had a great Summer and will likely be the Pioneers’ first option on offense.

Billups also lost his 3 assistant coaches, and will have an entirely new coaching staff in 2019-2020. Assistant Coach Dwight Thorne had been the Director of Basketball Operations the last 3 seasons for Denver, but will now be in his first year in his role as an Assistant Coach.

Teams made up of mostly newcomers and little experience have seen success before, but it seems unlikely for this team. This team has the least amount of chemistry with their coaching staff and their players.

If I were a Denver fan, I wouldn’t put a lot of confidence in Billups making something out an inexperienced roster.

There is always hope to have some guy like South Dakota’s Standley Umude to go from averaging 1 point per game and going up to 14.4 points per game as a sophomore and landing on the All Conference team, but there really isn’t a likely candidate on the roster for that type of guy.  During the Summit League media day, Billups didn’t mention anyone who he expected to step up like that. He only really mentioned Townsend potentially becoming their leading scorer.

One thing that was surprising to hear Billups claim was freshman center Robert Jones has an extremely hard work ethic and has potential to be an elite defender in the league…and he wished David Nzekwesi had that work ethic because it would make Nzekwesi the best player in the league.

This Pioneers have gotten worse and worse under Rodney Billups, and they could be even worse this season.

Denver does get to host Air Force, New Mexico State, and Wyoming at home this year, and that’s pretty cool for them to have a fun home schedule.

Billups at one point claimed his players didn’t really like him after last season, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be fond of him when they’re losing to New Mexico State and Wyoming at home by 40.

The Pioneers will be one of three Summit League teams to never have three consecutive road conference games, and that can help keep the young team fresh. Unlike the other two teams (South Dakota State and Western Illinois) with that advantage, the Pioneers also never have three consecutive home games.

The Denver’s 3 wins last season were all off of the team having a schedule advantage.

The Pioneers beat North Dakota State by 15 on a Wednesday night, the first week of the Winter semester, and the Bison had to get back on a plane to get back to Fargo to play their instate rival North Dakota that weekend. The Bison shot 40% in that game and 27% on threes.

They followed that up beating Oral Roberts on a Sunday of the same week by 16, who had no Emmanuel Nzekwesi in the game. The Pioneers did not win again until February 28th, playing Western Illinois on a Thursday night.  The only weeknight home games during the school year will be against South Dakota and Oral Roberts, two of the best teams in the league.

Denver is going to need a lot of things to go right for them. In 2017-2018, we saw an Omaha team with a number of newcomers, and with a fast paced offense like Denver, one of the problems with the lack of chemistry on the team was players taking selfish shots. Expect something similar with the Pioneers this season.

Expect a bad season for the Pioneers

Some things to think about with basketball teams around the Summit League

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College basketball is back in two weeks, so I’ll be coming out with some of my own Summit League preaseason rankings and obviously biased team previews over the next couple weeks.

How about we start you off with a little something to think about around the Summit League.

DENVER

The Pioneers had a disaster of a season in 2018-2019. Rodney Billups’ staff  had picked up two graduate transfers, Ronnie Harrell from Creighton and Tory Stewart-Miller from Colorado, to go along with a veteran team, and the preseason expectations were high. Some even thought the Pioneers were going to be able to compete with Mike Daum and South Dakota State for a conference championship.

Unfortunately, the team had injuries up and down the roster, and Pioneers season seemed to get worse and worse as time went on. There were only 3 players on the roster who played in every game for the Pioneers last season.

The injuries allowed for more playing time and development for freshmen David Nzekwesi and Jace Townsend, who are expected to be young leaders in 2019-2020.

As the least experienced team in the Summit League, most are expecting the Pioneers to miss the conference tournament again this season. In combination with being the youngest team in the conference, the coaching staff will also have 3 assistant coaches in their first year in their roles.

One thing helping the Pioneers is that they are one of three teams in the conference to never have 3 consecutive conference road games this season. Also, with only 6 returning players, it could be difficult to scout Denver.

NORTH DAKOTA

Did you know the Fighting Hawks had the best defensive three point field goal percentage in the Summit League last season, but the worst overall defensive field goal percentage?

Another weird stat: they were 3-0 playing at home on Saturdays, and 0-4 playing on the road on Saturdays in the Summit League.

North Dakota will be returning 68% of their scoring, and that’s the 4th most in the conference. One of their best players last season, Marlon Stewart, was slowed down with injuries last season, but is apparently the healthiest he has been in a while.

It’s hard to get a feel for North Dakota with a brand new coaching staff.

Head Coach Paul Sather appears to be quite excited about redshirt freshman De’Sean Allen-Eikens, and thinks he’s a future star in the league.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The Bison were picked as the preseason favorite in the Summit League, with good reason.

They won the conference tournament last season, and they only lost Deng Geu who transferred to North Texas, so they do lose some height and energy off the bench. Dave Richman has a steady track record of finding replacements, so it’s not really something to worry about.

