Cody Kelley

Summit League predictions: Feb 19-22

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February 19th

South Dakota State @ North Dakota on ESPN+

Look, I’m kind of rooting for the Fighting Hawks in this one, since I picked the Jackrabbits 5th in my preseason rankings and I don’t want to look so stupid; but I cannot find much of a reason for North Dakota to be a favorite in this game.

North Dakota State @ South Dakota on ESPN3

The Bison won their first match up with the Coyotes in Fargo by 2 points. It was a weird ending with a late offensive foul call on Cody Kelley. It was a foul that could have gone either way, and even the referee stood there for a few seconds trying to figure out what to call.  Expect the senior loaded Coyotes to come out focused against the Bison, as they’re also looking to secure a top 2 seed in the conference tournament.

February 20th

Omaha @ Fort Wayne

The Mastodons are not perfect at home. They’ve dropped home games to South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and North Dakota State.  I’m hoping a dunk by Marlon Ruffin, which didn’t even count, will spark a fire in the Mavericks through the rest of the season.

The ‘Dons are also a young basketball team, and the younger teams tend to get worse as the season goes on. The big difference in their match up with the Mavericks earlier in the season was experience. Late in the game, the youth of the Mastodons’ point guards became an issue against the likes of JT Gibson, Ayo Akinwole, and KJ Robinson.  Jon Coffman said that, I did not say that.

Oral Roberts @ Denver

Matt Pile dominated the Pioneers down low, I can only imagine Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor will do much of the same.  Especially since they already did once this season.

Robert Jones is eventually going to be so good, though.  Hopefully he doesn’t transfer when Rodney Billups gets fired.

February 21st

Omaha @ Western Illinois on ESPN3

Man, I’m just being super biased this week.  The Leathernecks will have a week of rest coming into this game, but it just seems as if these players have given up on Billy Wright, and maybe a week of rest and getting out of any type of rhythm is a bad thing for a team so horrendous at offense.

How crazy would it be if Denver ended up going 2-1 in their last two games and ended up in the Summit League Tournament?  Maybe that saves Rodney Billups’ job…maybe a youthful Denver team sees a youthful South Dakota State team in the Summit League Tournament.  That would be madness.  Some might even call it madness in March.

North Dakota State @ North Dakota on ESPN3

Tough week for North Dakota. They play the two toughest teams in the Summit League at home.  Maybe they drop both games on purpose in hopes of falling to 7th in the conference so they potentially play on Saturday during the Summit League Tournament to get an extra day off in the event they win.  Maybe they don’t.

February 22nd

South Dakota @ South Dakota State on ESPN+

You’re not reading this anymore, are you?

I just think the Coyotes need and want this game more than the Jackrabbits.

 

My trivial Summit League rankings: Jan 21 (also some interesting stats)

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So I didn’t do this last week as I felt there really wasn’t much of a change in the rankings, but last week was a big week for the Summit League. I know you missed it last week.

1st – North Dakota State, 13-6 (4-1)

My last ranking: 2nd

Huge week for the Bison last week. They picked up 2 home wins, they beat South Dakota at home with a last second shot by Tyson Ward after drawing up an amazing play to get him a free lane to the basket for an easy layup.  Then they were able to bring back senior Jared Samuelson back into the lineup to help beat their in-state rival North Dakota.

Interesting stat: Vinnie Shahid has not missed a free throw in over a month.

2nd – Oral Roberts, 11-8 (4-2)

My last ranking: 6th

After dropping their two first conference games on the road, the Golden Eagles have won 4 in a row.  Including two beat downs on the road over Western Illinois and Fort Wayne.

Interesting stat: In non-conference games, Oral Roberts had the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Summit League. In conference games, Oral Roberts has the best assist-to-turnover ratio.

3rd – South Dakota, 12-8 (3-3)

My last ranking: 5th

The Coyotes came close to picking up a win in Fargo. With the game tied, Cody Kelley drove into the lane late in the game, but was called for a charge in just an awkward call. The play was awkward, he ran into a Bison player and fell to the ground while trying to make a pass to an open teammate.  The official seemed to even take a second to process what happened before making the call.

The Coyotes picked up a win against their in-state rival on Sunday, and shot 64% from the field. Holy schnitzels.

