Korey Billburry

My precarious Summit League preseason rankings

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This intro is copied from yesterday’s post…

Sometimes I find preseason predictions pointless, other than starting a conversation about the upcoming season or letting people know what could potentially be the biggest games of the year, there is not really much of a point to it.

I mainly find them useless because of the methodology in ranking teams.  Many seem to just copy and past the standings of last year, and then make a small edit if a team had a high amount of turnover from last season’s roster.  But I came up with a plan to do this for the Summit League.  I was reading some preseason predictions for the Big 10 football season which was done by a bunch of ESPN writers.  Some made good points but they all had to come up with a record for each team, and the math did not always make sense.  One clown had Ohio State going 12-0 with a 8-0 Big Ten record and Michigan State going 11-1, and also with a 8-0 Big Ten record.  Seriously, how drunk and lazy and/or bad at math was that guy?  Or some guys would have two teams going 8-0 in conference, a couple going 0-8, and everyone else going 5-3.  The math didn’t add up and they were telling you that these teams would win these amount of games because they are Skeletor and they said so.

So I came up with a plan.  I would go through the Summit League conference schedule and assign wins and losses over the course of a number of weeks.  At first it was just: South Dakota State is a better team than Denver, so win goes to the Jackrabbits.  Then later, I would look at the difficulty of each team’s conference schedule.  Obviously, everyone plays each other twice, but there are some things that stick out; like how Denver is the only team with the highway to the danger zone in playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State in back to back games.  Or how South Dakota and Oral Roberts are the only two Summit League teams without three straight games on the road in conference play.  Then things like Omaha playing on the road against someone on a Thursday, as road games on Thursdays appear to be difficult for most teams.  Actually road games are pretty difficult for anyone.  Then I would go through the schedule again and consider some teams’ strengths versus their opponents weaknesses.  Like how teams better be good at three point shooting against South Dakota as they forced teams to take the most threes with their defense…and other things.

But I assigned wins and losses to each game, and did it several times considering different factors.  Then I plain and simple would add up each team’s wins and losses to see who had the most after going through it about 15 times.  Is it perfect?  No.  Is it better than just saying South Dakota State will go 15-1 in conference because of Jesus?  Probably.

Really, after going through all of this; I really do not see much separation between many of the teams.  South Dakota State seems like a clear cut favorite.  Then North Dakota State seems like they are 2nd best, but they really should not be as comfortable as one would think.  Then Oral Roberts-Omaha-IPFW-IUPUI-South Dakota appear to be in a fight for spots 3 to 7 with Denver and Western Illinois sitting at 8 and 9; but Denver is a difficult place to play; and Western Illinois, while not great last year, they do return basically everything.

So much of the 3 to 9 in the Summit League appears to come down to:

  • Who can stay healthy?
  • Who can win on the road?
  • Who can pick up a win against South Dakota State and North Dakota State?

South Dakota State

Range of wins: 13 to 15

This team’s back court is extremely good, and the Jackrabbits could score 30 points a game on just three pointers alone.  The obvious question mark for the team is who is going to rebound and play center?  Scott Nagy has admitted to not knowing what to do there.  I think one of the most underrated part of Cody Larson’s game was his passing ability.  A big man that can pass is so huge for your team.  He could draw in the double team and kick it out to the open man, or pass it to a driving player, and it was just a huge weapon for the Jackrabbits.

Their three game road stretch of at North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and South Dakota is an extremely tough road stretch for them, but they will be fine in the end.  They start their conference schedule at home with Denver and Western Illinois… must be rough.

North Dakota State

Range of wins:  10 to 13

At first I just thought to myself: oh they have everyone back, and they have enough players to make up for the loss of Lawrence Alexander, so they should just own this conference.  Then I thought: replacing Lawrence Alexander might be one of the most difficult things to ever overcome.  So much of their offense was based on what Alexander could do, and he only had two games last season where he did not score in double figures.  No player in Bison history won more games at North Dakota State than Lawrence Alexander.  Teams generally have a significant drop off when they lose one of their best players in program history, but somehow I still really like them to finish 2nd in the conference.

