UNO Mavericks

Can the Mavericks improve on 5 Summit League wins?

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Sometimes I find preseason predictions pointless, other than starting a conversation about the upcoming season or letting people know what could potentially be the biggest games of the year, there is not really much of a point to it.

I mainly find them useless because of the methodology in ranking teams.  Many seem to just copy and past the standings of last year, and then make a small edit if a team had a high amount of turnover from last season’s roster.  But I came up with a plan to do this for the Summit League.  I was reading some preseason predictions for the Big 10 football season which was done by a bunch of ESPN writers.  Some made good points but they all had to come up with a record for each team, and the math did not always make sense.  One clown had Ohio State going 12-0 with a 8-0 Big Ten record and Michigan State going 11-1, and also with a 8-0 Big Ten record.  Seriously, how drunk and lazy and/or bad at math was that guy?  Or some guys would have two teams going 8-0 in conference, a couple going 0-8, and everyone else going 5-3.  The math didn’t add up and they were telling you that these teams would win these amount of games because they are Skeletor and they said so.

So I came up with a plan.  I would go through the Summit League conference schedule and assign wins and losses over the course of a number of weeks.  At first it was just: South Dakota State is a better team than Denver, so win goes to the Jackrabbits.  Then later, I would look at the difficulty of each team’s conference schedule.  Obviously, everyone plays each other twice, but there are some things that stick out; like how Denver is the only team with the highway to the danger zone in playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State in back to back games.  Or how South Dakota and Oral Roberts are the only two Summit League teams without three straight games on the road in conference play.  Then things like Omaha playing on the road against someone on a Thursday, as road games on Thursdays appear to be difficult for most teams.  Actually road games are pretty difficult for anyone.  Then I would go through the schedule again and consider some teams’ strengths versus their opponents weaknesses.  Like how teams better be good at three point shooting against South Dakota as they forced teams to take the most threes with their defense…and other things.

But I assigned wins and losses to each game, and did it several times considering different factors.  Then I plain and simple would add up each team’s wins and losses to see who had the most after going through it about 15 times.  Is it perfect?  No.  Is it better than just saying South Dakota State will go 15-1 in conference because of Jesus?  Probably.

Really, after going through all of this; I really do not see much separation between many of the teams.  South Dakota State seems like a clear cut favorite.  Then North Dakota State seems like they are 2nd best, but they really should not be as comfortable as one would think.  Then Oral Roberts-Omaha-IPFW-IUPUI-South Dakota appear to be in a fight for spots 3 to 7 with Denver and Western Illinois sitting at 8 and 9; but Denver is a difficult place to play; and Western Illinois, while not great last year, they do return basically everything.

So much of the 3 to 9 in the Summit League appears to come down to:

  • Who can stay healthy?
  • Who can win on the road?
  • Who can pick up a win against South Dakota State and North Dakota State?

But for the sake of length, I am going to just post about Omaha to get started and why they should win more games than their 5-11 record last season.  Then I will come out with the rest of the Summit League later.

Omaha

Range of wins:  7 to 11 wins

Boldest Predictions:  Will pick up win against North Dakota State at home, will sweep South Dakota

Clearly, I am biased in how well I think the Mavs could do this season.  The Mavericks finished 5-11, but they had 4 conference losses decided by one or two possessions.  I know it does not work this way, but the Mavericks could have finished 8-8 or 9-7 in the Summit League had just a couple more things gone their way.  There is also more to play for with the Mavericks this season, and they should have a slightly stronger home court advantage with their new arena being right on campus. The attendance for the Mavericks has risen each season since transition, and people in town are starting to take them more serious.  2012-2013 was probably the most fun season to watch, but Omahans did not seem to even notice.  UNO Men’s Basketball was that new television show that had some good looking commercials that got you interested; but it was pitted in the same time slot as Breaking Bad in it’s prime and Sunday Night Football.   Justin Simmons had some of the most exciting dunks you could possibly witness; but Doug McDermott was in the middle of one of the greatest careers in Creighton and NCAA history; and Tim Miles was bringing a personality to the Huskers.  Omahans were in the mode of thinking they’d like to go to a Mavs game, but never fully pulled the trigger.  A few years later:  Creighton is down and Nebraska is too young for locals to know what is happening.  UNO has a brand new arena, in a fun part of town, some local guys on the roster that can make some noise, and six seniors to help start the new era of the program.