South Dakota has been struggling lately as they’ve been waiting for Triston Simpson to get back to playing at full strength.  Simpson was 8-of-9 from the floor against South Dakota State, so yeah, I’m thinking he’s back.

Interesting stat: Tyler Hagedorn is currently 3rd in division one in three point field goal percentage, shooting 55% on threes.

4th – South Dakota State, 14-8 (5-2)

My last ranking: 3rd

Their star player Douglas Wilson did not play against South Dakota. That won’t turn out well if he is out for an extended period of time. Senior point guard Brandon Key did come back in limited minutes against the Coyotes.

Interesting stat: The Jackrabbits have the most players averaging at least 10 points per game in Summit League play with 5 players at with least 11 points per game.

5th – Omaha, 10-10 (3-2)

My last ranking: 1st

Oh boy. A 3-of-17 performance from JT Gibson in a 15 point loss to Denver. The Mavericks are a young team, and typically young teams don’t do well on the road, so it’s a good thing the Mavericks will have 4 games in a row at home.  Unfortunately, 5 of their last 7 games will be on the road, and I’ve said it before, it is extremely important for the Mavericks to be in first place in the conference when they head to South Dakota State on February 8th.

Interesting stat: With 3 blocks at Denver, Matt Pile passed Tre’Shawn Thurman with the most career blocks since the Mavericks transitioned to Division 1.  Matt Pile, as of Tuesday, is currently tied for 20th in Division 1 in rebounds averaging 10.3 per game.

6th – North Dakota, 8-12 (2-4)

My last ranking: 4th

The Fighting Hawks have dropped 4 in a row, three of those games were on the road at Oral Roberts, Denver, and Western Illinois.  Now, they’ll have a chance to get back on the right track with home games against Western Illinois and Denver this week.

Interesting stat: North Dakota averages the most turnovers in the conference.  They are also ranked behind North Dakota State in every single statistical category except for rebounds…but the Bison do average a better rebounding margin.

7th – Fort Wayne, 9-11 (2-3)

My last ranking: 7th

The Mastodons’ two conference wins are against Western Illinois and South Dakota, who was inserting Triston Simpson back into the lineup after an injury.  The Dons are also the only team in the conference who haven’t really faced an injury issue this season.

Interesting stat: Usually one of the highest scoring offenses in the Summit League, the Mastodons are currently 9th in points per game, nearly 4 points less per game than Western Illinois.  The Mastodons are also last in field goal percentage, three point field goal percentage, and free throw percentage.  So it actually should not shock you that they average the most offensive rebounds in the conference play.

8th – Western Illinois, 5-11 (2-4)

My last ranking: 8th

I guess the Leathernecks have also yet to face a real injury to any of their players.

Interesting stat: Someone recently was telling me Brandon Gilbeck got so many blocks last season because he had so many opportunities as the Leathernecks were so bad at defense he had to erase all of their mistakes.  Currently in conference play, the Leathernecks give up the most points per game, have the worst defensive field goal percentage, and the worst rebounding margin.  It’s probably not good they also shoot the 8th worst field goal percentage on the offensive end.

9th – Denver, 5-15 (1-5)

My last ranking: 9th

Denver beat Omaha and I’m so furious I’m going to throw my laptop at someone!

There is chatter among Pioneer fans debating if Denver should let Rodney Billups ride out his contract through next season, or fire him at the end of this season.  I don’t think beating Omaha should help the argument for him not being fired, but it certainly doesn’t hurt it.

Interesting stat: Denver actually averages the 2nd least amount of turnovers in the Summit League, which is pretty remarkable for such a young team.  They do average the most fouls and send their opposition to the line more than anyone, though.

 

A biased and trivial Summit League preseason ranking preview: The top tier

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Here it is. The top 3 teams in this exercise.

I mentioned there are 3 tiers to the Summit League. The bottom tier, which is just Denver. The middle tier which was 5 teams who’s seasons will depend on health and rest against each other, as they have some talent, but may not be that deep.

Then we have the top tier here. These three teams are stacked with talent, and will be able to survive health issues, should they arise. The top tier are the locks to finish in the top three. They’ll all be competing for a top 2 spot in the Summit League tournament for that extra day of rest.