Dave Richman has this team completely confident though and they are buying into his system, and their team motto is: just get better and better every day…which they do a good job of doing.  One thing that is scary to think about in addition to losing one of the program’s best players in history: is the fact that they went 12-4 in the Summit League last season, but they did not exactly blow anyone out.  Only three of their wins were by more than 10 points, and one of those was a revenge game against South Dakota where Alexander had 31 points on 11-14 shooting.  So who is for sure going to score the ball down the stretch when they find themselves in close games this season?  I am not saying that they cannot find anyone, but it is something to definitely consider.

The Bison probably have the best post game cores in the league with AJ Jacobson, Dexter Werner, and Chris Kading; but Kading is coming off some summer surgeries.   They can go small, they can go big with those three; the three of them each bring something different to their front court to give them several different options.  The Bison also appear to be extremely excited about freshman Deng Geu, but they have also stated that they may redshirt him.

They lucked out with the greatest 3 game road stretch ever.  They are at IPFW on a Thursday and then at Western Illinois on a Saturday, they then have a 8 day break before playing on the road at IUPUI.

Omaha

Range of wins: 7 to 11

I already talked about the Mavs

I realize I look like a total homer placing them this high.

Oral Roberts

Range of wins: 7 to 10

At first, I thought no way on this team.  They have lost too many players in the last few seasons, the newcomers do not look all that great, and they might even be one of the least deep teams in the Summit League, which is almost an accomplishment.  Then I remembered that is the exact same thing that I thought about North Dakota State last season.  Obi Emegano is going to have to have to be the same type of player that Lawrence Alexander was for North Dakota State last season, which is something that he appears to be capable of.

No one seems to be taking the losses of Korey Billbury, Denell Henderson, and Bobby Word very seriously though.  Billbury was potentially a 1st Summit Team player, and he is being replaced by unproven guys.  The whole team is completely changed.  Their two top returning guys (Emegano and Brandon Conley) had shoulder surgery over the summer as well, and did not play in their summer trip.  There is a lot to point at and say that this why they wont be a top 3 team in the conference, but for some reason, I always consider them a top 4 team in this conference.  I just think Scott Sutton is that good of a coach and that Obi Emegano is that good of a player.  Sutton has finished in the top 3 in the Summit League in every season that they were in the Summit League since 2003-2004.

I would not be shocked if this team finished 2nd in the conference, and I would not be totally surprised if they finished 8th in the conference.  There is just no telling what is going to happen.  Jalen Bradley appears to be in the perfect situation playing alongside Emegano.  Freshman Javan White, while he looks like you could snap his arm like a twig, seems like he can really help the Golden Eagles in the low post in a league with not much depth in post players this season.

The start of the conference season does not look like a big help to them.  Three teams they can beat, but on the road against IPFW, then back home for South Dakota, then back on the road against Denver, then back home for North Dakota State.  They make up for it late in the season when they have three straight home games against IUPUI, Western Illinois, and Denver.

IUPUI

Range of wins:  6 to 10

This team was picked last in the preseason rankings before the start of last season.  Everyone thought it was one of the worst rosters they had ever seen, but they were able to pick up 6 wins with that roster.  What were they bad at last year?  3 point shooting…fine add Darell Combs, a transfer that made 32 threes in his sophomore year at Eastern Michigan.  Rebounding…fine add two 6’8″ transfers from Loyola.  Too many turnovers…fine, everyone that turned the ball over the most left the team, except for Marcellus Barksdale who handled the ball the most for the team.  Guard dominated league?  Fine, put Marcellus Barksdale on Obi Emegano or Garret Covington on any given night.  Hell, they don’t even see him as their best perimeter defender.

The roster has improved, the coaches have a year of being together under their belt, and the program is improving more and more every day.  They did hold an open scrimmage this week, but had 3 newcomers sitting out with some nagging injuries.  One of the players that sat out was Jordan Pickett who transferred from Loyola where he had a history of injury problems, and it sounds like the Jaguars were expecting him to be one of the team’s primary ball handlers.  That could become an issue.

They might be one the most boring team to ever watch, but you cannot ignore their improvement and upside.  They also had Marcellus Barksdale playing four different positions last season in just about every single game, and he will not have to take on as much of a load this season with the additions to this team.

South Dakota

Range of wins:  5 to 8

I admit that I really like Craig Smith, and I think the loss of him as an assistant coach was a big factor as to why the Huskers had a drop off last season.  Some of these preseason rankings appear to just rating the Coyotes around 5th primarily on the fact that Craig Smith is their coach…and I am totally cool with that.  This team lost the most scoring in the Summit League, their team has been plagued with injuries in the preseason, oh and the staff currently has no idea who is going to score the ball for them.  Spots 3-9 in the Summit League could be incredibly close, injuries could ruin any team, as well as pretty much starting 3 weeks later than everyone else as far as full team practices go.

