Summit League Predictions: Feb 3-6

February 3, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League Carlin Dupree, Craig Smith, Denver Pioneers, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastodons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jake Bittle, JC Fuller, John Konchar, Max Landis, Mo Evans, North Dakota State Bison, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Power Rangers, South Dakota Coyotes, Tate Stensgaard, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

I was 7-1 last week, and now I am 21-8 overall if you keeping track. You are not keeping track. I feel like I miss the most on IPFW. Oh yeah, you’re not keeping track.

I may be completely off this week. I just learned that Elizabeth Banks is going to play Rita Repulsa in the new Power Rangers epic. It’s not that I am in shock over Banks playing a villain, I am just in shock that Hollywood thinks they can make money on a Power Rangers reboot. Hopefully there is a really dark tone to the movie and gets taken seriously. I am just kidding, it will be awful. Hopefully there will be some realism in this round of the Rangers. Like, how does Angel Grove go from being completely destroyed by a Megazord versus 500 Foot Alien battle, and there is still 8th period Algebra in the same day? And this happened a few times a week. Oh, and no one can replace Amy Jo Johnson as the Pink Ranger…no one. Someone could easily replace her role in “Susie Q.”

Oh yeah, basketball…

So with the rest of the regular season, the Summit League tournament, and possible post season births; it is completely possible that the Summit League would have 4 teams finish with 20 or more wins. South Dakota State and IPFW each need 2 wins, Omaha needs 5 wins, and North Dakota State needs 6 wins. I don’t think the Summit has ever had 4 teams with 20 or more wins.

February 3rd

Omaha (7-2) @ Western Illinois (0-9) on ESPN3

The game in Omaha was a little scary for most of the 2nd half for the Mavericks. JC Fuller started off hot in the game, but then cooled down in the 2nd half. Fuller did have some interest from Omaha out of junior college, but not sure if there was an offer given by the Omaha staff. This could be why he was taunting the Omaha bench after every made shot in the first half…why couldn’t the official that gave Tre’Shawn Thurman a technical foul for taunting IPFW have been doing the game?

Omaha is a better road team…and a home team…and an overall team than Western Illinois, but can the Leathernecks really go 0-16? Daily Rpi has them going 1-15 in the Summit League with a win in their final game over South Dakota. My hope is that Western Illinois does not come out with a Hey, We Almost Had This Last Time So This Can Be Our First Win mentality; and I hope Omaha comes out with a We CANNOT Lose This Damn Game mentality. Omaha has yet to win in Macomb since transitioning to division one, so if they can win in Macomb it would be the 4th Summit League location they finally pick up a win at this season. There is a little fight left in the Leathernecks, so the game could be closer than what you might think as a Mavs fan. ESPN, as of the morning, had Omaha favored by 4 points.

Garret Covington was single handedly trying to pick up a win for his team last week at IUPUI. He scored 8 straight points in a matter of 1 minute to keep the game close in the first half, and the Jaguars really did not have much of an answer for him second half. Omaha was able to hold Covington to 4-of-13 shooting at the Baxter Arena, Tate Stensgaard became a problem for Omaha who was 13-of-15 from the floor.

February 4th

Oral Roberts (3-6) @ North Dakota State (4-4) on ESPN3

Oral Roberts beat North Dakota State in Tulsa by one point, but now the Golden Eagles have lost three games in a row. North Dakota State almost won the game in the end…which when I think about it, it’s kind of ridiculous to say someone “almost won a game in the end” in a 1 point game…

North Dakota State is rebuilding a home game winning streak, and Oral Roberts is currently on a downhill trend. The Golden Eagles average more turnovers in conference games than any other team, and every North Dakota State player appears to play better at home.

IPFW (7-2) @ South Dakota (2-7)

If Max Landis is feeling good, he could get 30 points in this game. IPFW won the last time these two teams met in Fort Wayne…Mo Evans who is no longer playing this season, had 20 points and 9 assists in that game.

Craig Smith stated after the Coyotes’ loss to Denver that the team really isn’t listening to him right now, and not playing well together at all. That’s exactly what you want going into a game with one of the best teams in the conference.

South Dakota is the worst rebounding team in the Summit, well other than Denver, and IPFW is the best rebounding team in the league.

IUPUI (7-2) @ Denver (3-6)

At first, I was all about Denver in this game with their home court advantage. Denver probably will probably still not get away from their Princeton offense, and IUPUI plays the passing lanes and steals the ball away probably 90% as well as Omaha. Jaguars beat Denver by 15 in Indiana and they can probably still win this game by at least 10.

February 6th

Denver (3-6) @ Omaha (7-2)

Omaha has a somewhat easy week with Denver and Western Illinois. This better not be a trap. Next week the Mavs have South Dakota State and North Dakota State in Omaha, both of those games should get over 3,000 in attendance. When was the last time Omaha basketball had two games in the same week with over 3,000 in attendance. The game against North Dakota State is the same day Omaha hockey plays Western Michigan. Double header!

Oral Roberts (3-6) @ South Dakota (2-7)

This is actually a really difficult one. South Dakota beat Oral Roberts in Tulsa, but Oral Roberts was playing without Obi Emegano. South Dakota does not appear to really have an answer for a healthy Emegano, but no one seems to actually have an answer for Emegano, it’s the rest of the team that needs to step up. Oral Roberts does have the needed three point shooting to defeat South Dakota.

IPFW (7-2) @ North Dakota State (4-4)

This could be a really fun, entertaining game. IPFW won by 5 in Fort Wayne a couple weeks ago, a game that John Konchar had 19 rebounds. The Bison can give Max Landis a few different looks, especially if they actually play Carlin Dupree again, just like Omaha did in the second half and he struggled against Landis. By struggled, I mean he actually missed two shots in a row at some point. This has to be the game that Landis’ minutes start catching up with him…right?

IUPUI (7-2) @ South Dakota State (7-2) on ESPN3

I’m just trying to put together the amount of revenge the Jackrabbits are going to come out with after losing to the Jaguars a few weeks ago, without Jake Bittle in the lineup.

Summit League Predictions: Jan 28-31

January 27, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League AJ Jacobson, Denver Pioneers, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastodons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, Khy Kabellis, Kory Brown, Marcellus Barksdale, Mason Archie, Max Landis, Nate Engesser, Nick Osborne, North Dakota State Bison, Obi Emegano, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Paul Miller, South Dakota Coyotes, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Tyler Flack, UNK Lopers, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

I went 6-2 at this last week, losing on a dumb gamble with Western Illinois over North Dakota State and a IUPUI 2 point win over their instate rival IPFW.

By the way, IPFW versus IUPUI had a crowd of 1500. Both are decent basketball teams, and it is an instate rivalry. Imagine that UNK was division one (heaven forbid) and they played in the Summit League and played at Omaha as two of the better teams in the league. The attendance in Omaha would get up around 4,000 people…just as the South Dakota State at South Dakota game was.

January 28

Omaha (6-1) @ South Dakota State (5-2) on ESPN3

My trivial Summit League rankings – Jan 25

January 25, 2016January 25, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League AJ Jacobson, Denver Pioneers, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastodons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, Jake Bittle, Jake White, JC Fuller, JT Gibson, Max Landis, Mike Daum, Mo Evans, North Dakota State Bison, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, South Dakota Coyotes, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, TraDeon Hollins, Tyler Flack, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

1. Omaha, 6-1

Last week: 2nd

Before the beginning of the season, the Mavericks had never won in Denver, Fargo, or Tulsa; and now they have won at all three. They also have not won at Western Illinois since transitioning to D1…so help me God… The Mavericks have also only had conference season sweeps over UMKC and IUPUI in the past. According to the ESPN3 commentators during the South Dakota State-IUPUI game a few weeks ago: you want to go undefeated at home and split your road games. That math puts you at 12-4 to (most likely) win the conference. The Mavs lost at home, so I guess they’ll just go undefeated on the road.

