Cody Larson

My precarious Summit League preseason rankings

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This intro is copied from yesterday’s post…

Sometimes I find preseason predictions pointless, other than starting a conversation about the upcoming season or letting people know what could potentially be the biggest games of the year, there is not really much of a point to it.

I mainly find them useless because of the methodology in ranking teams.  Many seem to just copy and past the standings of last year, and then make a small edit if a team had a high amount of turnover from last season’s roster.  But I came up with a plan to do this for the Summit League.  I was reading some preseason predictions for the Big 10 football season which was done by a bunch of ESPN writers.  Some made good points but they all had to come up with a record for each team, and the math did not always make sense.  One clown had Ohio State going 12-0 with a 8-0 Big Ten record and Michigan State going 11-1, and also with a 8-0 Big Ten record.  Seriously, how drunk and lazy and/or bad at math was that guy?  Or some guys would have two teams going 8-0 in conference, a couple going 0-8, and everyone else going 5-3.  The math didn’t add up and they were telling you that these teams would win these amount of games because they are Skeletor and they said so.

So I came up with a plan.  I would go through the Summit League conference schedule and assign wins and losses over the course of a number of weeks.  At first it was just: South Dakota State is a better team than Denver, so win goes to the Jackrabbits.  Then later, I would look at the difficulty of each team’s conference schedule.  Obviously, everyone plays each other twice, but there are some things that stick out; like how Denver is the only team with the highway to the danger zone in playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State in back to back games.  Or how South Dakota and Oral Roberts are the only two Summit League teams without three straight games on the road in conference play.  Then things like Omaha playing on the road against someone on a Thursday, as road games on Thursdays appear to be difficult for most teams.  Actually road games are pretty difficult for anyone.  Then I would go through the schedule again and consider some teams’ strengths versus their opponents weaknesses.  Like how teams better be good at three point shooting against South Dakota as they forced teams to take the most threes with their defense…and other things.

But I assigned wins and losses to each game, and did it several times considering different factors.  Then I plain and simple would add up each team’s wins and losses to see who had the most after going through it about 15 times.  Is it perfect?  No.  Is it better than just saying South Dakota State will go 15-1 in conference because of Jesus?  Probably.

Really, after going through all of this; I really do not see much separation between many of the teams.  South Dakota State seems like a clear cut favorite.  Then North Dakota State seems like they are 2nd best, but they really should not be as comfortable as one would think.  Then Oral Roberts-Omaha-IPFW-IUPUI-South Dakota appear to be in a fight for spots 3 to 7 with Denver and Western Illinois sitting at 8 and 9; but Denver is a difficult place to play; and Western Illinois, while not great last year, they do return basically everything.

So much of the 3 to 9 in the Summit League appears to come down to:

  • Who can stay healthy?
  • Who can win on the road?
  • Who can pick up a win against South Dakota State and North Dakota State?

South Dakota State

Range of wins: 13 to 15

This team’s back court is extremely good, and the Jackrabbits could score 30 points a game on just three pointers alone.  The obvious question mark for the team is who is going to rebound and play center?  Scott Nagy has admitted to not knowing what to do there.  I think one of the most underrated part of Cody Larson’s game was his passing ability.  A big man that can pass is so huge for your team.  He could draw in the double team and kick it out to the open man, or pass it to a driving player, and it was just a huge weapon for the Jackrabbits.

Their three game road stretch of at North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and South Dakota is an extremely tough road stretch for them, but they will be fine in the end.  They start their conference schedule at home with Denver and Western Illinois… must be rough.

North Dakota State

Range of wins:  10 to 13

At first I just thought to myself: oh they have everyone back, and they have enough players to make up for the loss of Lawrence Alexander, so they should just own this conference.  Then I thought: replacing Lawrence Alexander might be one of the most difficult things to ever overcome.  So much of their offense was based on what Alexander could do, and he only had two games last season where he did not score in double figures.  No player in Bison history won more games at North Dakota State than Lawrence Alexander.  Teams generally have a significant drop off when they lose one of their best players in program history, but somehow I still really like them to finish 2nd in the conference.

Dave Richman has this team completely confident though and they are buying into his system, and their team motto is: just get better and better every day…which they do a good job of doing.  One thing that is scary to think about in addition to losing one of the program’s best players in history: is the fact that they went 12-4 in the Summit League last season, but they did not exactly blow anyone out.  Only three of their wins were by more than 10 points, and one of those was a revenge game against South Dakota where Alexander had 31 points on 11-14 shooting.  So who is for sure going to score the ball down the stretch when they find themselves in close games this season?  I am not saying that they cannot find anyone, but it is something to definitely consider.

The Bison probably have the best post game cores in the league with AJ Jacobson, Dexter Werner, and Chris Kading; but Kading is coming off some summer surgeries.   They can go small, they can go big with those three; the three of them each bring something different to their front court to give them several different options.  The Bison also appear to be extremely excited about freshman Deng Geu, but they have also stated that they may redshirt him.

They lucked out with the greatest 3 game road stretch ever.  They are at IPFW on a Thursday and then at Western Illinois on a Saturday, they then have a 8 day break before playing on the road at IUPUI.

Omaha

Range of wins: 7 to 11

I already talked about the Mavs

I realize I look like a total homer placing them this high.

Oral Roberts

Range of wins: 7 to 10

At first, I thought no way on this team.  They have lost too many players in the last few seasons, the newcomers do not look all that great, and they might even be one of the least deep teams in the Summit League, which is almost an accomplishment.  Then I remembered that is the exact same thing that I thought about North Dakota State last season.  Obi Emegano is going to have to have to be the same type of player that Lawrence Alexander was for North Dakota State last season, which is something that he appears to be capable of.

No one seems to be taking the losses of Korey Billbury, Denell Henderson, and Bobby Word very seriously though.  Billbury was potentially a 1st Summit Team player, and he is being replaced by unproven guys.  The whole team is completely changed.  Their two top returning guys (Emegano and Brandon Conley) had shoulder surgery over the summer as well, and did not play in their summer trip.  There is a lot to point at and say that this why they wont be a top 3 team in the conference, but for some reason, I always consider them a top 4 team in this conference.  I just think Scott Sutton is that good of a coach and that Obi Emegano is that good of a player.  Sutton has finished in the top 3 in the Summit League in every season that they were in the Summit League since 2003-2004.

I would not be shocked if this team finished 2nd in the conference, and I would not be totally surprised if they finished 8th in the conference.  There is just no telling what is going to happen.  Jalen Bradley appears to be in the perfect situation playing alongside Emegano.  Freshman Javan White, while he looks like you could snap his arm like a twig, seems like he can really help the Golden Eagles in the low post in a league with not much depth in post players this season.

The start of the conference season does not look like a big help to them.  Three teams they can beat, but on the road against IPFW, then back home for South Dakota, then back on the road against Denver, then back home for North Dakota State.  They make up for it late in the season when they have three straight home games against IUPUI, Western Illinois, and Denver.

IUPUI

Range of wins:  6 to 10

This team was picked last in the preseason rankings before the start of last season.  Everyone thought it was one of the worst rosters they had ever seen, but they were able to pick up 6 wins with that roster.  What were they bad at last year?  3 point shooting…fine add Darell Combs, a transfer that made 32 threes in his sophomore year at Eastern Michigan.  Rebounding…fine add two 6’8″ transfers from Loyola.  Too many turnovers…fine, everyone that turned the ball over the most left the team, except for Marcellus Barksdale who handled the ball the most for the team.  Guard dominated league?  Fine, put Marcellus Barksdale on Obi Emegano or Garret Covington on any given night.  Hell, they don’t even see him as their best perimeter defender.

The roster has improved, the coaches have a year of being together under their belt, and the program is improving more and more every day.  They did hold an open scrimmage this week, but had 3 newcomers sitting out with some nagging injuries.  One of the players that sat out was Jordan Pickett who transferred from Loyola where he had a history of injury problems, and it sounds like the Jaguars were expecting him to be one of the team’s primary ball handlers.  That could become an issue.