The Mavericks also have a pretty good way to start conference play with Western Illinois and IUPUI at home.  2013-2014 started @ Western Illinois, @ North Dakota State, @ South Dakota State; and 2012-2013 was @ North Dakota State, @ South Dakota State, and then a month conference break before they had South Dakota and Kansas City at home before going back on the road against very good IPFW and Oakland teams.  Last year the Mavs started on the road @ South Dakota and Western Illinois, and then came back home for North Dakota State and South Dakota State, before going back on the road against Oral Roberts.  The Mavs are finally not being welcomed to the Summit League with the middle finger jammed in front of their face, so hopefully they can start league play with some momentum.  The most difficult part of the conference schedule is going to be three straight road games at Denver, and the Mavericks yet to have a good game in the state of Colorado; then at Oral Roberts which is one of the toughest places to play in the Summit League; and then at South Dakota State who is the preseason favorite in the league and swept the Mavs last season by margins of 19 and 22 points.

As far as what is returning to the Mavericks: they lost Mike Rostampour and CJ Carter, but they are returning 61% of their scoring; which is the 4th highest in the league.  Marcus Tyus and Devin Patterson as a returning back court is arguably one of the top 3 back courts in the league.  Jake White is hopefully healthy enough to give significant minutes when the conference season turns around, he is tied with his fellow teammate Tre’Shawn Thurman as the 2nd leading returning rebounder in the league.  Randy Reed and Tim Smallwood should hopefully finally have roles edged out to really help this team improve.  Lack of depth was an issue for this team last season, but newcomers Zach Pirog, JT Gibson, and Tra-Deon Hollins sound as if they can really help the Mavericks improve on some of the weaknesses the Mavs had in 2014-2015, and add some needed depth to this team.  This team can go big, it can go small, it has adaptable lineups that can go up against anyone in the Summit.

From what I could tell, the preseason predictions biggest concerns with the Mavericks are that they cannot make up for the loss of Mike Rostampour and CJ Carter.  Okay, everyone loses someone in college athletics, but should we really be concerned about losing two guys that were not recruited to ever play in a Summit League conference tournament?  So really, why are people so hard on them for losing Rostampour and Carter, but no one is hard on IPFW for losing Steve Forbes and Joe Edwards; or South Dakota for losing Tyler Larson and Brandon Bos; or Oral Roberts for losing half of their team?  Please don’t take this as a Rostampour and Carter Were Not Unimportant thought… The Mavs would not be the same without them.  The point is, it does not seem like the Mavericks are asking as much out of their newcomers and returning players as much as other teams.  They are asking Jake White to be healthy enough to score 2-4 more points and grab a couple more rebounds, which I realize is easier said than done; Tre’Shawn Thurman to continue to improve; Tyus and Patterson to be more consistent; and Reed and Smallwood work more on their roles that they established toward the end of last season.  Other than North Dakota State and South Dakota State, everyone else appears to be asking guys to come in and be stars or huge impacts right away.  One thing that does scare me about Omaha finishing in the top half of the conference is the injury to Marcus Tyus.  He’s coming off ACL surgery that he injured in February.  Being ready in full form throughout November, December, and January just seems like a lot to look for at this point.

Who is going to start for the Mavs?

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Hip hip hooray, it’s the annual: Who the Heck is Going to be in the Starting Line Up this Season post

I was listening to the Summit League media day, it sounded as if Derrin Hansen was not 125% sure of who to start on his team, and it is kind of fun to sit around and speculate stuff for people so here we go.  If millions of people can sit at their computers dressed like a 7 foot tall puppy and speculate as to why Mark Hamill is not on the new Star Wars poster, then I can sit on the internet decked out in UNO Mavs gear and speculate who is going to start for the Mavericks and who will be the first guys off the bench.

One can safely assume that Devin Patterson and Tre’Shawn Thurman will be back in the starting line up.  One could also assume that Marcus Tyus will be in the starting five as well, but he ended the season early on a knee injury in 2014-2015.  It has been put out there that Tyus is doing fine in his recovery, and I am sure he is, but remember when Jake White got hurt in his junior season and we kept being told that he would be back next game because he was doing fine?  I am sure that Tyus will be in the starting line up, but maybe not at first.  We will see how his knees is actually doing in a few weeks.

So that leaves two spots open for starters to replace Mike Rostampour and CJ Carter.

Is it safe to assume that Jake White will fill in Rostampour’s spot?  White started in 3 games in his junior season as a Maverick.  He averaged 6.3 points per game in those three starts, and 8.3 rebounds.  He is probably the obvious choice over sophomore Daniel Meyer and freshman Zach Pirog.

What becomes a more difficult choice for Hansen and staff will be filling in the void left by CJ Carter, one of the top scorers in school history.  The leading candidates at this point appear to be Tim Smallwood, Tra-Deon Hollins, Randy Reed, or JT Gibson.

