Robert Jones

Summit League predictions: Feb 19-22

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February 19th

South Dakota State @ North Dakota on ESPN+

Look, I’m kind of rooting for the Fighting Hawks in this one, since I picked the Jackrabbits 5th in my preseason rankings and I don’t want to look so stupid; but I cannot find much of a reason for North Dakota to be a favorite in this game.

North Dakota State @ South Dakota on ESPN3

The Bison won their first match up with the Coyotes in Fargo by 2 points. It was a weird ending with a late offensive foul call on Cody Kelley. It was a foul that could have gone either way, and even the referee stood there for a few seconds trying to figure out what to call.  Expect the senior loaded Coyotes to come out focused against the Bison, as they’re also looking to secure a top 2 seed in the conference tournament.

February 20th

Omaha @ Fort Wayne

The Mastodons are not perfect at home. They’ve dropped home games to South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and North Dakota State.  I’m hoping a dunk by Marlon Ruffin, which didn’t even count, will spark a fire in the Mavericks through the rest of the season.

The ‘Dons are also a young basketball team, and the younger teams tend to get worse as the season goes on. The big difference in their match up with the Mavericks earlier in the season was experience. Late in the game, the youth of the Mastodons’ point guards became an issue against the likes of JT Gibson, Ayo Akinwole, and KJ Robinson.  Jon Coffman said that, I did not say that.

Oral Roberts @ Denver

Matt Pile dominated the Pioneers down low, I can only imagine Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor will do much of the same.  Especially since they already did once this season.

Robert Jones is eventually going to be so good, though.  Hopefully he doesn’t transfer when Rodney Billups gets fired.

February 21st

Omaha @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

Man, I’m just being super biased this week.  The Leathernecks will have a week of rest coming into this game, but it just seems as if these players have given up on Billy Wright, and maybe a week of rest and getting out of any type of rhythm is a bad thing for a team so horrendous at offense.

How crazy would it be if Denver ended up going 2-1 in their last two games and ended up in the Summit League Tournament?  Maybe that saves Rodney Billups’ job…maybe a youthful Denver team sees a youthful South Dakota State team in the Summit League Tournament.  That would be madness.  Some might even call it madness in March.

North Dakota State @ North Dakota on ESPN3

Tough week for North Dakota. They play the two toughest teams in the Summit League at home.  Maybe they drop both games on purpose in hopes of falling to 7th in the conference so they potentially play on Saturday during the Summit League Tournament to get an extra day off in the event they win.  Maybe they don’t.

February 22nd

South Dakota @ South Dakota State on ESPN+

You’re not reading this anymore, are you?

I just think the Coyotes need and want this game more than the Jackrabbits.

 

My trivial Summit League rankings: Jan 6

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How is it going? Has the New Year been pretty good to you? Do you have those 6 pack abs yet?  Nope, well that sucks.  At least there is basketball.

I wrote a post for an Oral Roberts at Omaha preview for Saturday, but forgot to hit the “publish” button, so here we are.  We’re going to do some rankings out of my genuine incompetence.

1st – Omaha, 9-8 (2-0)

Last week’s ranking: 3rd

The Mavericks have won three consecutive tough games in a row, however, they have all been at home.  Omaha will face a tough test with three straight road games.

Omaha has 4 veteran leaders who can help power them through tough moments in games, combining that with sophomore role players like Zach Thornhill, Wanjang Tut, and Marlon Ruffin will make the Mavericks a tough beat for anyone in the conference.

Also, it should be worth noting the Mavericks started 2020 with a three point field goal by Tut and two swishes at the free throw line by Matt Pile.

2nd – North Dakota State, 11-5, (2-0)

Last week’s ranking: 2nd

Why would Omaha jump over North Dakota State for the top ranking when they’re both 2-0 in the conference?  The Mavericks defeated Oral Roberts and South Dakota State, two teams who received 1st Place votes in the Summit League Preseason Coaches’ Poll.  North Dakota State defeated Denver and Western Illinois, two of the worst teams in the Summit League.

3rd – South Dakota State, 11-5 (2-1)

Last week’s ranking: 5th

After losing to Omaha, the Jackrabbits defeated Oral Roberts and then gave a full out beat down to Western Illinois.

This has been with a lack of depth due to injuries to Brandon Key and Tray Buchanan, and with only returning 15% of their scoring from last season.  I guess I’m impressed.

Luckily, for the Jackrabbits, they are loved by the Summit League office. This week will be their toughest week, travel wise, as they travel to Denver and then all the way to Fort Wayne, Indiana to play the Mastodons.  Pretty cool it comes on winter break.