They might be one the most boring team to ever watch, but you cannot ignore their improvement and upside.  They also had Marcellus Barksdale playing four different positions last season in just about every single game, and he will not have to take on as much of a load this season with the additions to this team.

South Dakota

Range of wins:  5 to 8

I admit that I really like Craig Smith, and I think the loss of him as an assistant coach was a big factor as to why the Huskers had a drop off last season.  Some of these preseason rankings appear to just rating the Coyotes around 5th primarily on the fact that Craig Smith is their coach…and I am totally cool with that.  This team lost the most scoring in the Summit League, their team has been plagued with injuries in the preseason, oh and the staff currently has no idea who is going to score the ball for them.  Spots 3-9 in the Summit League could be incredibly close, injuries could ruin any team, as well as pretty much starting 3 weeks later than everyone else as far as full team practices go.

Another thing that is kind of weird is that Trey Norris is probably their starting point guard, who started is sophomore year, but Smith thought it was a much better decision to send him to the bench in his junior year.  So does Smith even believe in his point guard?  Also Tyler Flack is returning from a back injury.  You back isn’t important in basketball, is it?  I was on the Craig Smith can coach this team to 3rd or 4th bandwagon, but there seems to be something new every week that continues to point to the fact that this is going to be a long year for the Coyotes.

This team though is going to force teams to take 3s on them.  They forced their opponents to take the most amount of threes last season, and held them to the lowest three point field goal percentage in the Summit League…so you kind of need to be able to hit the three against them.

IPFW

Range of wins:  5 to 7

I have seen this team ranked any from 4th to 6th in preseason rankings.  The Summit League ranked them as the 4th best team.  I don’t see it.  They return the 2nd least amount of scoring the Summit League, and they return the least amount of division one starts on their team.  The losses of Steve Forbes, Joe Edwards, and Isaiah McCray seem too big.  It seems like they are asking their newcomers to do too much and are placing too high of expectations on them.  They think Brent Calhoun is going to have a breakout year because he lost a bunch of weight and is really healthy, but let’s wait a few games to see how much of an asset that can be.  They are putting a lot of emphasis on redshirt freshman John Konchar to be an undersized 4 man and play small ball this season.

I am just not sold on this team yet.  This team was the worst free throw shooting team in the Summit League, but I think they really are going to improve there, which could help them with some of the rule changes, but teams should be adjusted to the rule changes come conference play.  I do think this team does have probably the best order of games in the conference as well.  Oral Roberts at home on a Wednesday, South Dakota at home on a Wednesday, North Dakota State at home on a Thursday, South Dakota State at home on a Thursday; and on top of that they never have three games in a row in which they should not be completely unfavored.  Have to give credit to the fact that they have one of the top back courts in the league with Mo Evans and Max Landis, but who knows how valuable that can be in a back court dominated league…says the guy that bases part of Omaha’s potential success on the Mavericks having one of the top back courts in the league.

The team did underachieve last season, but Joe Reed admitted that last year’s team was just completely focused on the Summit League tournament, and did not look at their season on a game-by-game basis.  He said they are more focused on taking it one game at a time this season.  I will be surprised if this team ends up in the top half of the Summit League, but they could do it with lucky breaks with injuries to other teams and whatnot.  It is a young team, and a team of mostly newcomers.  I will say if they can keep this roster together, add their two transfers sitting out this season, and a 6’10” freshman that recently committed, that the Mastodons will be a very good team against the Summit League in 2016-2017.

Denver

Range of wins:  2 to 7

There are many question marks for this team.  I am really curious how a 30 second shot clock affects a team in the Princeton offense, probably not a ton, but it has to affect it in some way shape or form.  Denver does have 3 seniors to run that offense, but they do have 13 underclassmen on their team that have to learn that offense and be prepared to hit shots with the shot clock winding down.  Denver can pick up a few wins at home with their elevation advantage,  style of play, and Joe Scott’s coaching abilities, but do you really feel fully confident in 9 freshman and 4 sophomores on the road in conference play?  They also have 3 seasons in a row of declining in wins, so it is not like there is a bunch of momentum heading into this season.  Not to mention, they were picked 2nd in preseason polls last season.  I have seen them ranked as low as 9th in the Summit and as high as 6th.

This team should have a pretty decent non-conference season though with no power teams on their schedule, and Wyoming is the hardest team on their non-conference schedule, who lost everyone.   The start to the conference schedule is not very kind to the Pioneers.  They start off with with two weekend games on the road against North Dakota State and South Dakota State, and then they have Oral Roberts at home…so they are starting off with the three teams that are known for being the toughest in the Summit League.  After the Golden Eagles, they have IPFW at home who swept them last season by 16 point margins in each game; and then they are back on the road for games against Western Illinois and IUPUI.  It is possible that they start the conference season at 0-6.  Talk about momentum!

Western Illinois

Range of wins: 2 to 5

No one is taking Western Illinois very seriously, and it completely makes sense.  They ended 2014-2015 on a nine game losing streak and they were 0-8 in Summit League road games.  Western Illinois is not an easy place for other teams to pick up wins though.  They were 3-5 at home, and they lost both of their home games to North Dakota State and South Dakota State by 2.

It also seems like everyone on this team was injured at some point, and they return the most scoring in the Summit League at 89% of their offense.  They are also very excited about their two freshmen 6’11” Brandon Gilbeck and 5’11” DeAngelo Brewster.  Gilbeck and Brewster do not need to carry the load for this team with Garret Covington, JC Fuller, and Jabari Sandifer still on this team, but they need to just be role players; so it is not like they have any pressure on them.  It is completely easy to write off the Leathernecks and pencil them in as the worst team in the Summit League, but they could seriously surprise a couple teams this year and pick up a shocking win or two.  The toughest part of the season for them is going to be when they 6 out of 8 games on the road in the conference.

But the serious questions were all no for the Leathernecks last year.  Can they stay healthy?  No.  Can they win on the road?  No.  Can they beat South Dakota State or North Dakota State?  No.

Who has the best Big 3 in the Summit League?

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Basketball, meh, mainly the NBA has entered into an era of looking at teams by asking the question: Who has the best Big 3?  Having a Big 3 certainly is key, but really I think it’s just as important to follow up with who has better role players to back up Big 3?  Could the 2008 Boston Celtics have won an NBA championship without their young starters Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo, and older bench players of PJ Brown, Sam Cassell, and James Posey?  But while we are on the subject, that I brought up, let’s take a look at who could have the best Big 3 in the Summit League in the 2015-2016 season.

 

SDSU:

Jake Bittle, George Marshall, Deondre Parks

There is little doubt that the Jackrabbits will have the best guard trio in the league.  Each averaged double figures in scoring, and all three can defend the perimeter.  Each averaged double figure scoring, and Bittle has the highest field goal percentage of any returning player to the Summit league at 53.4 %.  The Jackrabbits also have 3 of the top 5 returning players in 3 point field goals made, Marshall made 64 threes in 2014-2015 and he did not even play the entire season.  The big question mark is; with Cody Larson graduating, who is going to rebound and defend in the post for them?

The Jackrabbits are returning 74% of their scoring from 2014-2015.
The Jackrabbits are returning 74% of their scoring from 2014-2015.

Role Players:

Reed Tellinghuisen, 6-6 SO:  If you look at the Jackrabbits fan forum, someone posted pictures of Tellinghuisen lifting weights, which is not weird at all.  He does appear as if he has added some weight onto his frame, which is great as he will be used more at the 4 position in his second year as a Jackrabbit.  The Summit League has Tellinghuisen, AJ Jacobson, and Tre’Shawn Thurman all in the same class at the forward position.  How excited are you for 2017-2018?

Connor Devine/Ian Theisen:  These two split time and basically taking turns of who was backing up All Conference player Cody Larson.  These two combined for for almost 5 points and 4 rebounds per game.  With a young front court, these two will be counted on more in the 2015-2016 season to step up.

Skyler Flatten, 6-6 SO: Flatten was actually getting a decent amount of minutes, but then something happened.  George Marshall happened.