It’s hard not to like the Bison. One thing to think about is that Cameron Hunter was playing with an injury last season. Hunter averaged 9 points a game as a freshman and saw a drop in production his sophomore year, and he’s just going to be another weapon for the Bison if he comes back at 100%.

OMAHA

Everyone in Omaha is talking about the losses of Mitch Hahn and Zach Jackson, and yeah it’s a lot to lose.

Something no one in Omaha seems to be discussing is the losses of 6’9″ Brett Barney, 6’8″ Logan Strom, and 6’11” Evan Tricker. With just 4 upperclassmen on the roster, the Mavericks will be younger, but they’re also going to lack some serious size, even with Matt Pile on the roster.

We’re going to discuss Omaha more at a later time. I think that’s obvious.

One thing to consider…The Mavericks and the Creighton Bluejays never have a home game on the same day this season. With some energy and attention brought on with a successful 2018-2019 season, the Mavericks home games could start seeing some larger crowds.

Also, did you know that last season was the first season the Mavericks have had a winning road record since joining division one?

ORAL ROBERTS

The Golden Eagles started the conference season in 2019 with three straight wins, and they eventually faced injury situations with Emmanuel Nzekwesi and struggled with consistency.

Though, they are the biggest team in the conference, the Golden Eagles struggle with taking care of the basketball. They had the most turnovers in the Summit League last season, and teams were able to outrun them.

The Golden Eagles were picked 3rd in the preseason poll, but they are intimidating on paper.

In addition to returning 83% of their scoring from last season, the Golden Eagles are adding experience to their roster. Paul Mills’ staff added two graduate transfers and will also have point guard R.J. Fuqua coming back to the roster, who redshirted his sophomore season.

Paul Mills has also stated that Nzekwesi is 100% healthy, and had the best summer that he has ever seen in all of his years of coaching.

If Oral Roberts can cut down on the turnovers and Nzekwesi is healthy, the Golden Eagles can beat anyone in the league.  Maybe even any team in the state of Nebraska.

Purdue Fort Wayne

I initially wasn’t feeling impressed with the Mastodons. John Konchar was one of the best players ever to play in the Summit League, and I’d argue that he was a better overall player than Mike Daum. Making up that loss seems like it’s too much.

I don’t think they’ll be better than the likes of North Dakota State or South Dakota, but they’ll be competitive, and they will frustrate anyone in the league.

The ‘Dons will be adding Brian Patrick, a 6’5″ transfer from Kansas State, who didn’t see the floor much for the Wildcats, but he does have experience in 4 NCAA Tournament games. In addition to losing Konchar, the ‘Dons also lost guard Matt Weir to transfer, and I thought Fort Wayne would be light at the point guard sport. Jon Coffman landed junior college transfer point guard DeMieere Black, who was made the Honorable Mention List on JUCOrecruiting.com’s Top 100 recruits list. The website also listed him at 6’3″ and Fort Wayne’s website lists him at 6’0″, so maybe just no one knows what they’re talking about.  Fellow incoming junior college transfer Jalin Wimberly also made the list. Wimberly scored 15 points on 73% from the field as a freshman. Yikes!

Fort Wayne might be the most sneaky good team in the conference, but maybe the Summit League will sabotage the Mastodons’ last Summit League season?

The Mastodons have never been particularly deep, at least since I started paying attention to them after Omaha joined the Summit League, and last year the Mastodons had 9 players play in all 33 games on the season. Can they be that lucky with health again?

That may sound like a threat of some kind after mentioning the Summit League might be out to sabotage their season, but it’s not. Welp, this is awkward.

South Dakota

With 5 seniors and 2 juniors, the Coyotes will be the most experienced team in the Summit League.

The roster has 11,455 division one minutes played on the active roster. That’s over 1000 more minutes over the North Dakota State with the second most.

According to Jeff Goodman, Nebraska transfer Brady Heiman was granted a waiver to be immediately eligible to play this season for South Dakota. It is unclear if Heiman will still use his redshirt, but the 11,455 minutes does not include Heiman.

The Coyotes are another team we’re going to discuss more later.

South Dakota State

Who gave the Jackrabbits first place votes in the preseason poll? Seriously, who? Two people apparently did this.

I’d love to meet the two maniacs who went camping on the hottest day of the year, saw who could chug a bottle of Fireball the fastest, then had a candy corn eating contest, bumped each other in the head, and then rolled down a hill into a bee’s nest…then apparently came to and said: “Yeah, South Dakota State is definitely better than North Dakota State, South Dakota, and Oral Roberts.”

The Preseason Summit League Notes in the press release for the preseason rankings said something nice about all the teams in the conference except the Jackrabbits. They couldn’t even think of a positive note about this team, but two people thought they’d be the best team in the conference.

The Jackrabbits lost the Dauminator, their top 4 scorers, and their head coach.

Western Illinois

Riding the confidence of upsetting South Dakota State, and almost beating North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament, this Leatherneck team could be the most talented and well rounded team Billy Wright has had at Western Illinois. I understand that isn’t saying much, but it’s true.