Another thing that is kind of weird is that Trey Norris is probably their starting point guard, who started is sophomore year, but Smith thought it was a much better decision to send him to the bench in his junior year.  So does Smith even believe in his point guard?  Also Tyler Flack is returning from a back injury.  You back isn’t important in basketball, is it?  I was on the Craig Smith can coach this team to 3rd or 4th bandwagon, but there seems to be something new every week that continues to point to the fact that this is going to be a long year for the Coyotes.

This team though is going to force teams to take 3s on them.  They forced their opponents to take the most amount of threes last season, and held them to the lowest three point field goal percentage in the Summit League…so you kind of need to be able to hit the three against them.

IPFW

Range of wins:  5 to 7

I have seen this team ranked any from 4th to 6th in preseason rankings.  The Summit League ranked them as the 4th best team.  I don’t see it.  They return the 2nd least amount of scoring the Summit League, and they return the least amount of division one starts on their team.  The losses of Steve Forbes, Joe Edwards, and Isaiah McCray seem too big.  It seems like they are asking their newcomers to do too much and are placing too high of expectations on them.  They think Brent Calhoun is going to have a breakout year because he lost a bunch of weight and is really healthy, but let’s wait a few games to see how much of an asset that can be.  They are putting a lot of emphasis on redshirt freshman John Konchar to be an undersized 4 man and play small ball this season.

I am just not sold on this team yet.  This team was the worst free throw shooting team in the Summit League, but I think they really are going to improve there, which could help them with some of the rule changes, but teams should be adjusted to the rule changes come conference play.  I do think this team does have probably the best order of games in the conference as well.  Oral Roberts at home on a Wednesday, South Dakota at home on a Wednesday, North Dakota State at home on a Thursday, South Dakota State at home on a Thursday; and on top of that they never have three games in a row in which they should not be completely unfavored.  Have to give credit to the fact that they have one of the top back courts in the league with Mo Evans and Max Landis, but who knows how valuable that can be in a back court dominated league…says the guy that bases part of Omaha’s potential success on the Mavericks having one of the top back courts in the league.

The team did underachieve last season, but Joe Reed admitted that last year’s team was just completely focused on the Summit League tournament, and did not look at their season on a game-by-game basis.  He said they are more focused on taking it one game at a time this season.  I will be surprised if this team ends up in the top half of the Summit League, but they could do it with lucky breaks with injuries to other teams and whatnot.  It is a young team, and a team of mostly newcomers.  I will say if they can keep this roster together, add their two transfers sitting out this season, and a 6’10” freshman that recently committed, that the Mastodons will be a very good team against the Summit League in 2016-2017.

Denver

Range of wins:  2 to 7

There are many question marks for this team.  I am really curious how a 30 second shot clock affects a team in the Princeton offense, probably not a ton, but it has to affect it in some way shape or form.  Denver does have 3 seniors to run that offense, but they do have 13 underclassmen on their team that have to learn that offense and be prepared to hit shots with the shot clock winding down.  Denver can pick up a few wins at home with their elevation advantage,  style of play, and Joe Scott’s coaching abilities, but do you really feel fully confident in 9 freshman and 4 sophomores on the road in conference play?  They also have 3 seasons in a row of declining in wins, so it is not like there is a bunch of momentum heading into this season.  Not to mention, they were picked 2nd in preseason polls last season.  I have seen them ranked as low as 9th in the Summit and as high as 6th.

This team should have a pretty decent non-conference season though with no power teams on their schedule, and Wyoming is the hardest team on their non-conference schedule, who lost everyone.   The start to the conference schedule is not very kind to the Pioneers.  They start off with with two weekend games on the road against North Dakota State and South Dakota State, and then they have Oral Roberts at home…so they are starting off with the three teams that are known for being the toughest in the Summit League.  After the Golden Eagles, they have IPFW at home who swept them last season by 16 point margins in each game; and then they are back on the road for games against Western Illinois and IUPUI.  It is possible that they start the conference season at 0-6.  Talk about momentum!