Keaton Moffitt, 6-5 SR:  Keaton Moffitt also happened.  The transfer, from Division 2 Sioux Falls, made quite the impact on his team with his leadership and hustle, routinely making big plays when it was needed most.

 

Omaha:

Devin Patterson, Tre’Shawn Thurman, Marcus Tyus, (Jake White)

The Mavericks could have a Big 4 if Jake White is healthy, with as many injuries as he had in his junior season, it is going to be like getting an entirely new player in the line up.  It seemed as if the entire team faced injuries issues last season, so if the Mavs can stay healthy, they can be a very dangerous team in the Summit League with their senior back court of Patterson and Tyus to go along with their rising sophomore star Tre’Shawn Thurman.

Random stat:  The Mavericks have the most experienced roster with the average eligible player being 2/3 of the way through their sophomore season, but they have the smallest roster with an average height of 6’4″.  If Zach Jackson, Ben Kositizke, and Zach Pirog all redshirt, the roster gets even smaller, but more experienced.  It is still up for debate if this is one of the meaningless things I have ever posted here.

The Mavericks are looking to make a big jump with a new arena and new era.
The Mavericks are looking to make a big jump with a new arena and new era.

Role Players:

Tra-Deon Hollins, 6-2 JR:  Averaged 17 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 5.3 apg his freshman season of junior college, he appears to be a little bit of everything, and can really help the Mavericks improve their perimeter defense.

Daniel Meyer, 6-9 SO:  Only averaged four and a half minutes a game in 2014-2015, but he is likely to see an increased role with the graduation of Mike Rostampour and the departure of fellow redshirt freshman Rylan Murry.  Meyer appeared to play with a lot of activity on the team’s trip to Italy.

Randy Reed, 6-6 SR:  I’d like to see Reed’s shot chart, I cannot think of many jump shots Reed made, or took.  He really can slash and get to the basket though.  When Marcus Tyus missed the last 6 games of the season, Reed really did a decent job of bringing energy off the bench.  There were many instances in the Mavericks’ home game against Oral Roberts that he made a play to keep Omaha in the game.  I would think with not a ton of post players around the Summit League that Reed will be used as a backup 4.

 

NDSU:

Kory Brown, Carlin Dupree, AJ Jacobson

After losing the Summit League player of the year, Lawrence Alexander, the Bison will look to replace that offense in their back court.  AJ Jacobson said in a Q&A that the Bison are all about a team effort, and know that there is a next one up to take Alexander’s place.  It will probably actually be two up with Kory Brown and Carlin Dupree to take the load on offense over.  Seriously, this team is starting to become the HYDRA of the Summit League.

While this team is still relatively young, they seem to have completely bought into Dave Richman’s schemes.  A Big 3 probably does not really matter to the Bison, they appear to be ready for anything.  Looking at their roster, they probably have the most complete roster in the Summit League.  It is also probably worth nothing; that while the Bison are a young team, their roster has the most division one starts on the active roster for 2015-2016 with 197 starts.  Kory Brown is after all a 4 year starter…assuming he is going to start this season.

The Bison will continue to work as a team after the loss of Lawrence Alexander.
The Bison will continue to work as a team after the loss of Lawrence Alexander.

Role Players:

Chris Kading, 6-8 SR:  Kading averaged 5.3 points per game and 3.9 rebounds per game in 2014-2015.  He is not much of a threat on offense, but he does rarely make mistakes.  Actually the Bison rarely make mistakes as a team.  Kading led the Summit League in blocks per game.

Paul Miller, 6’4 SO:  Miller averaged 6.7 points per game and 3.8 rebounds per game, while making 37 threes in his freshman campaign, which is all impressive considering he was sharing the back court with the likes of Lawrence Alexander, Kory Brown, and Carlin Dupree.  He also had 10 games in which he scored in double figures.

Dexter Werner, 6-6 JR:  Had a massive jump from his sophomore to his junior season going from 2.8 points per game to 8.4 points per game.  He also only averaged under 20 minutes per game in 2014-2015.  With Werner coming off the bench, he and Jacobson allow the Bison to be extremely tough at the 4 position for 40 minutes.  It also allows Jacobson to move over to the 3 and play more outside, which is not a bad thing for them.  Werner was second on the team in blocks per game, and is tied with Omaha’s Tre’Shawn Thurman as the 2nd leading shot blocker returning to the league.

 

IUPUI:

Marcellus Barksdale, Darrell Combs, Nick Osborne

A bunch of new faces for IUPUI, which is not a terrible thing.  Marcellus Barksdale is the team’s returning leading scorer, but he can easily fall to the team’s 2nd or 3rd best scorer on the team.  Eastern Michigan transfer Darrell Combs is ready to go and has shown he can get buckets.  I cannot wait for the “combing the court” puns from terrible ESPN3 commentators.  Loyola-Illinois transfer Nick Osborne is expected to make a big impact on this team as well, and will more than likely serve as the team’s primary post presence, as he and other Loyola-Illinois transfer Matt O’Leary are the only upperclassmen post players on the team.  Osborne was known for getting into lots of foul trouble when he was a post player for Loyola.  The Jaguars are going to look entirely different this season.

The Jaguars exceeded expectations in 2014-2015, what can they do with a group of new and improved players?
The Jaguars exceeded expectations in 2014-2015, what can they do with a group of new and improved players?

Role Players:

Seriously, how many 6’5″ guards do the Jaguars need?

Aaron Brennan, 6-6 SO:  Averaged 6.4 points per game in 2014-15 and started in 24 games, but could be moved to the bench with the additions of Osborne and O’Leary.  Not a bad thing for your team to have a guy on your bench with 24 career starts as a freshman.

DJ McCall, 6-5 SO:  Averaged a shade under 5 points per game and had 15 starts on the year.  Could also see an increase of minutes with the graduations of Elijah Ray and Khufu Najee.

The further I get into this, I realize that the entire team is a group of role players.

 

 

South Dakota

Tre Burnette, Tyler Flack, Casey Kasperbauer

I admit that throwing Flack’s name into the mix is a risk.  Due to an injury, he has yet to play under Craig Smith, but Craig is probably going to like using a 6’7″ guy who shot 45% on threes in his sophomore season.  Combine that with Casey Kasperbauer ranking 95th in the nation last season in threes made, and South Dakota will rely on the three ball a lot this season, again.  The trio can really make up for the losses of Tyler Larson and Brandon Bos from last season.

Tre Burnette is the Summit League’s leading returning rebounder from 2014-2015, and Kasperbauer has the most three point field goals made of any returning player to the League, he also has the 3rd highest three point field goal percentage of any returning player.

South Dakota lost 56% of their scoring, that is the most in the Summit League.
South Dakota lost 56% of their scoring, that is the most in the Summit League.

Role Players:

Trey Norris, 6-0 Sr:  Came off the bench in his junior year after being a starter in his sophomore season, but will compete for the starting point guard position with incoming JuCo player, Shy McClelland.  Norris had a drop off in production from his sophomore season under coach Smith, but he can still be a capable part of the offense for the Coyotes.

Eric Robertson, 6-8 Sr:  He made the game winning shot over the Mavericks in Omaha, right?  I just remember the beard, and being incredibly angry.  I do not completely blame him for the Mavericks’ loss, it is just the final image I have in my mind of that game.  Perhaps an increased role in his senior season with the departure of James Hunter, but Craig Smith did a decent job recruiting two 6’9″ freshman (Tyler Hagedorn and Dan Jech) that he may be intrigued to get to the top of the rotation immediately.

 

IPFW

Mo Evans, Max Landis, Joe Reed

I continuously forget about the existence of Max Landis, but he is on the team, I swear it, and he was 4th on the team in scoring last season.  The ‘Dons lost a lot of their post game, and they do not appear to have much replacing what they lost, so the team could rely a lot on Mo Evans to be a star.  Landis will be there to shoot the three, and Joe Reed will need to be counted on even more to be a stretch 4 than he has before.  Seriously, this is the first time we have seen the ‘Dons without a serious threat of a stretch 4.  Yep, first time in 5 years?  Reed did shoot 36% from behind the line last year, but did not take many as he only made ten on the year.  The team will be counting on two junior college transfers to fill the void of what they lost from last season, and will need them to adjust and contribute quickly.