All three teams should end up receiving Mid Major Top 25 votes at some point in the season.

alec

South Dakota

Projected Conference Wins: 11 to 13

Projected Regular Season finish: 1st to 3rd

Key returning players: Brandon Armstrong (Sr), Tyler Hagedorn (Sr), Cody Kelley (Sr), Tyler Peterson (Sr), Triston Simpson (Sr), Stanley Umude (Jr),

The Coyotes have one of the best teams the Summit League has seen on paper in a while. They’ve really got it all: size, depth, experience, athleticism, shooting, speed, defense.

In Todd Lee’s first year, South Dakota faced injuries up and down the roster, sometimes only playing 7 players on a given night. 6’10” Tyler Hagedorn faced an injury in the beginning of the year elected to use his redshirt for the 2018-2019 season.

Hagedorn was selected as a 2nd Team All Conference player in the preseason. He was actually healthy and practicing with the team half way though the season, but he didn’t want to play just half a season. Without Hagedorn in the lineup, South Dakota didn’t have a go to player in the post, and it obviously impacted the Coyotes’ season as they lost 11 games by 7 points or less, 6 games in the Summit League. With Hagedorn back in the lineup, the Coyotes can close those gaps and turn this season around.

According to Jeff Goodman, Nebraska transfer Brady Heiman was granted a waiver and will be eligible to play this season. Heiman did not play in South Dakota’s exhibition game against Concordia St. Paul, so it’s still unclear if the 6’10” sophomore will play or still use a redshirt this season.

Lee claimed in order to be good at this level in college basketball, you have to be experienced, and the Coyotes certainly have experience.

The combined total of division one minutes on the Coyotes’ active roster is 11455 career minutes. That’s more than 1000 minutes over the next closest in the Summit League, North Dakota State. The 11455 minutes, does not include Heiman’s minutes at Nebraska.

If Heiman doesn’t play, he’ll be on the practice squad and scout team with Nebraska-Kearney transfer Kanon Koster and Augustana transfer A.J. Plitzuweit. They could have some competitive practices.

The Coyotes are returning 85% (2nd most) of their conference scoring from last season, 75% (2nd most) of their conference rebounding, and 82% (5th most) of their 3 point field goals made in conference play.  None of that is including Tyler Hagedorn.

If you recall, I said there might not be anyone in the league with 40 better minutes at point guard than Omaha with KJ Robinson and Ayo Akinwole, well, South Dakota will have 40 great minutes at point guard with seniors Triston Simpson and Cody Kelley. Simpson also did not play in the Coyotes’s exhibition game, so maybe the injuries are already starting to mount up. They will also have freshman Kruz Perrot-Hunt at point guard, who played for the same New Zealand basketball organization as Nebraska’s Tai Webster.

I don’t know how to pronounce Perrot-Hunt, but I hope it sounds Parrot Hunt.

Lee said with such an experienced roster, it takes a load off the shoulders of the coaches, and if his staff can’t see success, then that means he’s not that good of a coach. If he can’t finish in the top 3 with this team, it probably will be all of his fault and someone will point and laugh. Except for a Coyote fan, they’ll probably throw fruit at him.

Oral Roberts

Projected Conference Wins: 11 to 14

Projected Regular Season Finish: 1st to 3rd

Key returning players: RJ Fuqua (So), Sam Kearns (Sr), Emmanuel Nzekwesi (Sr), Kevin Obanor (So), DeShang Weaver (So),

The Golden Eagles were another team to face injury problems last year. One of the best players in the league, Emmanuel Nzekwesi missed 6 conference games last year, but thankfully he was healthy enough to play against Omaha both times… Head Coach Paul Mills stated that Nzekwesi is as healthy as he has ever been, and had one of the best summers he’s ever seen anyone have in all of years of coaching, so Nzekwesi has the potential to be the best player in the league.

You’ll hear the likes of Omaha, South Dakota State, and Fort Wayne talk about trying to replace what they lost from last season, but Oral Roberts doesn’t need to bring it up. The Golden Eagles are bringing back their top 4 scorers from last season to go along with Nzekwesi.

In addition to bringing back their main core, the Golden Eagles are adding experience for immediate impacts to the roster. They are adding two graduate transfers, Deondre Burns from Arkansas-Little Rock and Ty Lazenby from Oklahoma (don’t get super duper excited, he hardly played at Oklahoma, but still).