Western Illinois

Range of wins: 2 to 5

No one is taking Western Illinois very seriously, and it completely makes sense.  They ended 2014-2015 on a nine game losing streak and they were 0-8 in Summit League road games.  Western Illinois is not an easy place for other teams to pick up wins though.  They were 3-5 at home, and they lost both of their home games to North Dakota State and South Dakota State by 2.

It also seems like everyone on this team was injured at some point, and they return the most scoring in the Summit League at 89% of their offense.  They are also very excited about their two freshmen 6’11” Brandon Gilbeck and 5’11” DeAngelo Brewster.  Gilbeck and Brewster do not need to carry the load for this team with Garret Covington, JC Fuller, and Jabari Sandifer still on this team, but they need to just be role players; so it is not like they have any pressure on them.  It is completely easy to write off the Leathernecks and pencil them in as the worst team in the Summit League, but they could seriously surprise a couple teams this year and pick up a shocking win or two.  The toughest part of the season for them is going to be when they 6 out of 8 games on the road in the conference.

But the serious questions were all no for the Leathernecks last year.  Can they stay healthy?  No.  Can they win on the road?  No.  Can they beat South Dakota State or North Dakota State?  No.

The basketball wild cards of the Summit League

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With players coming and going, roles need to be filled on teams, and some players just respond quicker than others.  North Dakota State’s AJ Jacobson clearly had a big year as a redshirt freshman, which was a huge help to the Bison as they lost three key seniors from their 2014 championship team.  IUPUI’s Marcellus Barksdale went from averaging 0.3 points per game as a freshman in 2012-13 to averaging 8.6 points per game in his sophomore season, and now is considered an All Conference candidate by many.  South Dakota State’s Keaton Moffitt transferred from a division 2 program to be a top guy off the bench for the Jackrabbits.  Omaha’s Mike Rostampour made an immediate impact with Omaha in his junior season after transferring from division 2.

With the Bison and Jackrabbits as the two favorites to repeat as the two top teams in the Summit League, the league seems to look like it will be in a pretty tight battle for who is 3rd to 8th (or 9th) in the conference standings at the end of the year.  So who are some of the potential wild cards in the Summit League that can set their team apart in 2015-2016?

 

Denver

EVERYONE ON THE ROSTER NOT NAMED MARCUS BYRD, NATE ENGESSER, OR BRYANT RUCKER

Here is a statistic that may jump out at you.  Denver returns the second fewest amount of division one starts on their roster in the Summit League, behind IPFW.  They are a young team, though so was North Dakota State last season, with 6 freshman and 4 sophomores on the roster, so I am incredibly curious who can make up for the losses of Cam Griffin, Brett Olson, and Jalen Love.

The team virtually has no post game, but it is not really something that is incredibly needed in the Princeton offense.  Barry Collier ran the Princeton offense really well without a competent big man at Nebraska.  That was a really bad joke.  Could sophomore Daniel Amigo make a big jump if he is healthy?  He started in all 15 of the games he played in during his freshman year averaging 5.7 points per game, and had three double digit scoring performance, but they were all in blow outs.

Daniel Amigo is super serial.
Daniel Amigo is super serial.

IPFW

JOHN KONCHAR – 6’4″, rFR

Could Konchar be a big time player as a freshman.  He redshirted in his first season with the ‘Dons, I assume because of the 4 upperclassmen guards that were on the roster last season.  Konchar averaged 29 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game in his senior season in high school in Chicago.  Holy crap!  He did see action in IPFW’s preseason game last season, but he only had 3 points in 15 minutes, but hey it was a preseason game.

RACHINE TALLA – 6’9″, SO

Talla is seriously the biggest question mark for IPFW.  He redshirted at USC Upstate his freshman season, and then only played in 2 games in junior college because Mississippi is the worst place on earth.  So how much of an impact can a guy be who has basically not played a competitive game of basketball in 3 years.

IUPUI

JORDAN PICKETT – 6’0″, SO

Pickett transferred to IUPUI after only playing in five games at Loyola before suffering a season ending injury in 2013-2014.  The Jaguars do not have much of a back court, they have a lot of 6’5″ guards, but can the bigger players deal with all of the smaller shooting guards the Summit League has to offer.  Pickett is likely to have a big role for the Jaguars in 2015-2016.  In the Jaguars’ red-white scrimmage last season, which was basically IUPUI vs their players who were forced to redshirt due to transferring, Pickett was able to score 11 points against…the Jaguars.