Side note:  The ‘Dons will have transfers from Louisiana Tech, Purdue, and Bradley all eligible to play in 2016-2017.

The 'Dons have the fewest number of Division 1 starts by players on their roster.
The ‘Dons have the fewest number of Division 1 starts by players on their roster.

Role Players:

Andrew Poulter, 6-11 JR: Played in seven games his redshirt freshman year at Arkansas-Little Rock before transferring to Western Texas for his sophomore season, where he averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds per game.

DeAngelo Stewart, 6-6 JR:  Played his freshman season at Alabama State before transferring to Northwest Tech in Kansas for his sophomore season.  Averaged 16 ppg, 6 rpg, and shot 47% from the field in his sophomore season.  A few people have already tabbed Stewart as the Newcomer of the Year in the Summit League.

 

 

Western Illinois:

Garret Covington, JC Fuller, and Jabari Sandifer

It is hard to determine who the Leathernecks’ third best player is behind Covington and Fuller.  Sandifer was the third leading scorer on the team with 7.4 points per game, and he also led the Summit League in assists with 4.3 per game.  He even had a great opening weekend in the Summit with 22 points and 4 assists against IPFW and 20 points and 6 assists against Omaha, but then he was basically never heard from again only scoring in double figures one more time through the season.

Western Illinois actually has a lot of experience on their team, but how much faith can you put in a team that has gone 1-27 on the road in the last two seasons.  The last time they won a road game was January 30th, 2014 against IPFW.

The Leathernecks return 89% of their scoring, can they see improvement if they stay healthy?
The Leathernecks return 89% of their scoring, can they see improvement if they stay healthy?

Role Players:

Mike Miklusak, 6-6 JR:  Played in 15 games because of a season ending injury  He had 21 points and 7 rebounds against Omaha.  I am putting my head down right now.

Jamie Batish, 6-4, SR:  A bit of an inconsistent guard, but gives the Leathernecks an option on offense after averaging 6.4 points per game in his first season with the team.  He had 15 points in a win against Omaha.  Seriously, I am going to punch myself in the face right now.

Tate Stensgaard, 6-8 SR:  Played in 20 games before facing a season ending injury.  Has shot over 56% on his career as a Leatherneck.

 

Denver:

Marcus Byrd, Nate Engesser, Bryant Rucker

Honestly it is pretty difficult to analyze a team’s Big 3 when they run the Princeton offense.  Excuse me, I have to take a break, I just had a random memory of Barry Collier being a terrible basketball coach.

Okay, I am back… With their offense you need guys that take high percentage shots.  These three seniors-to-be had a combined shooting percentage of nearly 50% from the field and 42% on threes.  Marcus Byrd has the highest three point field goal percentage for any player returning to the Summit League.  The Summit League has been more difficult for Joe Scott and the Pioneers than it was for them against the Sun Belt and WAC, which hopefully is not all that surprising.  The Pioneers have gotten worse each of the last three seasons going from 22 wins to 16 wins to 12 wins, can they go for 10 this year?  With their high shooting percentage, the Pioneers can always be in a game, but with the Summit League having so many good shooters, teams have been able to take over games down the stretch.  It is pretty difficult to beat at home as they are 32-13 at home over the last 3 years, and last year they lost 7 games at home by a combined total of 39 points…one of those games was a 16 point loss to IPFW as an outlier.

Denver does not care about a Big 3.
Denver does not care about a Big 3.

Role Players:

Daniel Amigo, 6-10 SO:  5.7 ppg, 46 FG%

Jake Pemberton, 6-3 SO: Likely to see an increased role with the graduation of Brett Olson and Cam Griffin.

 

Oral Roberts:

Obi Emegano, Brandon Conley, Scott Sutton

With Korey Billbury and Bobby Word departing from the team, I really cannot come up with who is going to make up a Big 3 for the Golden Eagles.  On paper, it looks kind of rough for Oral Roberts and coach Sutton, but Sutton is probably one of the top coaches in the Summit League and entering his 17th season as the head coach of the Golden Eagles, so they cannot really be counted out, especially if they arguably the best player in the conference.  You want to talk about new faces?  Oral Roberts is going to be like trying to figure out who is joining the cast of another Expendables film.

Obi Emegano is a popular choice of Preseason Player of the Year.
Obi Emegano is a popular choice of Preseason Player of the Year.

Role Players:

Seriously have no idea what will be happening with this team.  Perhaps this is what happens to a team when they change conferences so often…naw what I mean Denver?  Brandon Conley is probably the only for sure thing on the team, everyone else seems to be the mystery man with his trigger on the finger.  The Golden Eagles can probably get above .500 in the conference with Emegano and Sutton though.

 

 

 

A look back at the players The Summit League has lost from 2014-2015

acroth86 College Basketball , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Every year we as sports fans analyze teams in college sports in consideration to what players teams lost versus what they have coming back, and what they have potentially coming in.  It is the easiest and the laziest way to determine who we think will be the best and worst teams.  So before all of that starts, lets take a look at the players the Summit League has lost so far from the 2014-2015 season.

North Dakota State – The Bison won the Summit League championship for the second straight year, and they are only losing one player to graduation.  So the lazy man will tell you that with only losing one player, they will probably go on for a three peat.  No, no, no, we are talking about a potential eight peat here.  That is a Bill Swerski’s Superfans reference.  The problem with the They Won the Championship and Are Only Losing One Player argument is that the only player that they are losing was the best player in the entire league.

Graduated:

Lawrence Alexander – there is no doubt that it will be difficult for the Bison to make up for the loss of Alexander, the 2014-2015 Conference Player of the Year.  Losing 19 points per game is no easy thing to lose, but we know players cannot stick around forever  Senior to be, Kory Brown showed some moments of that he could be the guy to make up that loss, but the Bison won the Summit League the last two years behind a complete team effort, so they will have to band together again to continue their dominant run in the Summit League.  They did pick up a commitment from Malik Clements, a 6’3″ junior college guard that will be a sophomore, who did at one time have an offer from the Mavericks.  They also have still no player on their roster that is smaller than 6’3″.

Transferred:

Jake Showalter – After only playing 13 games and averaging 1.4 points per game, it is no surprise to see the guard from Wisconsin transfer out after his freshman year.  With the addition of above mentioned Clements, Showalter was still probably going to be at the bottom of the rotation for the guards of the Bison.

South Dakota State – A team that only loses 2 players to graduation, but one player was an All Conference player and arguably the best post player in the league.

Graduated:

Zach Horstman – the senior was getting a lot of playing time before getting sidelined with an injury and being forced to miss two games against Omaha and IUPUI, this opened up more room for some of the younger guys to show off what they could do.  Before missing those two games, Horstman had 5 (out of 17) games of scoring in double figures and did not have any afterwards.  With lack of depth in the front court, the Jackrabbits had Horstman playing most of his time at the 4, but at 6’6″ and 205 pounds he was probably more in line to be playing the 3.  The Jackrabbits will have Reed Tellinghuisen and Skyler Flatten to still pick up most of the time for Horstman, and both are very capable players.  Not only that, but the Jackrabbits will have Nebraska native, Michael Daum to make up for the lost time at the 4 position, who redshirted in the 2014-2015 season.

Cody Larson – the perennial Lord of Jerkfaces and former First Team All Summit League player will definitely be tough for the Jackrabbits to make up.  Sophomore to be Ian Theisen showed some strong moments of what could come in the future for the post game of the Jackrabbits, and the Jackrabbits have some pretty big expectations from Daum, but are they 9 double-doubles good?  Are they 14 and 7 good?  Yes, I just puked a little.  I will be the first to admit it, and I have already mentioned variations of this before though, the Summit League was not stacked with really good post players this season.  There was Larson, Steve Forbes, and Mike Rostampour as the top 3, and then a big drop off after that.  Where was I going with this?  Not entirely sure, I just started saying that and was hoping it would go somewhere.  Maybe, just that the loss of Larson is not as big as it seems if no one else in the Summit League has a great post game.