Jake White is currently the only player that is in the top 5 in the Summit League in points, rebounds, and field goal percentage. His three point field goal percentage is high enough to be in 3rd in the conference, but he does not attempt enough threes to qualify for that category. He is also 8th in the conference in free throw percentage, which puts at the highest free throw percentage for any player 6’6″ or taller in the league.

Tra-Deon Hollins is getting better and better offensively, which should just scare the hell out of other teams. He’s knocking down threes finally…and they are clutch threes, which Omaha desperately needed as the worst three point shooting team in the Summit. JT Gibson should be soon to add to the team’s three point shooting, right?

2. South Dakota State, 5-2

Last week: 3rd

The Jackrabbits got Jake Bittle back in time to beat Oral Roberts and South Dakota. Mike Daum continues to get better and better. Things could get real on Thursday…

The Jackrabbits still hold an RPI in the top 50.

3. IPFW, 5-2

Last week: 1st

Since the loss of Mo Evans, Max Landis has averaged 39.3 minutes per game. He only sat out a few minutes against Omaha because he got into foul trouble. Can he continue the hot shooting and carrying the team playing that many minutes? He’s shot 30% in the last two games at home, so maybe he is losing his powers.

4. North Dakota State, 4-3

Last week: 4th

In the last 5 games, AJ Jacobson is shooting 33% from the field and 28% on threes. It’s possible that Jacobson wont be on the Summit League 1st Team like it was predicted, I can think of a couple guys who can take his place… Curious if this team inserts Chris Kading back into the starting lineup when the team gets closer to the conference tournament.

5. IUPUI, 5-2

Last week: 6th

The Jags were able to knock off IPFW in Fort Wayne, so Mav fans should take a minute to thank IUPUI for this. The Jaguars have become a better team overall this season with the added offense from their transfers and newcomers. By the way, they only had 5 turnovers as a team against IPFW. Amazingly, for not being known as an offensive show, the Jaguars are 2nd in the conference in Summit League in field goal percentage behind Omaha.

6. Oral Roberts, 3-5

Last week: 5th

The Golden Eagles started the conference schedule with a on the road for a game, then home, then back on the road for one game, then back home for a game, then going on the road for two games, to come back home for South Dakota State and Omaha at home. They probably cannot wait for their three game home stretch against IUPUI, Denver, and Western Illinois.

I didn’t get to watch the Omaha-Oral Roberts game. I planned on watching it on ESPN3 on Sunday, and I got the first 10 minutes of the game, but then ESPN3 just decided that enough for me. I saw that AJ Owens did not play, I do not know why, but I watched the Golden Eagles’ game against South Dakota State and I wrote down “AJ Owens has a really quick release on his jump shot, but why? Why does a 6’9″ 260 pound guy need a quick release on his jump shot? Seriously?”

7. South Dakota, 2-5

Last week: 8th

The Coyotes were right there to defeat their instate rival, but couldn’t pull it off. They have two games on the road this week at Denver and Omaha. This is still a difficult team to figure out, and will be a tough out in the conference tournament for the 1st or 2nd seed. Tyler Flack appeared to be healthy again against South Dakota State. He had 10 points and 6 rebounds with a monstrous dunk at one point. If they can get him at 100%, the Coyotes are going to be annoying.

8. Denver, 2-5

Last week: 7th

The Pioneers only had one game last week which was a 14 point loss to Omaha. They get two games at home this week against the South Dakota schools, a split this week would be pretty reasonable.

9. Western Illinois

Last week: 9th

The Leathernecks are 0-7 and their next 5 out of their 6 games are on the road, and the one home game is against Omaha. The end of their loss to North Dakota State was phenomenal to watch. JC Fuller missed two easy shots, Jabari Sandifer missed a couple easy shots and refused to pass to a wide open Garret Covington, and it looked as if the team were not even paying attention to the coaching staff.

Summit League Predictions: Jan 13-16

January 13, 2016January 13, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League AJ Jacobson, Craig Smith, David Richman, Denver Pioneers, Devin Patterson, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastadons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, Jake Bittle, Jake White, Jamie Batish, JC Fuller, Joe Reed, John Konchar, Jon Coffman, Marcellus Barksdale, Max Landis, Mike Miklusak, Mo Evans, North Dakota State Bison, Omaha Mavericks, omavs, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Paul Miller, South Dakota Coyotes, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, The Summit League, Tre'Shawn Thurman, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

I went 4-2 last week missing on IUPUI @ Western Illinois and Omaha @ North Dakota State. Who else would have picked IUPUI over South Dakota State or Denver over Oral Roberts? I’m pretty damn happy missing on North Dakota State. I feel like Western Illinois just keeps lying to us though. They beat Wisconsin and people thought they would be a dangerous team, they still have votes in the Mid-Major 25, they returned a bunch of experience, but their shooting percentage keeps plummeting. They’re the girlfriend that keeps cheating on your buddy, and she continues telling him this is the last time, so you have to keep getting drunk and playing Rock Band with him until 4 in the morning every Saturday night to help him keeping his mind off of stuff…and really you need to tell him to just move on. Not talking from experience or anything.

January 13

South Dakota @ North Dakota State on ESPN3

The home team won each game in this series last year, which is partly why I am taking the Bison here…but mostly because the Bison are an overall better team. The Bison won in Fargo by 24 the last time these two teams played. One scary thing, (and I know I have mentioned this before) no team in the Summit League forces teams to take more threes than the Coyotes, and the Bison shoot the 2nd most threes in the league while being 7th in the league in 3 point field goal percentage. The Bison were 8-of-12 from 3 at home against Denver and 8-of-21 at home against Omaha. There are really not a lot of knock down three point shooters for the Bison, only Paul Miller and AJ Jacobson shoot higher than 30% from three. The Bison have also gone with a few different lineup changes over the last few games, which has been a little confusing, but David Richman says his players are completely fine with this.

The fun match up of the game to watch could be the forward position between Tre Burnette (14.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 47fg%) versus AJ Jacobson (13.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 46fg%). But the real match up to see is whoever Craig Smith decides to try and stop Paul Miller.

January 14

Oral Roberts @ IUPUI on ESPN3

I picked IUPUI to win this game before the start of the season. I thought Oral Roberts would be favored because it was Oral Roberts and it is IUPUI, then the Jaguars would surprise the Golden Eagles, but instead Oral Roberts is 1-3 and IUPUI is 3-1.

Oral Roberts really has too many newcomers to face a defensive team like the Jaguars. So far, in 4 Summit League games, the Jaguars are 2nd in the Summit in defensive field goal percentage and 1st in defensive three point field goal percentage. In 3 games against the Jaguars last season, Obi Emegano shot 10-of-33 from the field and 2-of-9 from three. The Golden Eagles have shown that they struggle without the preseason player of the year by losing to South Dakota and Denver, each team’s only conference win so far, so how could they do when he is being contained by Marcellus Barksdale?

Denver @ Western Illinois

Denver won in Macomb last season, but this was when Western Illinois basically did not have a roster anymore due to injuries late in the year. This basketball game could be classically ugly. There will be one team does not get into the Summit League tournament, and this is looking like the two worst teams in the Summit League, so the last tournament spot could be on the line.

In 4 conference games so far, Denver has the worst defensive field goal percentage in the league, and Western Illinois has shown they can shoot well against poor defenses. I don’t want to think about this game anymore.