Aside from my psycho conspiracy theory, prior to the start of the season Eric Henderson said this team was going to have to play an unselfish brand of basketball and the team was going to have to make up their loss in scoring from last season as an entire unit.  They have done just that, and they have started the conference season off strong.

4th – North Dakota, 8-8, (2-0)

Last week’s ranking: 6th

When reviewing the Fighting What Are They Nows over the summer, I was impressed at how much they had returning and it appeared as if Paul Sather could be a great fit for what they had as a team.

North Dakota has won 3 of their last 4, one of those wins at Nebraska.  North Dakota might be real, and another team to showcase just how deep and even the Summit League is this year.

Also, Marlon Stewart is averaging 25.5 points, 6 rebounds, and 7.5 assists to start off the Summit League this season.  That’s okay.

5th – South Dakota, 10-7, (1-2)

Injuries plagued the Coyotes last season, and much of the same has happened this season.  Senior point guard Triston Simpson was able to return at the start of the Summit League season, but the Coyotes dropped road games to Western Illinois and Fort Wayne, as Simpson struggled.

They also defeated Denver by just 2 points at home.  The Coyotes’ next three games will be against Omaha, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State.  This could be another long season if the Coyotes do not find themselves at full strength soon.

You could argue that none of this really matters, as all that matters in this league is who wins the Summit League championship game.  This was supposed to be the Coyotes’ year, and Todd Lee’s expectations for this team was to win the regular season and to at least make the NIT.

6th – Oral Roberts, 7-8 (0-2)

Last week’s ranking: 4th

The Golden Eagles dropped their first two conference games, and will have two tough tests at home as both North Dakota schools make their way to Tulsa…also North Dakota schools traveling to Oklahoma in January has got to be like traveling to Phoenix for a normal person.

Oral Roberts really should have beat Omaha. They had the size advantage in a generally evenly called game by the referees, but poor shot selection and turnovers have been an issue for this team for two seasons.

7th – Purdue Fort Wayne, 8-9, (1-1)

Last week’s ranking: 7th

It’s nice Fort Wayne was able to take advantage of a hobbled South Dakota team, but as the only person in Omaha who has watched the Mastodons play this season, I can tell you this team has a real problem with execution and finishing.

8th – Western Illinois, 4-9, (1-2)

Last week’s ranking: 9th

Congratulations to the Leathernecks on winning their conference opener and starting off the conference season with less fear of not making the Summit League tournament, like past seasons.  Billy Wright must be very proud.

Western Illinois’ next three games will be at home against Fort Wayne, Denver, and Oral Roberts.  Oral Roberts has not won in Macomb since 2016.  I think Western Illinois treats Oral Roberts coming to Macomb like their Mega Bowl.

If the Leathernecks can win their next three games, you know what, I’m not going to draw any conclusions, if they win their next three games they will be 4-2 in the conference and that’s all I have to say about that.

9th – Denver, 4-13 (0-3)

Last week’s ranking: 8th

No one had high expectations for this team for a reason. David Nzekwesi hasn’t turned out the way anyone thought he would, and Rodney Billups calling out his work ethic in public probably didn’t help.

Freshmen Robert Jones and Roscoe Eastmond have showed potential as future stars in the league, though.

 

 

 

 

A biased Summit League preseason ranking preview: 9th place

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Every season, I go through the Summit League schedule and “simulate” the games a number of times based on different factors.

By “simulate” I mean I go through the schedule and assign wins and losses based on whatever I’m feeling and then repeat based on whatever I’m feeling the next week. Some weeks, I base it on overall talent, the next week might be experience, and yadda yadda yadda. I end up adding all the wins and losses and come up with standings. It’s not a perfect science, but nothing really is as preseason rankings are generally pretty stupid.

Today, we’re going to look at who came in 9th in those rankings.

Denver

Projected Conference Wins: 1 to 4

Projected Regular Season Finish: 7th to 9th

Returning Key Players: Ade Murkey (Sr), David Nzekwesi (So), Jace Townsend (So)

Last year was supposed to be The Year for the the Pioneers. With seniors Joe Rosga, Ronnie Harrell, and Tory Stewart-Miller the Pioneers appeared to have the best senior trio in the league, but nothing ever really came together for the talented Denver squad.

Head Coach Rodney Billups admitted he had been doing some things as a coach that created a bad locker room, and he has changed all of that for the better of the team (it might be possible Billups is in over his head).