Transferred:

Anders Broman – I remember coming out of high school, the Jackrabbits were incredibly excited about Broman.  Every school sounds excited about every player coming out of high school though.  It is not like Scott Nagy comes out to announce the players he signed and talks about his expectations of a few of them never developing and transferring out.  Either way, Broman is on his way to Winthorp.  Not sure his playing time was going to really increase his junior year playing behind Wisconsin transfer George Marshall, Jake Bittle, and Deondre Parks.  Seriously, does that guard trio not scare you, especially with Tellinghuisen and Flatten also capable of playing the guard position?

Oral Roberts – The 2015-2016 does not look like anything the Golden Eagles are looking forward to on paper, but Scott Sutton has seen this and done this before.

Graduated:

Denell Henderson – the loss of Henderson will mean Oral Roberts will again not have much of a post game, but they have never been extremely reliable in their post game.  Henderson averaged 3.5 points per game his junior year, before moving up to 8.8 points per game his senior year.  Albert Owens averaged 3.8 points per game this last season as a freshman, so is it pretty safe to say Owens will just kind of take over that role.  Yes, I based that off of very little.  No offense to Henderson, but it is not a bunch to make up.  Oral Roberts also has two freshman coming in that are taller than 6’7″, so there is really not a ton of fallout here.

Adrion Webber – I think Oral Roberts made the most appearances on ESPN3 out of all the Summit League teams last season.  I watched most of their games, and I cannot remember Webber’s name ever being mentioned.  He did score 9 on the Mavericks in their game in Tulsa, so it is possible I was too engulfed in anger to take in anyone’s name from the Golden Eagles during that game.  Former Creighton guy, Darian Harris did see an increase in minutes toward the end of the year, I assume Harris is a guy that is capable of making up for the loss of Webber.

Transferred:  

Korey Billbury – probably the biggest loss in the Summit League in terms of a guy transferring out.  It sounded as if Billbury had issues off the court that forced him to leave, which is why it is not really a huge shocker that he transferred out.  With Obi Emegano, I really thought these two had the chance to be the greatest guard combination in the Summit League for 2015-2016, but that will never be played out.  He shot 13-19 against the Mavericks in Tulsa, that is why I cannot remember Webber’s name.  On the court, he also averaged 14.4 points per game and led the Golden Eagles in rebounds with 7.4 per game.  Billbury’s game will be a lot for the Golden Eagles to make up, but they did beat North Dakota State, Denver, IUPUI, and a CBI tournament game without him last season.

Dederick Lee – not a shocking loss for the Golden Eagles here.  Former Maverick, Jalen Bradley will more than make up the loss for Lee.

Jabarr Singleton – another guy Bradley can make up for.  Singleton did score 10 points in the Golden Eagles win over the Mavericks in Tulsa.  Seriously, what the hell was going on in that game?

Bobby Word – an incredibly significant loss for the Golden Eagles.  Known mostly for being a shooter, Word averaged 8.4 points per game as a sophomore.  He also averaged 13.5 points per game after Billbury stopped playing, I cannot see Golden Eagle fans being super excited about losing both of those guys on the court.  The Oral Roberts, are going to be a pretty young team this upcoming season.

IPFW – The Mastadons had high expectations at the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, and it was partially because of their senior trio of Joe Edwards, Steve Forbes, and Isaiah McCray, but with first year head coach Jon Coffman never really materializing the roster, and ultimately just seeming somewhat bored on the bench, the Dons fell below expectations.  If their expectations were so high because of the players they lost, what are they going to be like next season without those guys?  The Dons did sign three junior college players in an attempt to land some guys to be immediate impacts, so they could be the Magic 8 ball of the league in 2015-2016.

Graduated:

Joe Edwards – losing 12 points per game can be made up.  The Dons picked up a 6’5″ junior college player, who at one time played at Alabama State, DeAngelo Stewart who averaged nearly 17 points per game and shot 47% from the field his sophomore year.  He averaged 2 points per game as a true freshman at Alabama State, yes Alabama State is a real college.

Steve Forbes – some could argue that Forbes was the best post player in the Summit League, and really it was just because of his roundness and overall size.  There was not much seen out of him from a leadership standpoint, just a Hey Lets Get Out There and Try Maybe and We Can Still Get Some Nuggets Afterwards Anyway mentality.  I would have much rather had Mike Rostampour or Cody Larson as my team’s main post player last year, each guy had that leadership quality you are looking for.  The Dons may have fell off the map because of how little Forbes seemed to give a shit.  I watched their loss at South Dakota in March, and kept thinking that Forbes should have been dominating the Coyotes post.  South Dakota’s James Hunter, who averaged 6 points a game, had 16 points in the game off of 8 of 12 shooting, because he actually cared about the game.

Kevin Harden – Kevin Harden was never the same after missing 21 games in 2012-2013 with an injury.  His minutes kept dropping, his scoring kept dropping, he just fell out at IPFW.  It is something that you hate watching happen, but it does happen.

Isaiah McCray – McCray was always capable of doing a lot of things at IPFW, he just never did a lot of things at IPFW.  As one of the more inconsistent players in the Summit League, McCray may not be dearly missed by the Dons.  They still have junior to be, Mo Evans (10.2 ppg), and senior to be Max Landis, who was on the Summit League All Newcomer team, to make McCray a forgettable player.  The more I type, the more easy it is to understand why IPFW did not do as well as expected in 2014-2015.

Transferred:

Gage Davis – He did not play in 2014-2015.

Herbert Graham – everyone likes a guy named Herb, well except for the IPFW coaching staff apparently.  In 3 years, he only played a total of 195 minutes at IPFW.

Jure Gunjina – he played in 243 minutes in his one year at IPFW before transferring to Division 2 Georgia Southwestern.  Seriously, what has IPFW been doing the last couple of years.

South Dakota – I still feel like head coach Craig Smith did the most with the least in the Summit League in 2014-2015.  The losses of Brandon Bos and Tyler Larson will be tough tough on the Coyotes, but Smith continues to bring guys in.  He will have Iowa transfer Trey Dickerson and Air Force transfer Matt Mooney sitting out in 2015-2016, unless they get some form of waiver, but Smith is quickly turning South Dakota into the Transfer Here school in the Summit League, which instate foe South Dakota State cannot be too excited about.

Graduated:

Brandon Bos – It can be difficult to make up for someone who was a great shooter, but great shooters are all around the Midwest.  And again, Craig Smith, he is no idiot.  If you watched the game mentioned earlier with Steve Forbes full out not caring against South Dakota, you would have noticed Brandon Bos playing the game of his life scoring 29 points on 7 of 12 shooting, he also had 7 rebounds and 5 assists.

James Hunter – Hunter came into Vermillion from Washington State and did just enough to give South Dakota some form of a post game.  He may have only averaged 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds, but it is not like he was worthless.  Without him, the Coyotes could of had Tyler Larson playing center.  Smith will have Nebraska native Tyler Hagedorn and Minnesota guy Dan Jech to come in to fill in the post in 2015-2016, along with a core of upperclassmen guards, the Coyotes may actually have some expectations coming their way at the beginning of the year.  Thanks a lot, Craig Smith.

Tyler Larson – at 6’3″ Larson averaged nearly 8 rebounds a game, and averaged 14.4 points per game.  He could do a little bit of everything, which is what helped him land on First Team All Summit League team.  Not to brag, but I think I called that one.

Transferred

Adam Thoseby – The Coyotes lost one of the greatest beards that the Summit League has ever seen.  Thoseby’s minutes were dropped significantly from his sophomore to his junior year, so it was no surprise to see him go.

Denver – Only graduating two players can be a good thing, but only graduating arguably your two best players can prove to be a headache.  Losing your two best players and not doing nearly as well as anyone would have thought you would have done, that can lead to a mystery team next season.  They will essentially be playing Clue on the court in 2015-2016.  Now who scored the shot from the corner last game that started with a pump fake, and can they do it again?