NICK OSBORNE- 6’8″, JR

One of three transfers from Loyola on the roster.  Osborne is expected to make an immediate impact with the Jaguars, as they have not had much talent in the post in a few years.  Osborne averaged 5.4 ppg and 4 rpg, and shot 50% from the field in his sophomore season at Loyola.  He did average 3 fouls per game, so curious to see how much time he will spend on the bench due to foul trouble in the Summit League.

How much of a difference can Nick Osborne make with the Jaguars.
How much of a difference can Nick Osborne make with the Jaguars.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE 

They lost Taylor Braun, Marshall Bjorklund, and TrayVonn Wright a year ago, and they ended up repeating as Summit League Champions with a 1st year coach.  I think they will be fine…

One could ask; who is going to be make up for the 19 points per game that they lost in Lawrence Alexander?  Can Kory Brown, Carlin Dupree, Paul Miller, and junior college transfer sophomore Malik Clements make up that 19 points a game in the back court?  Yes, they probably can.

OMAHA

JAKE WHITE- 6’8″, SR

Can Jake White be the best post player in the Summit League? Can he?
Can Jake White be the best post player in the Summit League? Can he?

Last year we were teased with White.  With 10 rebounds in his first half as a Maverick, we were thinking our front court would be unstoppable with him and Mike Rostampour.  Then a few minutes into the second half, White hurt his knee, and then for almost a month we kept being told: not this game, but next game probably…  If you look around the post players at the Summit League, White is capable of being the best post player in the League, but he has to stay healthy.  When White transferred, Derrin Hansen stated that White would be the best post player in the Summit.

DANIEL MEYER – 6’9″, SO

Meyer only played 4.5 minutes per game in his freshman season with the Mavericks, but with Mike Rostampour and Rylan Murry (i cried a tear) no longer on the roster, Meyer should expect more playing time in his sophomore season, I mean, right?  It sounded as if he did really well in Italy, but it did not sound like the teams the Mavs played against had many players taller than 6’5″…but I did not look at official rosters, just shady looking websites that did not look fully updated.  When Meyer did play last season, I was never terrified that he was going to ruin everything.  He seemed to move pretty well without the ball, set good screens, and had a nice touch.  He even looked like he could be as good as a passer out of the post as John Karhoff, but we will have to wait and see.

ORAL ROBERTS

ALBERT OWENS- 6’9″ SO

With the graduation of Denell Henderson, Owens will competing for the starting center position with junior college transfer Tre Vance.  Owens did average 3.8 ppg and 2.4 rpg, but he never really received any significant playing time in any of the Golden Eagles’ big games.  Yet, if you look around at some of the conference predictions, Owens is expected to be a big key factor to ORU’s success.  You know, assuming they have some success this season.

Owens had great size listed at 6'9" and 260lbs.
Owens has great size listed at 6’9″ and 260lbs.

JALEN BRADLEY- 6’0″ JR

Bradley is familiar with the Summit League, as he originally played for the Mavericks, but he only played in a total of 26 minutes against the Summit League due to injuries in 2013-2014.  Bradley went on to junior college for his sophomore season, where he averaged 17 points per game.  Everyone knew Bradley could shoot at Omaha, I remember watching him shoot from half court in warm ups and making it regularly, but we did question if he could defend or play the point guard position. While he was at Omaha, they were deep with guards with: CJ Carter, Marcus Tyus, Alex Phillips, Caleb Steffensmeier, Devin Patterson, and Justin Simmons.  The Mavericks could have used him in his sophomore season as that energy guy off the bench, and that would likely still be his role, but ORU fans are expecting him (and 6’3″ Div 2/Fresno State transfer Aaron Anderson) to fill a void left in Korey Billbury and Bobby Word.  That is a lot to ask.

SOUTH DAKOTA

TREY NORRIS – 6’0″ SR

Norris started in all 28 games he played in for the Coyotes in his sophomore season, but then was sent to the bench in his junior season as Craig Smith took over at South Dakota.  Can he be counted on to be the starter again and help lead the Coyotes to another winning record?

TYLER FLACK – 6’7″ JR

Sat out 2014-2015 with an injury.  He started 19 out of 29 games his freshman season and 27 out of 30 games in his sophomore season.  As a sophomore, he averaged 8.5 ppg and 4.7 rpg, he also shot 55% from the floor.  Is he going to be the same after a serious injury, and will Smith have big plans for Flack?