Adding Harrell and Stewart-Miller to the roster last season was like adding two solid actors to a sequel to an okay, but not great, movie, but then it just turns into a heaping pile of crap because of bad production and directing. There is probably an example for this, but I try to erase bad movies out of my mind. Like “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” instead of erasing past relationships, I erase bad movies. I’m sure if there was a sequel to that movie, they would add talented actors, and it would be terrible. If there is a low budget sequel on Netflix or something, I have not seen it, and I am sorry for wasting your time with this non sequential rant.

Last season was going to be the Pioneers moment, and now their team appears to be worse than that roster (on paper).

Aside from losing their seniors, Denver had the following players transfer…

  • Would be junior forward Donoven Carlisle (4.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 50.5 fg%) to Texas-Permin Basin (Division 2)
  • Would be junior forward Jake Krafka (only played 3 games in 2018-2019 due to injury) to St. Edwards (Division 2)
  • Would be junior guard Elvin Rodriguez (3.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 41.4 fg%) to Texas-Permin Basin (Division 2)

It’s unlikely any of those guys were going to be stars, but that is still a loss of experienced role players.  Denver’s roster will have a total of 185 division one games played between the players, which is the least in the Summit League. So they aren’t experienced, and the experience they do have is failure, so it depends on what you consider experience. This was a long stretch of a reference to Thanos and Loki’s conversation in “Avengers: Infinity War.”

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Denver does return 45% of their scoring offense from Summit League play last season, that ranks 7th in the conference.

Their Big 3 is likely to be the already mentioned Murkey, Nzekwesi, and Townsend.

Murkey is the only senior on the roster.

Nzekwesi is a 6’9″ 245lbs sophomore, who efficiently scored 10 points per game as a freshman in the conference last season shooting 60% from the field in 17 minutes per game. Denver should be excited about Nzekwesi, he could be an all conference player in the future.

Townsend is a 6’3″ sophomore guard, who averaged 7.3 points per game against the Summit League last season, and coach Rodney Billups has stated that Townsend had a great Summer and will likely be the Pioneers’ first option on offense.

Billups also lost his 3 assistant coaches, and will have an entirely new coaching staff in 2019-2020. Assistant Coach Dwight Thorne had been the Director of Basketball Operations the last 3 seasons for Denver, but will now be in his first year in his role as an Assistant Coach.

Teams made up of mostly newcomers and little experience have seen success before, but it seems unlikely for this team. This team has the least amount of chemistry with their coaching staff and their players.

If I were a Denver fan, I wouldn’t put a lot of confidence in Billups making something out an inexperienced roster.

There is always hope to have some guy like South Dakota’s Standley Umude to go from averaging 1 point per game and going up to 14.4 points per game as a sophomore and landing on the All Conference team, but there really isn’t a likely candidate on the roster for that type of guy.  During the Summit League media day, Billups didn’t mention anyone who he expected to step up like that. He only really mentioned Townsend potentially becoming their leading scorer.

One thing that was surprising to hear Billups claim was freshman center Robert Jones has an extremely hard work ethic and has potential to be an elite defender in the league…and he wished David Nzekwesi had that work ethic because it would make Nzekwesi the best player in the league.

This Pioneers have gotten worse and worse under Rodney Billups, and they could be even worse this season.

Denver does get to host Air Force, New Mexico State, and Wyoming at home this year, and that’s pretty cool for them to have a fun home schedule.

Billups at one point claimed his players didn’t really like him after last season, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be fond of him when they’re losing to New Mexico State and Wyoming at home by 40.

The Pioneers will be one of three Summit League teams to never have three consecutive road conference games, and that can help keep the young team fresh. Unlike the other two teams (South Dakota State and Western Illinois) with that advantage, the Pioneers also never have three consecutive home games.

The Denver’s 3 wins last season were all off of the team having a schedule advantage.

The Pioneers beat North Dakota State by 15 on a Wednesday night, the first week of the Winter semester, and the Bison had to get back on a plane to get back to Fargo to play their instate rival North Dakota that weekend. The Bison shot 40% in that game and 27% on threes.

They followed that up beating Oral Roberts on a Sunday of the same week by 16, who had no Emmanuel Nzekwesi in the game. The Pioneers did not win again until February 28th, playing Western Illinois on a Thursday night.  The only weeknight home games during the school year will be against South Dakota and Oral Roberts, two of the best teams in the league.

Denver is going to need a lot of things to go right for them. In 2017-2018, we saw an Omaha team with a number of newcomers, and with a fast paced offense like Denver, one of the problems with the lack of chemistry on the team was players taking selfish shots. Expect something similar with the Pioneers this season.

Expect a bad season for the Pioneers