Graduated:

Cam Griffin – Griffin had some off the court issues, which caused his playing time to fluctuate throughout the season.  Fans do not miss these guys.

Brett Olson –  averaging 14 points per game at a school like Denver, who runs the Princeton offense, is like losing a guy that averages 20 points per game at a different school.  One of the best shooters and most disciplined players in the entire league will not be an easy thing to make up.  Denver has never been a team for the stars though, they have been successful off of team efforts.  Head Coach, Joe Scott, may actually prefer not to have a main scorer on his team.  Either way, losing a 2nd team All Summit League player is not anything that anyone should ever be in love with.

Transferred:

Dorian Butler – the 6’6″ California native never played for the Pioneers.

Cameron Delaney – Delaney started to pick up some minutes toward the end of the 2014-2015 season, but it was not enough to convince the Texas native to stay.  Delaney and Love could have really been a decent combo for the Pioneers in 2015-2016, but we will never know.  Delaney is off to Sam Houston State, which is where all great players go.

Jalen Love – surprised to see him go, I really thought he would have been a guy that would have been used to make up for the loss of Griffin and Olson.  But he is off to (Hello,) Newman.

IUPUI – There have been a ton of transfers in and transferred out with the Jaguars since Jason Gardner has taken over at IUPUI, which is not entirely abnormal.  I am not really sure they will miss anyone that left, mainly because I doubt the staff has had enough time to learn everyone’s names.  They have lost a lot of players, but they have been one of the worst teams in the Summit League, so it is not like the guys they bring in can be any worse.  With 5 guys transferring out, you may want to assume that they were leaving because they see the incoming players as guys that are going to be better than them.  6 wins though in 2014-2015 is probably 6 more wins than most people assumed the Jaguars were going to get.

Graduated:

Player name, 2014-2015 stats

Khufu Najee – 6’4″, 190lbs…7.4 ppg, 3,1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 44% FG, 28-35 FTs, 6-22 3pters

DavRon Williams – 6’7″, 225lbs…8.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.7 blg, 57% FG, 58% FT

Transferred:

PJ Boute – 5’9″ , 160lbs, Junior…5.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.0 spg, 30% FG, 32% 3ptFG, 78% FT

Josh James – 6’9″, 225 lbs, Sophomore…3.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.5 bpg, 48% FG, 69% FT

Jalen McCallum – 5’9″, 160lbs, Sophomore…2.3 ppg, 0.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 56% FG, 2-3 FT

Elijah Ray – 6’6″, 232lbs, Sophomore…4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.3 spg, 47% FG, 70% FT

Justus Stanback – 6’8″ 220lbs, Sophomore…2.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.2 bpg, 52% FG

Omaha – Another a team only graduating two players, but also losing their two best players.  On top of losing their two best players, the Mavs top returning players; Devin Patterson, Marcus Tyus, and Jake White each had a significant number of injuries during the 2014-2015 season.  If Jake White can get healthy, he and Tre’Shawn Thurman can hopefully make up for what the Mavs are losing in Rostampour on the court.  Neither of them really seem to have the motor and intangibles that Rostampour brought to the Mavs however, not sure anyone does really.  It is still possible that the Mavs could lose some players to transfer as they have yet to announce any players leaving.  The Mavs will also have to learn to deal with more buzz in 2015-2016 as it is their first year being fully eligible for division one, and they will have a brand new arena.  Oh, and we cannot forget the Taco Cannon prestige.

Graduated:  – I am not going to talk a lot about them at this point, because I kind of already have…

CJ Carter – 2nd Team All Summit

Mike Rostampour – Honorable Mention All Summit

Western Illinois – Although the Leathernecks only went 3-13 against the Summit League in 2014-2015, they have to be pretty optimistic about 2015-2016, when they return their two top scorers, and one of those players was a 2nd Team All Conference player.  Really Western Illinois does not lose much of anything, and a number of players on the team showed some flashes of being quality players.  Really, I feel like the Leathernecks spent the entire 2014-2015 campaign as a way of waiting for the summer of 2015.

Graduated:

Mohammed Conde – led the Leathernecks in rebounding at 6 per game.  The Leathernecks are bringing in two 6’10 freshman, so it is possible that they will not even notice the loss, or at least will fill in the loss pretty quickly.  The Leathernecks really played from the outside-in, rather than the inside-out this season, so the post game was never really anything they relied on.

Remy Roberts-Burnett – I am not sure if he had some injuries or off the court issues, but his time decreased significantly this season and he missed 9 games this last season.  I also do not want to be mean, but Western Illinois went 5-4 without him.  They ended the season 8-20.  Math.

Transferred:

Tyson Reynold – The 6’9″ junior from New York played a total of 14 minutes and scored 2 points for Western Illinois.  Remember the fallen.

Kendall Rollins- Never played.

Mavs take on Summit’s top defenses in three days

acroth86 College Basketball , , , , , , , ,

What a great freaking weekend for UNO Athletics for events.  A top 15 match up in Hockey versus Denver on Friday and Saturday nights.  UNO women basketball is at Denver on Thursday, and then they have a week to prepare for South Dakota State.  The UNO men have their first two home conference games against North Dakota State on Thursday and South Dakota State on Saturday, each of these two home games are on ESPN3.

The Red Army says I need to hate Denver.  I don’t know why, but if they need the support I am in on it.  I would still love it if UNO, Denver, the Summit League, and the NCHC could find a way to coordinate a weekend of UNO-Denver basketball & hockey in Denver.  It would be a lot of work, but I don’t know many Omahans that don’t like traveling to Denver.  I highly doubt there are too many Denverans that just love getting out to Omaha though.  So wait, yeah, screw Denver.

Okay, on to basketball.  Last year, Derrin Hansen mentioned that a goal of the men’s basketball program was to get to the same level as North Dakota State and South Dakota State.  Not a bad goal, they are consistently the two top teams in the league and we are all along I-29.  They have each made a name for themselves around the country and both come from the same division two background as UNO.

Much of the weekend’s success depends on the health of juniors Jake White and Devin Patterson.  White claimed to be feeling great before the Mavs took on Western Illinois but Patterson did not play.  Last week, White averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds in his first two games back, so hopefully he’s still feeling great because the Mavericks need that, especially against SDSU’s Cody Larson.  Patterson is especially needed for his perimeter defense, and the offense is completely different without him.  The Mavs do not seem to get out to the same pace that they like to play without Patterson in the line up.  It has been mentioned that Jake White will return to the starting line up at some point and I kind of expect him to be back in the starting five this weekend.

North Dakota State

I didn’t pick North Dakota State too high, but they have started conference play off at 2-0, so I feel and look like a stupid head.  They picked up their wins against two of the better, on paper, teams in the Summit League, South Dakota State and Oral Roberts in Fargo.  The Bison only won these two games by a combined total of 9 points, but a roll is a roll, a toll is a toll, and a win is a win.  That’s a Robin Hood: Men in Tights Reference.  If you do not enjoy that film, we would probably have communication issues.

Against Oral Roberts, senior guard Lawrence Alexander scored a career high 31 points, the team shot 11-22 on threes (to ORU’s 10-15),  and as a team they turned over the ball only 6 times.  They also shot 19-20 from the free throw line.  Alexander didn’t get much help from anyone else in the win, no one really shot that particularly well except for sophomore forward Dexter Werner who went 5-9 from the floor for 13 points.

Against South Dakota State, Alexander got more help from his teammates, junior guard Kory Brown led the Bison with 17 points on 8-13 shooting.  The Bison didn’t do as well from three on only 5-17, and they also only shot 17-27 from the free throw line.  But again, the Bison only had 6 turnovers.

As stated before, the Bison are not that deep.  They only play 7, maybe 8 players, when they have to.  Of those 8 players, Alexander is the only senior, two are juniors, two are sophomores, and three are freshmen.  They average the least amount of turnovers in the Summit League, they don’t even average 10, they average 9.2 turnovers a game.  How does such an inexperienced team average so little turnovers?  The Mavs do average nearly 9 steals a game, which is the highest in the Summit, so hopefully they can force the Bison to some turnovers and get them out of their usual rhythm.