Can Tyler Flack be Tyler Flack again?
Can Tyler Flack be Tyler Flack again?

Here is a glaring stat for South Dakota.  I was looking at the South Dakota State fan forum, wishing I had it in me to do some trolling, and the Jackrabbits are pretty stoked that they return so much of their scoring.  The Jackrabbits return 74% of their scoring, which is second in the conference behind Western Illinois who returns 89% of their scoring, but that is Western Illinois… Anyway, South Dakota lost the most scoring in the Summit losing 54% of their scoring.  So they are going to need Flack and Norris to return to 2013-2014 form.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

CONNOR DEVINE/IAN THEISEN

Did I mention that South Dakota State is returning 74% of their scoring?  I think I just did that.  Most of that is the loss of Cody Larson.  The Jackrabbits arguably have the best guard trio in the Summit League with George Marshall, Deondre Parks, and Jake Bittle, but they are left with little in the post after the loss of Larson, and they are young in the post.  Devine and Theisen shared the time behind Cody Larson in the post last season, can they and freshman Nebraska natives Michael Daum and Adam Dykman make up for that loss in Larson?

WESTERN ILLINOIS

When you only when 8 games, you lose 13 of your last 14 games, one of your wins is a 2 point win at home against Devin Patterson-less Omaha team, and 15 of your 20 losses are by 10 points or more, there is not much confidence riding in your team going into the next season.  So basically everyone on your roster not named Garrett Covington is a wild card.

The Leathernecks did have some injury issues in 2014-2015, and they have the 2nd most returning division one starts on their roster in the Summit League behind North Dakota State, and as previously mentioned, they do return 89% of their scoring.

 

 

A little bit of preview for UNO versus Oral Roberts and IUPUI

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After playing the two teams in the Summit League with the best defensive field goal percentage, the Mavs will now have to play Oral Roberts, who has the 4th best defensive field goal percentage (Western Illinois is 3rd).  Then they have to play wildcard IUPUI.

The Mavs came close to North Dakota State and not so close to South Dakota State last week.  They know they need to move on, but now they have a road test against, historically, one of the best teams in the Summit League.  The coaches and players know and feel that they were a couple plays away from starting out conference play at 3-0, and Mike Rostampour is just pissed, and the senior leader should be.  Nothing comes easy in any conference and after starting league play at 1-3, now is the time to make those plays that would have put the Mavs at 3-1 now.  It is not the time to press the panic button.  NO BODY PANIC!  Actually, I’m not really sure if there is a panic button.  Other than possible CBI and CIT seedings and births, there is not really much of a difference if the the Mavs finish this year in the Summit between placing 2nd and 9th in the standings.  If the Mavs win the regular season, they do get some hardware, but it is not like they are going to get a participation medal for coming in 9th in the conference.  Mom, this is literally a medal for sucking.  But morally, we want to prove ourselves, that we know we belong here.  We’re not quite at the point of trading away all of the assets and tanking for the draft.  I am sorry, I am a Celtics fan, so I am bitter about some NBA things at the moment…  

Oral Roberts

Okay, I am going to throw something at you here.  The Mavs are going to have to go deep into the bench in this game.  Why would the Mavs have to go deep into the bench on a team that has the worst field goal percentage in the entire Summit League?  The Golden Eagles get to the line more than any other team in the Summit League, they shoot nearly 26 free throws a game.  They have the second worst three point field goal percentage in the league at 32.5%, so they are a team that needs to get to the basket, and with two of the best wings in the Summit League, they get to the basket.  Mike Rostampour will pick up a foul in this game, maybe even two, or maybe even five…  So the Mavs may have to get Daniel Meyer, Rylan Murry, and Randy Reed on the court more than they usually get out there.  In case you are curious, when the Mavs win Murry shoots 57% from the field, 55% from downtown and in their losses he shoots 35% from the field and 25% from long range.  So he might actually be a little more of an X-Factor than you might think.  Just saying.

RPI wise, Oral Roberts had the best win of the season against Tulsa to open up their season.  Maybe similar to the Mavs, they realize this was a long time ago, and now that they are 8-8, they have something to prove themselves.  Maybe the Mavs should not run the typical Mavs pace in this one.  The Golden Eagles average 65 points per game (not including their win over Haskell).  When Oral Roberts gets above 65 points they are 7-1.  Maybe UNO does not need to slow down the pace, but clearly, they need to play strong defense for all 40 minutes.