IPFW @ South Dakota State

Both teams are going to have difficult schedules on the week, and this should be a really fun game. Fort Wayne lost by 29 the last time they played in Brookings, a game that the ‘Dons had 24 turnovers in. Now, the ‘Dons are coming into this game on a 6 game winning streak.

This is a match up for two of the best back courts in the Summit, and there should be close to 20 three point field goals made. A serious question for the Jackrabbits is: is Jake Bittle playing? Without Bittle, I am taking IPFW. The ‘Dons are a slightly better defensive team than the Jackrabbits, which could make a big difference in a game between two of the best teams. In their first three conference games, the Jackrabbits have shot 38% from the field against IUPUI, Western Illinois, and Denver. All of these games have been without Jake Bittle. They cannot shoot 38% from the floor and beat the ‘Dons.

I don’t know how far back you can go and replay games on ESPN3, but if you can, go watch South Dakota State @ IUPUI. South Dakota State, who is supposed to be the best coached team in the Summit, would go 5 minute stretches with 4 players not even attempting to move without the ball on every single play. There is no one on the team that will force their teammates to move without Jake Bittle.

January 16

Denver @ IUPUI on ESPN3

See above about the South Dakota State not moving the ball on IUPUI. Can IUPUI keep Denver from moving the ball around and getting shots off in their Princeton offense? IUPUI swept Denver last season by a combined 4 points. This game will be close, it will be low scoring, and it will be as frustrating as a 14 year old boy dealing with dial up internet when his parents are not home. Hey, it takes a while to do homework when you’re 14. Especially with a poor internet connection.

IPFW @ Omaha

The two highest scoring teams in the Summit will be facing off. I would like to think the Omaha crowd will be larger than normal. Their team is on their longest winning streak since transitioning to division one, Devin Patterson has won the conference player of the week award twice in a row, Tra-Deon Hollins leads the nation in steals, Omaha is coming off one of their best weeks in division one beating North Dakota State and South Dakota on the road, there will be no competing Creighton or NFL game, and the brand of Omaha basketball is getting some recognition right now.

This is the only game of the week for Omaha, while IPFW has to go on the road against South Dakota State and Omaha. South Dakota State is ranked 15th in the Mid-Major Poll, IPFW is 20th, and Omaha is 10 votes away from being 25th.

Patterson against Mo Evans should be a really fun match up to watch in this game. In 4 games against each other; Patterson has averaged 9.3 ppg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg, and shot 52% from the field; Evans has averaged 12.3 ppg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, and shot 42% from the field. In IPFW’s current 6 game winning steak (not counting Purdue North Central), Evans has averaged 17.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 5.8 apg, and shot 49% from the field. In Omaha’s current 6 game winning streak, Patterson has averaged 21.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2 spg, and shot 53% from the field.

Maybe Patterson and Evans cancel each other out, I don’t know. Another interesting match up should be the battle in the post with IPFW’s Joe Reed (10.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 55 fg%) and John Konchar (11.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 58fg%) against Jake White (16 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 57fg%) and Tre’Shawn Thurman (14.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 52fg%). IPFW could start Brent Calhoun at the center spot, but Jon Coffman regularly takes him out pretty quickly and plays small ball with the 6’4″ Konchar at the 4 position. Calhoun has gone from basically just being a tree in the middle of the lane to being effective in the last couple of games for the ‘Dons. Last week against South Dakota and Denver, Calhoun averaged 13 & 5 and shot 11-of-12 from the floor.

These teams actually sound pretty close to each other on paper. Now I feel bad for dogging on the ‘Dons all year. Okay, how about this. At the 2 guard position, Tra-Deon Hollins and Max Landis are almost opposite. Hollins is not a great three point shooter, Landis leads the Summit in three point field goals made (Evans is 2nd in three point field goals made). Landis is not known for being a great defender, Hollins leads the nation in steals. Who is going to get the better of the two here?

This game has a recipe for a lot of drama. Maybe another game Omaha is down by double digits and has to fight back, but the ‘Dons have several offensive weapons so it might be as easy as coming back on the Leathernecks or Coyotes.

South Dakota State @ North Dakota State on ESPN 3

I admit it. I am for the most part only taking the Bison because they are the home team in this rivalry. Last week, I took NDSU against the Mavericks mainly because they were the home team and because almost no Maverick ever had a quality game against the Bison…and I was very happy to be wrong.

Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois

Obi Emegano should hopefully be fully recovered from his concussion at this point. I also don’t think Obi Emegano would let his team fall to his former school. Against Western Illinois last season, Emegano averaged 23.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and shot 52% from the field. Western Illinois’ best player, Garret Covington had 13.5 ppg, 6 rpg, and shot 26% from the field. Emegano has the ability to fully put his team on his back and win a basketball game similar to North Dakota State’s Lawrence Alexander last season.

Western Illinois also recently stopped using Jamie Batish off the bench, who was leading the conference in three point field goal percentage at one point. Mike Miklusak was giving the Leathernecks’ good minutes off the bench, but was injured against Omaha, and hasn’t been seen since. Miklusak missed the last 13 games of 2014-2015 and Western Illinois went 1-12 with him out. WIU’s top three players: Garret Covington, JC Fuller, and Jabari Sandifer are far too consistent to go up against a guy like Emegano.

Summit League RPI Rankings as of January 12th

51. South Dakota State

78. IPFW

107. Oral Roberts

139. Omaha

152. South Dakota

163. IUPUI

170. North Dakota State

234. Denver

252. Western Illinois

Summit League Kenpom Rankings as of January 12th

83. South Dakota State

133. Omaha

155. North Dakota State

160. IPFW

188. IUPUI

189. Western Illinois

193. Oral Roberts

209. South Dakota

243. Denver

My trivial Summit League rankings – Jan 11

January 11, 2016January 11, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball Brandon Conley, David Richland, Denver Pioneers, Devin Patterson, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastadons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jake Bittle, JC Fuller, John Konchar, Marcus Tyus, Max Landis, Mo Evans, North Dakota State Bison, Obi Emegano, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Skyler Flatten, South Dakota Coyotes, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, TraDeon Hollins, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

Again, this might be a step above of being on the range of worthlessness of Joe Lunardi’s bracket on August 5th…

1. Omaha, 4-0

Mehehehehehehe. Never give up on this team. They have 5 wins so far this season where they had to make a push for a comeback, and they almost had a comeback win against Santa Barbara. The Mavs also showed stretches of comeback attempts on Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. They can be down 20 at half time, and they would still feel confident enough to come out in the second half for the win. What’s the make up a team that is built for a comeback in a game? One that can force a load of turnovers, score in bunches, and force their opponent into foul trouble.

One amazing thing is that Omaha is currently 4-0 in the Summit League, and do you even remember that this has been done without Marcus Tyus on the team? The Mavs have a top 3 back court in the Summit with Tra-Deon Hollins and Devin Patterson to go up against the back court of South Dakota State with George Marshall and Deondre Parks, and IPFW with a back court of Mo Evans and Max Landis. Now throw this out there for next season, the Mavs could again have a top back court with Tra-Deon Hollins and Marcus Tyus…

Those Omaha Mavericks are so hot right now.

2. South Dakota State, 2-1

Hey come on, man! They lost to IUPUI! They played that game on the road without the lifeline of their offense, Jake Bittle. Bittle is expected back soon. The team is also playing without back up wing Skyler Flatten right now.

3. IPFW, 3-0

Fully admit to being down on the ‘Dons before the year. Mo Evans is a top 3 point guard in the Summit League, Max Landis is one of the best three point shooters, and John Konchar is the top rebounder as of right now.