The team is also bringing back point guard R.J. Fuqua who redshirted his sophomore season, after averaging 8 points and 3 assists as a freshman. Fuqua once had 17 points and 8 assists in a 19 point win over Omaha, so that’s cool. The Golden Eagles committed the most turnovers in the Summit League last season, which led to them committing the most fouls in the conference. If Fuqua’s return can help with the turnovers, that could help Oral Roberts win more games this season. That sounds like that’s how basketball statistics work.

Mills has said that taking care of the basketball has been a major emphasis for the team. His staff has also required the team to carry basketballs with them everywhere on campus. You know, like in the middle school when you had to dress up 2-liter bottle and pretend you had a baby. He compared it to “Remember the Titans” when they made the players carry footballs around school, but I like my comparison better.

Oral Roberts has the biggest roster in the Summit League, which creates mismatches all over the place, but those mismatches aren’t incredibly beneficial if they’re turning over the ball and giving up so many fast break opportunities to the quicker teams in the conference.

Unlike other top teams like South Dakota and North Dakota State, Oral Roberts doesn’t have an instate conference rival to fluster them in some game. It doesn’t really seem like Oral Roberts really has a rivalry with anyone in the Summit League, being so far away from everyone.

North Dakota State

Projected Conference Wins: 9 to 13

Projected Regular Season Finish: 1st to 4th

Key returning players: Sam Griesel (So), Cameron Hunter (Jr), Rocky Krueser (Jr),  Jared Samuelson (Sr), Vinnie Shahid (Sr), Tyson Ward (Sr),

It makes perfect sense for everyone to pick the Bison as the preseason favorite. They won the conference tournament last season, and they return everything to their roster except for Deng Geu.

Please remember this is all based on the regular season might shake out, and the Bison are going to be a threat to anyone on any given day. Their style of play, however, can lead to games being played close, and they can still sometimes do things like lose to Denver like they did last season.

They won the conference tournament, but the Bison are a still a team that finished tied for 3rd last season. They’re returning 85% of their scoring from last season, but they don’t have anything to impact or change that 3rd place finish, like South Dakota has Hagedorn coming back, and Oral Roberts had 3 guys with experience coming in. The Bison are simply just still good.

Cameron Hunter did see a dip in production his sophomore season as compared to his freshman season, mostly due to a wrist injury, so if he can be healthy that can be a jump for the team.

Offensively, statistically the Bison weren’t anything spectacular last season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories, yet defensively they were in the top half. This isn’t a knock at them being bad, it’s just more of a testament that they play games close and it sometimes can keep a team in the game and they can lose a head scratcher from time to time. The biggest thing on the side of the Bison is their team chemistry and experience, and that will go a long way, which is why they should finish in the top 3 in the conference.

A big obstacle of the Bison will be their schedule. Yes, everyone plays each other twice, but the Bison have a hard time with travel.

The Bison are playing at Oral Roberts, South Dakota State, Western Illinois, Omaha, and South Dakota all on weeknights; and each time they play their in-state rival North Dakota will be after tough contests with South Dakota. Last season, the Bison were 1-4 on conference road games played on Wednesdays and Thursdays, and they were 3-0 on conference Saturday away games.

A big key to winning those weeknight away games will be more consistent play from senior point guard Vinnie Shahid. Shahid struggled to adapt to the Summit League as a junior college transfer, but eventually found his stride. In a 5 game winning streak from January 26th to Valentine’s Day, Shahid scored 21.6 points per game, shot 50% on threes, and dished out 4.2 assists per game. After the streak, the Bison lost 3 of their last 4 with Shahid scoring 12.5 points per game, which includes a 19 point performance in a 1 point loss against South Dakota State.

I looked that up, because once I felt like most teams were bad on the road during weeknight games, and it wasn’t really everyone. The Bison have historically been bad playing on the road on weeknights. Other teams, not as bad.

Regardless of what happens, the Bison will be ready come March. Their style of play wears teams down, and the Bison will be able to play 12 men deep with their roster. They essentially have the best scenario for playing 3 games in 3 or 4 days.

My trivial Preseason Summit League rankings

1st  South Dakota

2nd  Oral Roberts

3rd  North Dakota State

4th  Omaha

5th  North Dakota

6th  Western Illinois

7th  Fort Wayne

8th  South Dakota State

9th  Denver