I was kind of hard on Smallwood and Reed last season.  It’s not that I thought they were bad players, I just felt that UNO was not entirely sure how to use them for most of the season and did not have well defined roles for either of them for a majority of the year.  I was unsure about them as most of you would be if there was a new movie coming out featuring Adam Sandler and Nicholas Cage.  Over a ten game stretch, Smallwood had 3 DNPs, and was 0-10 from three point land.  I felt that Reed’s junior year was up and down.  One game he was getting 20 minutes, then the next game he was getting 2 minutes, and then a week from then he was getting a DNP.  It just seemed like it was difficult for either of them to get any rhythm going.  I would love a world where Smallwood is hitting three 3s a game and Reed is getting a monstrous dunk every other play.  That world might actually have Luke Skywalker on a Star Wars poster.

Then Marcus Tyus went down with an injury and missed the last 6 games of the season, and these two guys became the twist at the end of an independent film.  Smallwood was put into the starting line up, and I thought to my self: oh great, the guy who hasn’t had it in 2015 is getting the starting spot.  When Smallwood started getting more minutes, I realized how good of a defender he was.  He was not racking up a bunch of steals or blocks, but he was disrupting opposing players shots and passes, and he was a big reason why the Mavericks ended the season on a 3 game winning streak.  I grew super proud of his work on the defensive end in those last 6 games.  His 5-of-7 from downtown at IUPUI was a big factor for what helped the Mavericks hold on for a overtime win.  A statistic that surprised me when I saw the final results was that UNO finished 8th in the Summit League in 3 point field goal percentage last season.  Whether Smallwood is going to start or be one of the first guys off the bench, he has to help improve the team’s 3 point shooting.  If he can get his 26% 3 point shooting up to the 33% range, he can be a huge impact on his team.  The Mavs are 3-1 when Smallwood hits two threes or more…

Going into 2015, Smallwood has scored in 7 straight appearances.
Going into 2015, Smallwood has scored in 7 straight appearances.  How does Paul Miller tie his shoes?  Photo by Mark Kuhlmann

Due to life, my wife was not able to get to many games last season.  She was able to attend Oral Roberts at the Ralston Arena.  When Randy Reed came onto the court, my wife asked me who this guy was.  I read off his resume to her, and we watched on.  Reed was the high energy guy off the bench that the Mavericks needed that game.  He had clutch defensive plays to keep the game close, blocked some shots, altered even more shots, and really disrupted the Oral Roberts’ rhythm.  Every time the Mavs were on defense and Randy Reed was on the court, the Mavs fans were completely locked in.  We all wanted to see Reed take his game to the next level that night.  Like, who cares if they have Obi Emegano?  We’ve got Randy Reed on defense!  You have to like Reed coming off the bench though, since he can really guard the 4 and the 3.  With the much of the Summit League going to small ball, teams will really have a difficult time going up against Tre’Shawn Thurman and Randy Reed at the 4 for 40 minutes if they really want to play small ball against the Mavericks.  If they want to play big, the Mavs can go with Reed at the 3 and either Meyer, Pirog, Thurman, or White at the 4 and 5.

Reed can be one of the most excited Mavs to watch.
Reed can be one of the most excited Mavs to watch.  Photo by Mark Kuhlmann

Then there is Tra-Deon Hollins.  Get excited for this kid.  He adds a lot to this team, and he brings a lot to the areas that the Mavericks were missing last season.  He can defend, he can pass, he can score, he can rebound, and he can hit threes.  I would not be shocked if he got into foul trouble (along with other guards) early on in the season with the rule changes in college basketball, but hopefully everyone can adjust to everything fairly quickly.  If Hollins does not start and he is used as the high energy bench guy, he should definitely be on the court in crunch time in most situations.  It seems to take junior college players a little while to really define their role on a team, unless they are going to a 0-30 team that had no scoring before and they averaged 25 a game in junior college, then they probably know they will be taking a large quantity of shots.  Hollins knows what the Mavericks were missing last year though, so hopefully it does not take him long to find his niche.

The Mavericks and some local media sound to be pretty excited about J.T. Gibson as part of future for the Mavs.  Gibson was the player of the year for the state of Minnesota last year, and there are several Minnesotans that think bigger schools made a mistake by not recruiting Gibson.  Sounds like this other guy named Tre’Shawn that we know.  I have doubt that Gibson will start right off the bat for the Mavericks, but maybe he will as the season goes on and he establishes himself.  He would really have to impress coaches and set himself apart from teammates as there are so many upperclassmen guards on the team.  Apparently, Gibson is completely capable of playing the both guard positions.