I’ve had to listen to the last three UNO games on the radio.  I realized each game I would find myself muttering – why does this (opposing) team make so many threes?  And yes, there were some expletives mixed in.  Chicago State shot 8-16 on threes against UNO, South Dakota was 10-24 from downtown, and Western Illinois went 10-25 from deep.  Looking more into it, UNO has given up the most threes in the conference AND other than Western Illinois they have played the least amount of games at 14.  The Bison are tied at second with South Dakota in the conference in three point field goal percentage.  So this should be a point of worry I would think…

The Bison do not have much size down low, but they do have a lot of size on the wing.  Their main rotation:

F  Chris Kading                       6-8

F  AJ Jacobson                         6-6

G  Kory Brown                        6-4

G  Lawrence Alexander       6-3

G  Carlin Dupree                     6-3

G  Paul Miller                           6-4

F  Dexter Werner                   6-6

So Rostampour, White, Thurman, Murry, and Meyer hold a size advantage in the post.  The Bison have had success with this not being much of a problem, but when the Mavericks get the ball in the paint, they need to capitalize.  With the size of NDSU at the wing position, and lack of size in the post, maybe this means more playing time for Randy Reed this weekend.

UNO has not had much luck against the Bison in recent.  They are 0-5 against the Bison since transitioning and 0-4 in conference play.  The Mavericks have lost 98-65, 95-51, 84-57, 91-69, and 75-59 so it has not exactly been close.  There is no longer a guy named Taylor Braun who had 31 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Bison’s last win against the Mavs.  Nor is there 6’8″ Marshall Bjorklund or 6’7″ TrayVonn Wright, so the Bison’s size that always gave the Mavs big problems is no longer their advantage.

Last season Alexander shot 7-24 in his two games against the Mavericks, so maybe the Mavericks have him figured out.  Alexander is also averaging 38+ minutes so far this season due to the lack of the depth for the Bison.  Not sure if the time is now, but that will eventually catch up with anyone.  Do you pay attention to Creighton?  Remember when Greg McDermott played Antoine Young a ridiculous amount of minutes his senior season?  It caught up to Young and it became difficult for him to close out games.  38+ minutes a game against the Mavs pace of play is not a good recipe for Lawrence Alexander.

CJ Carter averaged 14 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists and shot 8-18 in two games against the Bison last season.  Rostampour fouled out each game, and neither Patterson or Tyus did all that well against the Bison.  Patterson shot 4-19 from the field and 2-8 on threes in two games against the Bison, and Tyus shot 2 of 8 from the field in two games against the Bison last season.  Tyus has become a stud recently and Patterson has been hurt, but a bad recipe for the Mavs against the Bison would be if 2 of your top players can not score the ball, and your top rebounder is on the bench with foul trouble.

South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits are always a league favorite, but they have started conference play off at 0-2, with a loss at Denver and before mentioned North Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits were on a seven game winning streak before dropping four in a row, and will play Western Illinois on Wednesday.

Wisconsin transfer George Marshall did not play well against North Dakota State.  He shot 1 of 9 from the field, but he has hit a three in every single game he has played in so far.  At 5’11” he’s not exactly a pure point guard, he’s more a shooting guard, but I would assume that either CJ Carter or Devin Patterson would be assigned to Marshall.

South Dakota State does not really have much height with Cody Larson being the only player that is taller than 6’6″ that gets significant minutes, but the Jackrabbits still lead the Summit with over 4 blocks a game as a team.  They also have the best defensive field goal percentage in the Summit League with teams are only shooting 42% against SDSU.  Actually they are are 42.1% and North Dakota State is at 42.2%, so UNO is playing two of the best defenses in the League in three days.  So that’s fun.  Teams are also only shooting 33% on threes against the Jackrabbits.  In their current losing steak, the only team that has shot less than 33% on threes against them was North Dakota State, who again, doesn’t turn the ball over and defends well.  SDSU was also down by as many as 20 at one point in the first half and ended up only losing by 3.

Omaha!  Omaha!

The health of Devin Patterson and Jake White is obviously a huge key.  No team is going to do that great when you take two of their best players off the court.  Maybe SDSU is not the same away from Brookings, just about every team is better at home.  All seven of their losses have been away or at a neutral site.  But I think UNO will split this weekend, it is tough to pick up back to back wins against NDSU and SDSU.  I don’t believe any team did it last year when the two schools were travel partners.

Both NDSU and SDSU are larger at the wing positions, but both are smaller in the post, so UNO needs to out run and/or post and score in the paint.  I was listening to Jacob Padilla talk on 1620 the Zone Tuesday night and he spoke of how size was an issue for Creighton.  They are starting three guys at 6’2″ and under, and with teams having bigger wing players, opposing teams can shoot right over the top of Creighton’s wings.  UNO definitely has the same issue with Marcus Tyus, CJ Carter, and Patterson all under 6’2″.  When the NDSU and SDSU wings miss shots, UNO’s posts need to grab boards and get possessions.

Free throws have been an issue for the Mavericks recently:

20-38 vs. Chicago State – L

21-30 vs. South Dakota – W

25-39 vs. Western Illinois – L

There was a period of six minutes in the second half at Western Illinois where each team was fouling and it was a free throw contest for that span.  The Leathernecks would continuously go 2 of 2 on each trip to the line, where the Mavericks would only hit 1 of 2.  If both of the games against NDSU and SDSU remain close games in the second half, UNO can not continue with the same free throw issues.  Hopefully the Mavs can overcome this with their best free throw shooter, Devin Patterson, back in the line up.

Mike Rostampour said on 1620 the Zone on Tuesday night that this Mav team can beat anyone and lose to anyone.  That is entirely true.  The Mavs can either win with smart play or shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, bad defensive possessions, and poor free throw shooting.  Hopefully with Devin Patterson and Jake White back in the line up, the Mavs can return to full strength and we can see just how good this 2014-2015 Maverick team is.

 

 

 

A pretty bias view of the Summit League

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I think it’s pretty pointless to create preseason rankings and predictions before the non conference schedule.  They never really take transfers, junior college players, or freshmen into account.  Just:  This team has this returning, so screw it, we’ll pick them as number one. The non conference schedule is over now (well UNO has North Dakota at the end of the year), so maybe it’s time to start with some predictions?

There is not really a team that is far out ahead of the rest of the conference this year as compared to North Dakota State last year, or South Dakota State in 2012-2013.  There is not a Nate Wolters caliber player really, or even a Taylor Braun.  There isn’t really a large amount of great post players in the Summit this season, but there are a lot of great players at the wing position.  So how do I think it could end up?

1. South Dakota State  9-5  RPI:  141

Before the year started, I thought that South Dakota State would be the best team in league.  In my opinion, they have the league’s best post player Cody Larson, please don’t mistake me for thinking of him as the best post player in the league for me liking him as a person though.  Between watching on tv and in person, I’ve only seen Cody Larson play in five games, and he was kind of a whiny guy when I saw him in person…granted who knows what Mike Rostampour was doing on the floor to get him in a bad mood.  He sure is consistent though.  He averaged 13 points per game, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists last season, and he is doing the exact same thing through 14 games this season.

At the beginning of the year I wrote out some random and awful notes about each team’s roster and miscellaneous stuff.   My notes for SDSU:  Best post player, 2 seniors, 5 juniors, best coach in the league, big team, lots of size, Wisconsin transfer (George Marshall)…

Any time you have a former SEC and a former Big 10 player on the same team in a conference like the Summit League, you’re going to have some success.

2. IPFW  7-6  RPI: 262

The Summit League picked IPFW to win the conference, and it makes a lot of sense.  The Mastadons have size, experience, and really a good all around roster.