The ‘Dons have played a relatively new Oral Roberts, South Dakota at home who lost more than half of their scoring from last season, and a new and young Denver team. Their next three games are at South Dakota State, at Omaha, and North Dakota State in Fort Wayne…so the ‘Dons are going to have a chance to actually prove themselves in the next couple of weeks.

4. IUPUI, 3-1

Their one loss in the Summit League is an away game at Omaha. Beating Western Illinois in Macomb is not an easy task. As one of the better defensive teams in the Summit, they were able to hold Garret Covington and JC Fuller to 11-of-30 from the field.

The Jaguars have two games at home this week against Oral Roberts and Denver. Could they seriously be 5-1 in the Summit League? Wasn’t this basketball team almost garbage when Marcellus Barksdale started his career at IUPUI?

5. North Dakota State, 1-2

The home winning streak is over! The Bison had to go from that to going on the road at Oral Roberts, who was getting Obi Emegano back. The Bison are young, but David Richland does not seem like a guy who is going to let them give up anytime soon. The Bison will get a chance to get things back on track this week with two home games against South Dakota and South Dakota State.

6. Oral Roberts, 1-3

The Golden Eagles dropped their first three games, but two of those games were without the preseason player of the year Obi Emegano. This team is almost completely new, and really have not had many chances to all play together. Seniors Obi Emegano and Brandon Conley did not play in their international trip this summer. Scott Sutton has only finished outside of the top 3 once in conference play since 2003-2004, and that was 2 years ago when the Golden Eagles were in the Southland Conference.

The Golden Eagles have to play at Western Illinois and IUPUI this week…two places not very easy to play.

7. South Dakota, 1-3

Many polls had the Coyotes selected 4th or 5th in preseason polls. The make up of the team does not make much sense though to be qualified to be in the top half of the league. They lost 54% of their scoring, have several newcomers, and a few players sitting out due to transfer. South Dakota also had several injuries over the summer.

8. Denver, 1-3

Another team made up of primarily newcomers. Denver is still a good team at home though, they were able to beat Oral Roberts, even though the Golden Eagles were without Obi Emegano, a win is a win…I guess.

The Pioneers are not known for being a great road team, and they have Western Illinois and IUPUI this week on the road.

9. Western Illinois, 0-3

They beat Wisconsin. We get it, some people think they are a good basketball team. You watch a game of theirs on ESPN3 and the commentators will talk about the Leathernecks as if they are a deep threatening team. They are 0-3, and their shooting appears to get worse and worse.

Summit League Predictions: Jan 6-9

January 6, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League AJ Jacobson, Chris Kading, Daniel Meyer, Denver Pioneers, Devin Patterson, Dexter Werner, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastadons, IUPUI Jaguars, Jake Bittle, Jake White, Jalen Bradley, John Konchar, Marcellus Barksdale, Matt O'Leary, Mike Daum, Nate Engesser, North Dakota State Bison, Obi Emegano, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Paul Miller, Randy Reed, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, The Summit League, TraDeon Hollins, Tre Burnette, Tre'Shawn Thurman, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

So for my preseason rankings, I went through the Summit League schedule and applied wins and losses to each game, and I did it several times looking at different angles and added up all the records to come out with some standings. So what the hell, why not provide some updated predictions as teams actually physically play?

January 6th

South Dakota @ IPFW

The home team lost each game in this series last season. I admit to being a jerk toward IPFW all year, and I have little faith in this team’s post game and overall depth. I also was not too huge on South Dakota going into the season, so this is a bit difficult of a game to pick. The ‘Dons were never really tested in the non-conference, but they were able to pick up a win at home against Oral Roberts…which is something I originally thought would happen given Oral Roberts back and forth schedule to start Summit League play after playing an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule.

South Dakota forces more teams to take more threes than any other team in the league, and the ‘Dons make 10 threes per game and are 2nd in the conference in three point field goal percentage, which is why I am taking IPFW in this game…with a low amount of confidence.

Match up of the game could be: John Konchar (11.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 57 fg%) versus Tre Burnette (15.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 48fg%). Both are undersized at the 4 position, but are both very essential for their teams.

Oral Roberts @ Denver

I really wanted to say Oral Roberts here, and really just on the basis of Oral Roberts Cannot Drop Seven Games in a Row. That thinking is how you lose 500 dollars in roulette. How could it possibly land on red 6 times in a row? Clearly, the smart decision here is to put all my money on black! Green double zero! Where is that hospital that gives you money for a kidney?

The key to this game is if Obi Emegano will be in the game or not. Emegano missed Oral Roberts’ game against South Dakota and the Golden Eagles ended up losing by 10. The team made up of mostly newcomers had 22 turnovers against the Coyotes. You cannot turn the ball over against Denver who is going to make the most out of every possession on you, especially when Denver is traditionally a very good home team.

Assuming Emegano is not playing…the match up of the game could be Jalen Bradley (10.1 ppg, 24 made threes, 38 3pt fg%) versus Nate Engesser (13.1 ppg, 33 made threes, 56 fg%).

January 7th

South Dakota State @ IUPUI

This is another game that is coming down to a key injury. Jake Bittle has missed the last 6 games, and the Jackrabbits have acknowledged that they have a number of little nagging injuries to a number of players. The Jacks have dropped 2 of their last 5, which really is not all that terrible, but all the last 5 games have been close with or without Bittle…the scrappy defense of the Jaguars could really get to the Jackrabbits if they do not have Bittle. Seriously though, if Bittle plays you can change my prediction to South Dakota State winning the game. I discussed how the Summit League is so close that an injury to any team could affect their standings in conference play. Granted, I said teams 2 to 8, but Rob, you were there!

The key match up in this game could be Matt O’Leary (10.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 46 fg%) versus Mike Daum (11.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 52 fg%). I realize I look like a total clown picking this as the match up, but Daum could be the only chance the Jackrabbits have at stopping O’Leary. O’Leary has really been consistent all year and he kept getting wide open looks and getting to the basket against Omaha, but just couldn’t convert as he went 4-of-12 from the field…he could be able to find the bottom of the basket if he gets the same type of looks at home. Yes, I know defensively the Jackrabbits are different team than Omaha, but ride this out with me. O’Leary also leads all players 6’7″ or taller in assists in the league, so there is that as well.

Omaha @ North Dakota State

See, I am not a completely biased loon! The Mavericks have yet to beat North Dakota State since transitioning to D1. They are going to have to overcome the fact that almost no player on their current active roster has really had a good game against the Bison. In 4 career games, Devin Patterson has averaged 7.8 points and shot 22% from the field against the Bison. Ouch. Tre’Shawn Thurman did have 18 and 8 in his first game against the Bison last season, but only had 2 points later in the season when they moved him to the bench to bring in Jake White.

The Mavs need Thurman, Jake White (who combined for 2-of-13 in two games against the Bison last season), Daniel Meyer, and Randy Reed to play big against the defensively sound post of Chris Kading, Dexter Werner, and AJ Jacobson.

The fun match up will be Thurman against Jacobson after Thurman had his 18 and 8 in their first meeting and Jacobson had 17 and 8 in their first career game against each other. The key match up will be if Tra-Deon Hollins who leads the nation in steals can keep the ball away from Paul Miller who is scoring 16.6 points per game and shooting 43% from the field and from behind the arch.

January 9th

IUPUI @ Western Illinois

I fully believe IUPUI is the better team of the two, but IUPUI has not won in Macomb since 2011…and the Leathernecks are a completely different team at home. This game is on ESPN3, but it could be as difficult to watch as someone trying to decide between rebooting Weekend at Bernie’s or trying to come out with a good plot line for Weekend at Bernie’s 3. Watching Marcellus Barksdale defend Garret Covington could be worth the watch, but I have come to terms that Covington for as good of a scorer that Covington is, is incredibly boring to watch.