Obviously the Mavs need to shoot better coming off their two worst shooting performances of the season.  Oral Roberts may be in the top half of the league as far as defensive field goal percentage goes, but they have had a few poor shooting nights themselves so far, so here is an incredibly generic thing to say.  The Mavs need to play better on offense and defense.  That’s simple.  Well we are done here.

Here are some other random Mav numbers for you (not counting Iowa Wesleyan):

  • The Mavs are 5-1 when they hit more threes than their opponent, only loss to North Dakota State
  • The Mavs are 1-6 when they hit less threes than their opponent, only win to South Dakota
  • The Mavs are 0-3 when they hit the same amount of threes than their opponent

Hey, remember how Oral Roberts has the 2nd worst three point field goal percentage in the League?  They have also made the 2nd least amount of threes in the Summit League.  But again, they get to the line, A LOT.

  • The Mavs are 0-4 when 40% or more of their field goals taken are three point field goals

So it’s not exactly like they should just start jacking up threes, especially after a 1 of 16 performance, but they need to hit the open shots that they found against South Dakota State but could not convert on.  Seriously, how generic sports talk can this get?

With the talent they have, I am not even sure if they could beat Kentucky right now.  Crap, I am thinking about the Celtics again.

The Mavs do need to contain the wings for Oral Roberts.  Obi Emegano in his last five games has averaged 23 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists,  3.6 steals, and he has shot 50% (36-72) from the field.  He has also made 10 threes overall in the last 5 games after going 9 games in a row without a three.  Korey Billbury in the last five games has averaged 17 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and shot 39% from the field.  Billburry also made a total of 9 threes in the last 5 games, after only hitting a total of 5 in the Golden Eagles’ first 11 games.

This game is a homecoming for Tim Smallwood, a Tulsa native, so maybe he will play better.  Is that dumb to think that?  Seems like guys play better in situations like that, or on their birthday.  Seriously, you should see my career averages on my birthdays.  I was a quadruple 2 guy my whole life, 2 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals per game.  On my birthday, I averaged about 14 points and 5 rebounds a game.  Not to brag, okay I am bragging, but in intramurals at UNO, I had to guard a guy that had played at Midland University and he was about 5 inches taller than me, but I had 17 points with 5 threes that game.  It was literally my birthday.

Like Opponents?

Lost 72-66 to North Dakota State in Fargo.

Won 66-57 at Western Illinois

IUPUI 

Seriously everyone was sleeping on the IUPUI Jaguars before the start of the season, and many still are trying to wipe the morning fog out of their eyes.  They lost 6 in a row at one point, but now have gone on a win a game, lose a game pattern for their last 7 games.  If they continue the pattern, they would lose to South Dakota State and win at UNO.  That is how stats work, right?  They are 2-1 in the Summit with a wins over preseason league favorites IPFW and Denver, so this should have caught the attention of people…who pay attention.  They also took that team I was just talking about, Oral Roberts, to overtime.

There is not much size to the Jaguars, nor is there much experience, and their best players are currently sitting out due to transfer rules.  They do not make many threes, they have made the least amount of total threes in the conference, and they have the worst three point field goal percentage in the league.  They are just a little better than UNO at free throw percentage at 70% to UNO’s 69% but they do not get to the line nearly as much, UNO shoots 27 free throws a game, while IUPUI shoots 18 per game.  They average the second least amount of rebounds per game, after Denver who they defeated, but IUPUI has picked up more rebounds as of late.  The Jaguars also average the most turnovers in the league, so UNO who averages the most steals in the conference should be licking their chops.  Is licking chops still a saying?  What are chops?

None of their wins have been a beat down.  Of their 6 wins, the biggest amount of points they won by was 6 points to South Alabama.  One thing I have noticed about the Jaguars as compared to other Summit League teams, they have not played an opponent that was not division one.  So that whole thought process of In Order to Get Better You Have to Play the Best Competition might be coming together for IUPUI, as they are finally starting to pick up some wins.