Steve Forbes missed 3 games due to an injury, but once he’s back to his regular Hulk like strength, the ‘dons will get on a roll going into conference play.  He returned against Cal Poly and picked up 12 points on 4-12 shooting and only had 2 rebounds.  He’s not going to stay at that poor shooting and that little amount of rebounds forever.  When you first see Forbes you instantly make fun of him.  How could that 300 pound guy run?  Does IPFW have a football team?  Then he starts posting up, and you realize it creates several problems for your teams post players.  It can create a lot of fouls on your team trying to keep him out of the paint.  Out of the 10 games that Forbes has played in, he has had 4 double-doubles, yeah one was against Michigan-Dearborn, but another was against Georgia Tech.

Alongside Forbes the ‘dons have Joe Reed at 6’8″ who is capable of getting 10 points a game.  IPFW also has Isaiah McCray, Mo Evans, and Joe Edwards who all score in double figures.  They have several weapons, it’s true.

Yet despite having a well balanced lineup, IPFW best win from an RPI stand point is over Miami (OH) at 297.  The ‘dons do beat the teams they are supposed to beat, so when they’re picked to win the Summit, maybe they will win the conference they are supposed to win.

3. Denver  6-7  RPI: 228

The Pioneers don’t score a lot of points, they don’t rebound the ball very well, but they play the Princeton offense and they do it well.  As a team the Pioneers shoot 49% from the field, 73% from the line, and 39% on threes, and they only turn the ball over 11 times a game.  Sure their games may be boring and no they haven’t won consecutive games yet this year, but they’re a tough play.  Only 3 of their losses have been rough.  The Pioneers lost by one to undefeated Colorado State, by two to Bryant, by six to Stanford in Palo Alto, and by ten to ranked Northern Iowa.

Denver only has 2 seniors and 4 juniors, but they’re all good and all essential to the operation of the team.  Senior wings Cam Griffin and Brett Olson lead the show and are enough for the Pioneers to pick up wins.  The Pioneers don’t really have much size with only two players that are 6’7″ or taller, but you don’t really need much of a post game when you’re running the Princeton offense.

4. Oral Roberts  6-7  RPI:  210

Coming back the Summit League, Oral Roberts had a tough non conference schedule, but Oral Roberts has always been cool with that.  They feel it makes them a better team by the time non conference comes, and that’s probably true.  They were able to pick up a win against city rival Tulsa who is currently sitting at 61 in RPI.

Scott Sutton is a good coach, he’ll have his team ready.  By the way when I started this I was mixing his name up with Sean Sutton…absolutely the wrong person to mix him up with.  Scott Sutton is rumored for a job at a bigger conference school every year and it never happens.  When ORU Athletic Director is contacted for a reference I find myself wondering if it’s like on The Office when Will Ferrell is giving Ed Helms a reference but is constantly referring to him as completely average.  If you want someone to go above and beyond, then yes, he’s probably not your guy.  Though if you want someone, who will do just enough to keep you happy, then yes Andy Bernard is the guy for you.

Oral Roberts is led by possibly the toughest 1-2 punch at the wing position in the Summit with junior wings Korey Billbury and Obi Emegano who lead the team in scoring and in rebounding.  Again not much size to this team with only 3 players at 6’7″ or taller, but Oral Roberts has a good history in the Summit.

5. Omaha  6-6  RPI:  309

So clearly a blog called “Omavs Blog” is going to have more details on the Omaha Mavericks, but I’ll try to not talk about it too much because much of it has already been talked about.  We thought the win over Marquette was the biggest non conference win by a Summit League team, and it’s the biggest name that a Summit League team beat, but Oral Roberts has the best RPI win with their win over Tulsa.  Omaha also has the worst loss to Chicago State, and in my completely bias opinion, the Mavericks would’ve won that game with Devin Patterson and Jake White in the lineup.  They’re both incredibly important to the team.

If the Mavs continue to have injury problems, they will not finish in the top half of the league, but that’s true with anyone really.  There are still a lot of new faces for the Mavs and trying to figure out a rotation with Jake White and now Devin Patterson out of the lineup has created some issues of getting into a flow with the Mavericks.  The Mavs have size and balance on their roster for the first time, they just need to get it all out on the court for once for a few consecutive games.  The biggest problem for the Mavs is turnovers, too many damn turnovers.

6. North Dakota State  8-5  RPI:  232

Yeah I went there.  I like North Dakota State, so it’s incredibly sad that I’m not entirely sold on them.  They lost a lot from their conference championship team last year.  Yes, they have the best player in the conference, Lawrence Alexander, and A.J. Jacobson is right up there with Tre’Shawn Thurman as contenders for Freshman of the Year, but they are quite young with only 3 upper classmen and have a new (but good) coach.  They don’t shoot all that well as a team at 40%, but they only turn the ball over 10 times a game.  NDSU also is quite big, their shortest player is only 6’2″.

There isn’t really a win that sticks out for the Bison as far as anything that should be shocking.  The Bison are another team that win the games they are supposed to win.  They did start the year out rough on the road against Texas and Iowa, losing both games by 30 plus.  The Mavs are 0-4 against North Dakota State since joining the Summit League, but could this be the year Omaha picks up a win against the Bison, or at least not get embarrassed?

7.  South Dakota  6-8  RPI:  284

Yes, I went there again.  Several people were down on the Coyotes before the season started, with good reason, but 6-8 in non conference for South Dakota is far above anyone’s expectations.  UNO beating Marquette was a big surprise for everyone, but South Dakota taking Creighton to two overtimes and only losing by 3?  That’s the biggest surprise in the Summit League in my opinion.

It’s been kind of a running theme that many of the teams around the conference are pretty young, but everyone in South Dakota’s rotation is a junior or senior, and they can shoot.  I probably sound like I am in love with experience or something, but in a conference like the Summit League, experience matters.  There was always that high school team that was never really had that great of a roster, but they were loaded with seniors, and those teams can surprise someone from time to time for an upset.

Has anyone noticed that 6’3″ Tyler Larson is averaging 16 points per game and 8 rebounds per game?  He’s also leading his team in assists with 3.6 per game.  Any team in the Summit would kill for that production.

8.  Western Illinois  5-6  RPI:  323

Garret Covington is a great player, but there is not much else going on with the Leathernecks.  As a team they only shoot 32% on threes, and 40% from the floor.  Ouch.  They have 5 wins, but two of them are against Anderson and Greenville, you probably haven’t heard of them… Another two of their wins were only by three points at home.

Junior College transfer JC Fuller has shown some promise and is starting to show some consistency scoring in double figures in their last 4 non conference games.  Fuller, to some extent, had some interest from Omaha.

9.  IUPUI  4-10  RPI:  293

Honestly, I’m surprised the Jaguars have four wins.  They don’t score many points, in fact, their leading scorer Marcellus Barksdale only averages 8.4 points per game.  They also don’t rebound that well, or shoot that well at 40% from the field.  Let’s just say this isn’t going to be their year.

But looking ahead, they have a brand new arena, and have you seen the dorms at IUPUI?  It’s like living in a 5 star hotel.  Matt O’Leary, Nick Osborne, Darell Combs, and Jordan Pickett are all sitting out due to transfer, and they’re all guys that would help this team out this year.  When you have a pretty young roster getting playing time and learning to play together, and then the next year you throw in some guys that have played and sat out a year to basically practice, you’re going to improve quickly when those transfer players get eligible next season.

All Summit League First Team

C  Steve Forbes  SR  IPFW

F  Cody Larson  SR  South Dakota State

G  Tyler Larson  SR  South Dakota

G  Lawrence Alexander  SR  North Dakota State

G  Devin Patterson  JR  Omaha

All Summit League Second Team  (Alphabetical Order)

G  Korey Billbury  JR  Oral Roberts

G  CJ Carter  SR  Omaha

G  Garret Covington  SO  Western Illinois

G  Obi Emegano  JR  Oral Roberts

G  Cam Griffin  SR  Denver

All Freshmen Team

G  Aaron Brennan  IUPUI

F  A.J. Jacobson  North Dakota State

G  Paul Miller  North Dakota State

G  Reed Tellinghuisen  South Dakota State

F  Tre’Shawn Thurman  Omaha