Omaha @ South Dakota

Alright good, I am back to being a homer. Both games between these two teams were exciting last year, even if Omaha did play with a hobbled Devin Patterson in Vermillion. The Mavs will have to hit some threes against South Dakota and/or get to the free throw line as much as possible. Omaha MIGHT have JT Gibson back by this one for some three point shooting.

IPFW @ Denver

The Dons were absolutely unphased by the Pioneers last season beating them by 16 points in both contests. Does this not seem like the least interesting match up of all Summit League teams? This is the Rachel Weisz film of the Summit League. Seriously, find a serious actor or actress with a lineup of less interesting films. It gets shaky after “The Mummy.”

North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts should have Obi Emegano back, which I think would add plenty enough emotion to give them confidence after losing so many games recently. I would like to say the Bison have the best defensive guards in the Summit League to handle Emegano, but he had 34 points on 12-of-17 shooting against the Bison last season in Tulsa. The Mabee Center is not an easy place for teams to come in and pick up wins, unless you are South Dakota…then it is a little easy somehow.

It was stressful, but the Mavericks are 2-0

January 4, 2016January 4, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball Devin Patterson, Garret Covington, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, Jalen Morgan, JC Fuller, Mike Miklusak, Omaha Mavericks, The Summit League, Tim Smallwood, TraDeon Hollins, Tre'Shawn Thurman, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks

A 2 point win after being down with 16 points with 9 minutes to go and a 5 point win in an always close game is a pretty stressful way to pick up your first two conference wins, but the Mavs are 2-0 and that is all that matters (to me). It was as stressful as being a Kansas City Royals fan and watching them be down 0-1 going into the 7th inning. Both IUPUI and Western Illinois are going to be tough to beat on the road later in the season, and Omaha plays IUPUI after a fun filled weekend of North Dakota State and South Dakota State. Also, the Mavs are currently on their longest winning streak over division one teams…so eat that up.

Last year, the worst thing about the Mavs was their perimeter defense. Wing players consistently had great games against their perimeter defense. Now, after 2 games, the Mavs held Garret Covington of Western Illinois to 4-13 from the floor and Darell Combs of IUPUI to 8 points on 3-11 shooting. IUPUI was just 1 of 15 from three point range, but they really are not that great of a three point shooting team to begin with…they are 8th in the Summit League and Omaha is 9th. JC Fuller of Western Illinois had 10 points for Western Illinois in the first 8 minutes of the game, and the Mavs were able to contain him to just 7 points for the rest of the game.

The three point shooting for the Mavs is still a concern, but Tim Smallwood was able to hit some big time shots against Western Illinois to help fuel the comeback. Tre’Shawn Thurman and Tra-Deon Hollins were both in foul trouble for a good portion of the Western Illinois win. Hollins was really able to help spark the comeback in the final 9 minutes of the game with his stealing and passing abilities, he might not be the best player for the Mavericks, but he could be the most important player for the Mavericks this season. If you’re a complete dork, you should remember the old Marvel trading cards that had ratings on the back for each characters abilities of strength and shooting lasers out their eyes abilities. Hollins would have the highest rating for passing and stealing. You can make a highlight film of guards thinking they can pass around or above Hollins, and he just jumps up in the air and takes the ball.

My wife and I could see that Jalen Morgan of Western Illinois was a complete head case for the Leathernecks, I look forward to the hockey style fight he gets in at some point with his own teammate. I watched JC Fuller get away twice in the game with putting his elbow on the chest of a Maverick and pushing them off of him. I am also 90% sure that I saw Jabari Sandifer kiss his own bicep after making a three point shot, which is something only cool dudes do. I did feel bad for Mike Miklusak hurting himself toward the end of the first half, he was in the shoot around at half time, but he has had a career filled with injuries. He did miss the Leathernecks’ game against South Dakota State, I could look up to see if there is any specific injury, but I hate typing “Western Illinois” into the Google Machine.

The win over IUPUI has to shake your brain that Devin Patterson and Tre’Shawn Thurman were not selected any preseason Summit League teams. The Jaguars are a gritty team, they had more steals than the Mavericks. Yeah, that is weird, isn’t it? Evan Hall is going to be a great player in the Summit, and you have to like the future of the Jaguars. Maybe even a top 3 team in the conference next season.

A random note to mention: Tra-Deon Hollins has 64 steals on the season, which is already the most steals by any Maverick in a season since transition. Granted, it has not been that long of a history since transition, but we’re only half way through the season so far…

The Mavs are off to as good of a start that you could ask for in the Summit League at 2-0, but a two game road trip at North Dakota State and South Dakota is going to be difficult. The Mavericks have been a better three point shooting team on the road for some reason, so hopefully that can help because they are going to need it against those two teams that force you to shoot from the outside.

The New Year’s Day Leatherneck-Maverick Bowl

January 1, 2016January 1, 2016 acroth86 College Basketball Brandon Gilbeck, Devin Patterson, Garret Covington, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, Jake White, JC Fuller, Omaha Mavericks, The Summit League, TraDeon Hollins, TreShaun Thurman, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks, Wisconsin Badgers

Back from a trip to see the in-laws in Portland just in time to see some Summit League basketball.

Random Note: I was wearing an Omaha Mavericks shirt out in Portland and ran into a guy with a Nebraska Cornhuskers who started a rant at me that the Mavericks “suck.” I am still unsure what to make of the whole situation. I tried to talk to my father-in-law about it, but he is a North Dakota fan, so that was worthless.

Anyway, it is 2016, and the Mavericks are still a full fledged member of division one. The Western Illinois Leathernecks will be the first opponent for the Mavericks to try and build their record to get in good standing for their first trip to the Summit League tournament. There is a good chance (or a bad chance depending how you look at it) that the Baxter Arena crowd may not be a large crowd in the conference opener. College bowl season is going on today, students are back home (even though most UNO students hail from Omaha), and many people are still struggling to find dignity at 1pm on New Year’s Day. The Mavericks started each season in the Summit League on the road, but this season they get a great chance to start out with a decent record with 2 games at home against Western Illinois and IUPUI.

What is there to know about the Western Illinois Leathernecks?

Record: 7-4
They beat Wisconsin at the beginning of the year, you may have heard of it. You probably have not heard many positive things for the Badgers since that either, but hey let the Leathernecks brag about it to cover up their loss to Chicago State. Oh wait, this sounds familiar.
They only played out out of the state of Illinois in 3 games in their non-conference schedule. This is their second game in the state of Nebraska after losing to Creighton 97-67 in November. Does this make you want the Mavericks to beat the Leathernecks even harder to hurt Creighton’s RPI? I am not even sure if that would hurt Creighton’s RPI, but it wouldn’t help it.
Leathernecks beat Eastern Illinois twice, Omaha beat EIU once.
Garret Covington is pretty good at this basketball thing. At 6’5″ and 180lbs, Covington is currently 3rd in the Summit in scoring with 17.4 points per game. I don’t want to talk smack about Covington, but he does not really rank that well in any other statistical category…He is 10th in the Summit in free throw percentage.
JC Fuller appears to be the X-factor for the Leathernecks. In wins, he is averaging 17.7 points per game and shooting 52% from the field. In losses, Fuller is averaging 9.5 points per game and shooting 29% from the field. Do the Mavs have a really good defensive guard to help slow Fuller down? Yes…
Jabari Sandifer gave the Mavericks problems last season. He is 2nd in the conference in assists behind Tra-Deon Hollins, and Sandifer is 2nd in the conference in Assists to Turnover ratio, so the match up between Sandifer and Fuller against Hollins and Devin Patterson appears to be a big factor in this game.
The Leathernecks were really excited for 6’11” freshman Brandon Gilbeck before the start of the season. The frosh is averaging 3.3 points and 4.6 rebounds per game and has only made one free throw all season, so I am not sure if they are still super jacked about him or not. The front line for the Leathernecks is deep with 4 guys that are 6’8″ or taller to play in the post, but none of them are half has good as Jake White or Tre’Shawn Thurman.