One thing I notice while looking at all 6 of their wins, a low amount of threes taken.  Their three point attempts on wins, 10.6 attempts per game.  Their three point attempts on losses, 17.2.  Clearly, with the poor percentage and total number of made three point field goals, it is an area they struggle in, so they desperately need to get to the basket.  The Mavs need to keep them on the outside, just let them take threes.

UNO has yet to lose to IUPUI as Summit League opponents, and if the Jaguars pick up a win against the Mavericks this year, given how bad their roster is, I may just lose it.  They defeated IUPUI by 28 and 22 points last season.  CJ Carter has averaged 15.6 points, 4 assists, 2.3 steals, and has shot 19-30 in 3 career games against IUPUI.  In his sophomore season, Marcus Tyus averaged 15 points, 3.5 rebounds, and shot 12-22 against the Jaguars.  Mike Rostmapour has 18 and 9 in his first meeting against IUPUI and 9 and 8 in his second match up with IUPUI, and he also shot 9-13 on those two games.  Devin Patterson averaged 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2.5 steals, and shot 9-18 versus IUPUI last season.

For real, why do they think tanking for the draft is a good idea?  Has it ever worked out for them before? Drafting players is not their thing, draft day trades is their specialty!  Aw crap, sorry, the Celtics, they are getting to me.

A suggestion from a guy that has no business giving suggestions to a college athletics program:

Bring Marcus Tyus off the bench.

Okay, I hate the idea of it too.  I think Marcus Tyus has been the Mavs most efficient player this season, and has been huge.  It is nothing personal against Marcus Tyus, in fact, I hope this is a compliment.  Really, it should not matter to a player if you start the game or come off the bench, as long as you are on the court at the end, or your team has won.  This team does need a high energy guard off the bench, and Marcus Tyus is definitely a high energy player who can bring a spark off the bench.

You can not really put Patterson on the bench because of his ball handling ability, and for his control of the offense.  No one wants to put Carter on the bench, who has started all but three games in his career, and is the teams’ top scorer.  So unfortunately, Tyus is the nomination.

The 2013-2014 season, the best season for the Mavs so far in division one, Marcus Tyus came off the bench for half of the season.  With injuries to Justin Simmons, Tyus got the nod to start, and he played great, there is no question of that.  Last season, UNO was 8-8 with Tyus coming off the bench and 7-7 with Tyus starting, so it’s not like any of this makes sense with that in mind.  Four of the losses that he came off the bench though:  @ Iowa by 8, @ UNLV by 3, @ IPFW by 4, vs. IPFW by 1.

Whether Jake White gets back into the starting line up or not, the Mavs will have either he or Tre’Shawn Thurman coming off the bench in the post for a key role, but the Mavs do not really have a guard to come off the bench that has produced enough for that second wave of energy and activity.  If Justin Simmons was starting last season, Tyus and Phillips were both coming off the bench.  If Simmons was hurt and Tyus was starting, Phillips was still providing some energy off the bench.  Matt Hagerbaumer was always providing defensive energy in the post off the bench.  Reed and Smallwood have not produced as advertised, Rylan Murry has slipped in the last month, and walk on/great guy Kyler Erickson has been the guy to step up off the bench.  I am not sure who to start between Reed, Smallwood, and Murry.  Reed or Murry would provide more height, and the Mavs could start the game contesting the shots other teams’ 6’4″ – 6’6″ wings a little better, then BAM, Marcus Tyus off the bench for 8 quick points.  I am not saying this is a big time solution to anything, it is just a thought.

Some milestone notes:

  • Marcus Tyus is 11 points away from 700 career points
  • Mike Rostampour is 18 rebounds away from having the 2nd most rebounds since transition
    1. Matt Hagerbaumer – 401
    2. John Karhoff – 384
    3. Mike Rostampour – 366
  • Marcus Tyus is 4 steals away from having the 3rd most steals since transition
    1. CJ Carter – 128
    2. Devin Patterson – 90
    3. Caleb Steffensmeier – 73
    4. Marcus Tyus – 69
    5. Justin Simmons – 69
  • Tre’Shawn Thurman is 22 points away from having the 2nd most points in a season by a freshman since transition
    1. CJ Carter – 303
    2. Marcus Tyus – 185
    3. Tre’Shawn Thurman – 163
  • Tre’Shawn Thurman is 3 rebounds away from having the most in a season by a freshman since transition
    1. CJ Carter – 105
    2. Tre’Shawn Thurman – 102