Since only one conference game has been played so far, and the non-conference schedule had completely different levels of competition for each Summit League team, I feel it is dumb to discuss team statistics at this point…and Western Illinois only played 11 games in their non-conference schedule when everyone else had 13 or 14 games…and 3 of their 11 games were against non-D1 teams…and they played Eastern Illinois twice…my teeth hurt right now. But hey, the Summit League is currently 10th in RPI as a conference!

The Summit League RPI rankings as of December 31st…

37. South Dakota State

77. Oral Roberts

91. IPFW

120. South Dakota

153. North Dakota State

172. Omaha

212. Western Illinois

227. IUPUI

241. Denver

But hey, if you like Kenpom more…

57. South Dakota State

144. Omaha

160. North Dakota State

176. IPFW

181. Oral Roberts

193. Western Illinois

201. South Dakota

219. Denver

Notes: Mavs rebounded really well against the Roos

November 18, 2015 acroth86 College Basketball, The Summit League Baxter Arena, Bill Brasky, Devin Patterson, Garret Covington, Jabari Sandifer, Jake White, JC Fuller, Kareem Richardson, LaVell Boyd, Martez Harrison, Mikaela Shaw, Omaha Mavericks, Shock Top, Tim Smallwood, TraDeon Hollins, Tre'Shawn Thurman, UMKC Kangaroos, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks, Zach Jackson

It was one of the most stressful games I have seen in a while, but the Mavericks got the win, so I cannot complain. There were some teaching moments, and there was also some great aggressive plays from the Mavericks. I was kind of upset in the first game that the score board did not tell you how many points and fouls the players had. I am super glad this got fixed. The battery on my phone was getting pissed at me for having to look it up every couple minutes.

Basketball was fun last night. — The worst picture ever, but basketball was fun last night.

The Shock Top stand is not open on weeknight games I guess. I just wanted Twisted Pretzel.
Kareem Richardson just always looks like he is ready to leave as quickly as possible. He’s done a great job at UMKC though. I doubt he is in Kansas City too much longer.
The first time I saw Shayok Shayok, he is was 6’6″, and now he is listed at 6’9″. Why can’t I grow like that?
My favorite thing about the MavX ap is that it tells you the menus of all the concession stands in the Baxter Arena. My wife is an extremely healthy eater, so usually when we go to sporting events we spend a half hour walking around the entire arena finding her something healthy to eat. The ap cuts down on this time, and that has pretty much made my year.
Tra-Deon Hollins court awareness is just unreal. I feel like he is in training to be The Flash. In the Flash, they just shoot arrows and other objects at him to see if he can catch everything. Hollins has a way of making it appear as if the opposing team is just throwing the ball at him to see if he can catch it.
Jake White appeared that he had something to prove against UMKC. Not that it ever looks like he’s ready to put on an open mic stand up comedy routine, but he looked like he knew he had a task to stay out on the court and to not let UMKC get any offensive boards. He was fighting out there. The Mavs let up a few key offensive boards, but it is going to happen no matter what you do sometimes. The Mavs only gave up 9 offensive rebounds this game, and Jake White had a big role in keeping the ‘Roos off the glass.
LaVell Boyd and Martez Harrison might one of the three best back courts the Mavs play this year.
Another guy who looks as serious as the Terminator trying to hunt down Sarah Connor is Tim Smallwood. He’s the Timinator. He’s constantly ready put up a three, and he chases after his misses, and he’s hustled his ass off the last two games after not getting much time against Santa Barbara. That is exactly what you want out of a senior guard. His near coast to coast drive was something we did not see much out of him last season.
I know that UMKC made quite a bit a threes in the game, the Kangaroos did find some wide open looks from the perimeter, but the Mavs did contest a lot of those shots. Just being that the Mavs are forcing so many threes, you can tell that teams are maybe a bit nervous about having to get through Devin Patterson and Tra-Deon Hollins…The Devil’s Gate. The ‘Roos had some threes from big guys, there are not many bigs in The Summit that can hit multiple threes a game.
I felt like I was watching the pre-LeBron James Miami Heat play the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals in the second half. The Heat that year just put the ball in Dwayne Wade’s hands and kept having him drive to the basket because of the all the fouls. Why do I feel like this? The ‘Roos had 37 fouls in the game. The Mavericks were 36-48 from the free throw line. When the Mavs came down the court down 83-80, I was thinking it would almost be dumb to shoot a three. It seemed like the Mavericks were stuck at 5 of 18 on threes for the past 15 minutes, and I was looking at the fouls and just saying that: I would bet money here that UMKC will make a dumb foul here.
We need to keep getting more excited for Zach Jackson. Out of the three freshmen on this year’s team, he had the least known about him coming into the year. He makes a few odd decisions, but for the most part he plays great, and what college freshman doesn’t make a couple questionable decision in his first three college basketball games. There are seniors out there making poor decisions on the court. Near the end of the game, there was an overthrown pass to him that went out of bounce and some guy near me was pissed that he didn’t try and save the ball. Really, had he thrown the ball back it could have gone to an opposing player and UMKC would have been off to the races at the end of the game and anything could have happened. Jackson is a high IQ player, the Mavs need that for a guy that is filling in. I made this point earlier, the Mavs are asking less out of their newcomers compared to other Summit League teams. Others are asking newcomers to be stars right away, the Mavs are asking the newcomers to be role players…this has to be something that will pay off.
Growing increasingly nervous about this team’s three point shooting as we head to The Summit League, but the Mavericks advantage is going to be Patterson and Hollins breaking down the defense and getting into the lane. The Summit does not have a bunch of post players, White and Thurman could be 2 of the top 5 post players in the Summit League.
This game needed a little cowbell toward the end of the game.
Tre’Shawn Thurman literally wiped the floor tonight. He was playing like he was in a video game, and his player rating kept rising because of his great play. He’s added some moves, he was feeling it, and was incredibly focused. He just looked more relaxed at the free throw line tonight, which I thought showed with 7 of 9 from the line. Thurman has the highest ceiling of any Maverick that we have seen in a while. When people walk into the Baxter Arena, they immediately take notice of the muscle he put on.
Kelley Wollak did a great job as the MC in timeouts. I feel bad with her being on crutches out there though. I was a little bummed that Mikaela Shaw could not be in Omaha and Grand Forks at the same time. It feels like it could have been a Bill Brasky level of story that Mav fans could have screamed at a bar in the future. ONE TIME MIKAELA SHAW RAN FROM GRAND FORKS TO OMAHA SO SHE COULD GIVE OUT A FREE OIL CHANGE AND THEN SHE RAN BACK TO GRAND FORKS TO DROP 19 ON NORTH DAKOTA….TO MIKAELA SHAW!!!!
Every win is needed, but this was a much needed win for the Mavericks. UMKC is an improved team, and going on a three game road swing after going 1-2 would have been…I think my brain just tried to escape my head.
Who else sat there entire time asking: Why is UMKC in the WAC?

Elsewhere in The Summit

Western Illinois beat Illinois-Chicago 84-57. Jabari Sandifer had 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. JC Fuller had 19 points and 9 rebounds. Garret Covington had 17 points and 3 rebounds. The Leathernecks are making us all look like idiots.

My precarious Summit League preseason rankings

October 29, 2015November 11, 2015 acroth86 College Basketball AJ Jacobson, Bobby Word, Brandon Gilbeck, Brent Calhoun, Chris Kading, Cody Larson, Craig Smith, Dave Richman, DeAngelo Brewster, Denell Henderson, Deng Geu, Denver Pioneers, Dexter Werner, Garret Covington, IPFW Mastodons, Isaiah McCray, IUPUI Jaguars, Jabari Sandifer, JC Fuller, Joe Edwards, Joe Scott, John Konchar, Jordan Pickett, Korey Billburry, Lawrence Alexander, Marcellus Barksdale, North Dakota State Bison, Obi Emegano, Omaha Mavericks, Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, Scott Nagy, Scott Sutton, South Dakota Coyotes, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Steve Forbes, The Summit League, Trey Norris, Tyler Flack, UNO Mavericks, Western Illinois Leathernecks, Wyoming Cowboys

This intro is copied from yesterday’s post…

Sometimes I find preseason predictions pointless, other than starting a conversation about the upcoming season or letting people know what could potentially be the biggest games of the year, there is not really much of a point to it.

I mainly find them useless because of the methodology in ranking teams. Many seem to just copy and past the standings of last year, and then make a small edit if a team had a high amount of turnover from last season’s roster. But I came up with a plan to do this for the Summit League. I was reading some preseason predictions for the Big 10 football season which was done by a bunch of ESPN writers. Some made good points but they all had to come up with a record for each team, and the math did not always make sense. One clown had Ohio State going 12-0 with a 8-0 Big Ten record and Michigan State going 11-1, and also with a 8-0 Big Ten record. Seriously, how drunk and lazy and/or bad at math was that guy? Or some guys would have two teams going 8-0 in conference, a couple going 0-8, and everyone else going 5-3. The math didn’t add up and they were telling you that these teams would win these amount of games because they are Skeletor and they said so.

So I came up with a plan. I would go through the Summit League conference schedule and assign wins and losses over the course of a number of weeks. At first it was just: South Dakota State is a better team than Denver, so win goes to the Jackrabbits. Then later, I would look at the difficulty of each team’s conference schedule. Obviously, everyone plays each other twice, but there are some things that stick out; like how Denver is the only team with the highway to the danger zone in playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State in back to back games. Or how South Dakota and Oral Roberts are the only two Summit League teams without three straight games on the road in conference play. Then things like Omaha playing on the road against someone on a Thursday, as road games on Thursdays appear to be difficult for most teams. Actually road games are pretty difficult for anyone. Then I would go through the schedule again and consider some teams’ strengths versus their opponents weaknesses. Like how teams better be good at three point shooting against South Dakota as they forced teams to take the most threes with their defense…and other things.

But I assigned wins and losses to each game, and did it several times considering different factors. Then I plain and simple would add up each team’s wins and losses to see who had the most after going through it about 15 times. Is it perfect? No. Is it better than just saying South Dakota State will go 15-1 in conference because of Jesus? Probably.

Really, after going through all of this; I really do not see much separation between many of the teams. South Dakota State seems like a clear cut favorite. Then North Dakota State seems like they are 2nd best, but they really should not be as comfortable as one would think. Then Oral Roberts-Omaha-IPFW-IUPUI-South Dakota appear to be in a fight for spots 3 to 7 with Denver and Western Illinois sitting at 8 and 9; but Denver is a difficult place to play; and Western Illinois, while not great last year, they do return basically everything.

So much of the 3 to 9 in the Summit League appears to come down to:

Who can stay healthy?
Who can win on the road?
Who can pick up a win against South Dakota State and North Dakota State?

South Dakota State

Range of wins: 13 to 15

This team’s back court is extremely good, and the Jackrabbits could score 30 points a game on just three pointers alone. The obvious question mark for the team is who is going to rebound and play center? Scott Nagy has admitted to not knowing what to do there. I think one of the most underrated part of Cody Larson’s game was his passing ability. A big man that can pass is so huge for your team. He could draw in the double team and kick it out to the open man, or pass it to a driving player, and it was just a huge weapon for the Jackrabbits.

Their three game road stretch of at North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and South Dakota is an extremely tough road stretch for them, but they will be fine in the end. They start their conference schedule at home with Denver and Western Illinois… must be rough.

North Dakota State

Range of wins: 10 to 13

At first I just thought to myself: oh they have everyone back, and they have enough players to make up for the loss of Lawrence Alexander, so they should just own this conference. Then I thought: replacing Lawrence Alexander might be one of the most difficult things to ever overcome. So much of their offense was based on what Alexander could do, and he only had two games last season where he did not score in double figures. No player in Bison history won more games at North Dakota State than Lawrence Alexander. Teams generally have a significant drop off when they lose one of their best players in program history, but somehow I still really like them to finish 2nd in the conference.

Dave Richman has this team completely confident though and they are buying into his system, and their team motto is: just get better and better every day…which they do a good job of doing. One thing that is scary to think about in addition to losing one of the program’s best players in history: is the fact that they went 12-4 in the Summit League last season, but they did not exactly blow anyone out. Only three of their wins were by more than 10 points, and one of those was a revenge game against South Dakota where Alexander had 31 points on 11-14 shooting. So who is for sure going to score the ball down the stretch when they find themselves in close games this season? I am not saying that they cannot find anyone, but it is something to definitely consider.

The Bison probably have the best post game cores in the league with AJ Jacobson, Dexter Werner, and Chris Kading; but Kading is coming off some summer surgeries. They can go small, they can go big with those three; the three of them each bring something different to their front court to give them several different options. The Bison also appear to be extremely excited about freshman Deng Geu, but they have also stated that they may redshirt him.

They lucked out with the greatest 3 game road stretch ever. They are at IPFW on a Thursday and then at Western Illinois on a Saturday, they then have a 8 day break before playing on the road at IUPUI.

Omaha

Range of wins: 7 to 11

I already talked about the Mavs

I realize I look like a total homer placing them this high.

Oral Roberts

Range of wins: 7 to 10

At first, I thought no way on this team. They have lost too many players in the last few seasons, the newcomers do not look all that great, and they might even be one of the least deep teams in the Summit League, which is almost an accomplishment. Then I remembered that is the exact same thing that I thought about North Dakota State last season. Obi Emegano is going to have to have to be the same type of player that Lawrence Alexander was for North Dakota State last season, which is something that he appears to be capable of.

No one seems to be taking the losses of Korey Billbury, Denell Henderson, and Bobby Word very seriously though. Billbury was potentially a 1st Summit Team player, and he is being replaced by unproven guys. The whole team is completely changed. Their two top returning guys (Emegano and Brandon Conley) had shoulder surgery over the summer as well, and did not play in their summer trip. There is a lot to point at and say that this why they wont be a top 3 team in the conference, but for some reason, I always consider them a top 4 team in this conference. I just think Scott Sutton is that good of a coach and that Obi Emegano is that good of a player. Sutton has finished in the top 3 in the Summit League in every season that they were in the Summit League since 2003-2004.

I would not be shocked if this team finished 2nd in the conference, and I would not be totally surprised if they finished 8th in the conference. There is just no telling what is going to happen. Jalen Bradley appears to be in the perfect situation playing alongside Emegano. Freshman Javan White, while he looks like you could snap his arm like a twig, seems like he can really help the Golden Eagles in the low post in a league with not much depth in post players this season.

The start of the conference season does not look like a big help to them. Three teams they can beat, but on the road against IPFW, then back home for South Dakota, then back on the road against Denver, then back home for North Dakota State. They make up for it late in the season when they have three straight home games against IUPUI, Western Illinois, and Denver.

IUPUI

Range of wins: 6 to 10

This team was picked last in the preseason rankings before the start of last season. Everyone thought it was one of the worst rosters they had ever seen, but they were able to pick up 6 wins with that roster. What were they bad at last year? 3 point shooting…fine add Darell Combs, a transfer that made 32 threes in his sophomore year at Eastern Michigan. Rebounding…fine add two 6’8″ transfers from Loyola. Too many turnovers…fine, everyone that turned the ball over the most left the team, except for Marcellus Barksdale who handled the ball the most for the team. Guard dominated league? Fine, put Marcellus Barksdale on Obi Emegano or Garret Covington on any given night. Hell, they don’t even see him as their best perimeter defender.

The roster has improved, the coaches have a year of being together under their belt, and the program is improving more and more every day. They did hold an open scrimmage this week, but had 3 newcomers sitting out with some nagging injuries. One of the players that sat out was Jordan Pickett who transferred from Loyola where he had a history of injury problems, and it sounds like the Jaguars were expecting him to be one of the team’s primary ball handlers. That could become an issue.

They might be one the most boring team to ever watch, but you cannot ignore their improvement and upside. They also had Marcellus Barksdale playing four different positions last season in just about every single game, and he will not have to take on as much of a load this season with the additions to this team.

South Dakota

Range of wins: 5 to 8

I admit that I really like Craig Smith, and I think the loss of him as an assistant coach was a big factor as to why the Huskers had a drop off last season. Some of these preseason rankings appear to just rating the Coyotes around 5th primarily on the fact that Craig Smith is their coach…and I am totally cool with that. This team lost the most scoring in the Summit League, their team has been plagued with injuries in the preseason, oh and the staff currently has no idea who is going to score the ball for them. Spots 3-9 in the Summit League could be incredibly close, injuries could ruin any team, as well as pretty much starting 3 weeks later than everyone else as far as full team practices go.

Another thing that is kind of weird is that Trey Norris is probably their starting point guard, who started is sophomore year, but Smith thought it was a much better decision to send him to the bench in his junior year. So does Smith even believe in his point guard? Also Tyler Flack is returning from a back injury. You back isn’t important in basketball, is it? I was on the Craig Smith can coach this team to 3rd or 4th bandwagon, but there seems to be something new every week that continues to point to the fact that this is going to be a long year for the Coyotes.

This team though is going to force teams to take 3s on them. They forced their opponents to take the most amount of threes last season, and held them to the lowest three point field goal percentage in the Summit League…so you kind of need to be able to hit the three against them.

IPFW

Range of wins: 5 to 7

I have seen this team ranked any from 4th to 6th in preseason rankings. The Summit League ranked them as the 4th best team. I don’t see it. They return the 2nd least amount of scoring the Summit League, and they return the least amount of division one starts on their team. The losses of Steve Forbes, Joe Edwards, and Isaiah McCray seem too big. It seems like they are asking their newcomers to do too much and are placing too high of expectations on them. They think Brent Calhoun is going to have a breakout year because he lost a bunch of weight and is really healthy, but let’s wait a few games to see how much of an asset that can be. They are putting a lot of emphasis on redshirt freshman John Konchar to be an undersized 4 man and play small ball this season.

I am just not sold on this team yet. This team was the worst free throw shooting team in the Summit League, but I think they really are going to improve there, which could help them with some of the rule changes, but teams should be adjusted to the rule changes come conference play. I do think this team does have probably the best order of games in the conference as well. Oral Roberts at home on a Wednesday, South Dakota at home on a Wednesday, North Dakota State at home on a Thursday, South Dakota State at home on a Thursday; and on top of that they never have three games in a row in which they should not be completely unfavored. Have to give credit to the fact that they have one of the top back courts in the league with Mo Evans and Max Landis, but who knows how valuable that can be in a back court dominated league…says the guy that bases part of Omaha’s potential success on the Mavericks having one of the top back courts in the league.

The team did underachieve last season, but Joe Reed admitted that last year’s team was just completely focused on the Summit League tournament, and did not look at their season on a game-by-game basis. He said they are more focused on taking it one game at a time this season. I will be surprised if this team ends up in the top half of the Summit League, but they could do it with lucky breaks with injuries to other teams and whatnot. It is a young team, and a team of mostly newcomers. I will say if they can keep this roster together, add their two transfers sitting out this season, and a 6’10” freshman that recently committed, that the Mastodons will be a very good team against the Summit League in 2016-2017.

Denver

Range of wins: 2 to 7

There are many question marks for this team. I am really curious how a 30 second shot clock affects a team in the Princeton offense, probably not a ton, but it has to affect it in some way shape or form. Denver does have 3 seniors to run that offense, but they do have 13 underclassmen on their team that have to learn that offense and be prepared to hit shots with the shot clock winding down. Denver can pick up a few wins at home with their elevation advantage, style of play, and Joe Scott’s coaching abilities, but do you really feel fully confident in 9 freshman and 4 sophomores on the road in conference play? They also have 3 seasons in a row of declining in wins, so it is not like there is a bunch of momentum heading into this season. Not to mention, they were picked 2nd in preseason polls last season. I have seen them ranked as low as 9th in the Summit and as high as 6th.

This team should have a pretty decent non-conference season though with no power teams on their schedule, and Wyoming is the hardest team on their non-conference schedule, who lost everyone. The start to the conference schedule is not very kind to the Pioneers. They start off with with two weekend games on the road against North Dakota State and South Dakota State, and then they have Oral Roberts at home…so they are starting off with the three teams that are known for being the toughest in the Summit League. After the Golden Eagles, they have IPFW at home who swept them last season by 16 point margins in each game; and then they are back on the road for games against Western Illinois and IUPUI. It is possible that they start the conference season at 0-6. Talk about momentum!

Western Illinois

Range of wins: 2 to 5

No one is taking Western Illinois very seriously, and it completely makes sense. They ended 2014-2015 on a nine game losing streak and they were 0-8 in Summit League road games. Western Illinois is not an easy place for other teams to pick up wins though. They were 3-5 at home, and they lost both of their home games to North Dakota State and South Dakota State by 2.

It also seems like everyone on this team was injured at some point, and they return the most scoring in the Summit League at 89% of their offense. They are also very excited about their two freshmen 6’11” Brandon Gilbeck and 5’11” DeAngelo Brewster. Gilbeck and Brewster do not need to carry the load for this team with Garret Covington, JC Fuller, and Jabari Sandifer still on this team, but they need to just be role players; so it is not like they have any pressure on them. It is completely easy to write off the Leathernecks and pencil them in as the worst team in the Summit League, but they could seriously surprise a couple teams this year and pick up a shocking win or two. The toughest part of the season for them is going to be when they 6 out of 8 games on the road in the conference.

But the serious questions were all no for the Leathernecks last year. Can they stay healthy? No. Can they win on the road? No. Can they beat South Dakota State or North Dakota State? No.

	Kent Erickson Ericks… on Can we act like we’ve be…
	CuseJeff on Party of 16: table or Boo…
	Doug Jones on Some post game Western Illinoi…
	K Erickson on This game against the Leathern…
	acroth86 on My trivial Summit League ranki…

Omaha Mavericks Blog

I did not have anyone to talk Omaha Mav sports with, so I decided to talk to the internet.

Garret Covington