Either way, the Mavericks should at least know who their top 8 guys are at this point.  They probably even have a good idea what their best line ups are, which is not something every team in the Summit League has figured out yet.

 

 

I had some time, so I came up with a Summit League Super Team

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The Summit League preseason team came out last week, and it was pretty fair.  It is actually really difficult to come up with a 1st and 2nd Team list of picks, especially in a guard heavy league and you are a fan that wants to see the first team be a traditional line up with 2 post players, a wing player, and 2 guards.

I was listening to the recordings from the Summit League Media Day yesterday and was happy that Scott Nagy basically called preseason teams pointless.  Last year no one predicted that his players Deondre Parks and George Marshall would be all league picks, and it is basically because no one knows how the newcomers are going to do at this point.  Or if someone like Tyler Larson is going to see a huge improvement in play.

IUPUI’s transfers Nick Osborne and Darell Combs could be better than AJ Jacobson and Garett Covington for all we know.  Or IPFWs redshirt freshman John Konchar could be a better player than Jake Bittle.  We have to wait and find out.  Preseason picks are basically made to make us even more excited for the college basketball season.

So I wanted to do something (that I thought) that would be fun and create a Summit League Super Team…  This was nothing more than merely fun and to verify my lunacy…maybe to show how much time I have on my hands with my wife busy studying and working toward her PhD.

Imagine there is a tournament with the best players from each conference each year at the end of every season.  There can be a power conference tournament and a mid-major tournament if you are really scared about this, but it is make believe, so get over it.  So, each conference has to put together a 12 man roster of their best players from the conference, and you can have three players that can be reserves in case any of the 12 get injured.  They can be in any year of eligibility, but they must have been eligible in the 2015-2016 season in this case.  One wrinkle in the roster is that you have to have at least one player from each team on the 15 man roster.

So let’s pick someone from each team.

Denver – Nate Engesser – 6’3″ Sr

  • 2nd best field goal percentage (51.4%), free throw percentage (82.9%) of any player returning to the Summit
  • 4th highest amount of 3 point field goal percentage (42.9%) of any player returning

IPFW – Mo Evans – 6’0″ Jr

  • Ranks 3rd in Assists Per Game (3.3) of returning players

IUPUI – Marcellus Barksdale – 6’5″ Sr

  • Tied for 2nd highest steals per game average (1.7) of any player returning to the Summit League
  • Played 4 different positions for the Jaguars in 2014-2015
  • Ranks 4th in free throws attempted per game for any returning player

NDSU – AJ Jacobson – 6’6″ So

  • 4th highest free throw percentage (82%) for any player returning
  • 18 games of scoring in double figures

Omaha – Devin Patterson – 5’11” Sr

  • One magazine voted him as preseason defensive player of the year
  • Summit League leader in steals per game for last 2 years
  • 2nd highest Assists Per Game (3.9) of any returning player
  • Ranks 3rd in free throws attempted per game for any returning player

ORU – Obi Emegano – 6’3″ Sr

  • Voted Preseason Player of the Year
  • Most points per game (18.3) of any returning player to the Summit League
  • Tied for 2nd highest steals per game average (1.7) of any player returning to the Summit League
  • Scored in double figures in 28 games in 2014-2015

USD – Tre Burnette – 6’5″ Sr

  • Leading rebounder (5.9/game) for returning Summit League players
  • Had 4 double doubles in 2014-2015
  • Averaged 12.3 points per game in the month of February 

SDSU – Deondre Parks – 6’1″ Sr

  • 3rd highest points per game average (14.1) for any returning Summit League player
  • 2nd most 3 point field goals made (69) of any returning player to the Summit League
  • Scored in double figures in 27 games in 2014-2015

WIU – Garret Govington – 6’5″ Jr

  • 2nd highest points per game average (15.5) for any returning player 
  • 4th highest amount of three point field goals made (63) for any returning player to the Summit League
  • 3rd highest free throw percentage (82.8%) for any returning player
  • 2nd most free throws attempted per game for any returning player

Okay…okay…the first thing I think when I look at this finished roster is that the team is small.  We are going to need some height on this roster to compete against the other conferences.  We cannot reasonably take this team to a tournament like this with Barksdale, Burnette, and Jacobson as our post game.  How about we throw in candidates to fill out the roster.

Denver – Marcus Byrd

IPFW – Joe Reed, DeAngelo Stewart

IUPUI – Mason Archie, Darell Combs, Nick Osborne

NDSU – Kory Brown, Carlin Dupree, Chris Kading, Dexter Werner

Omaha – Tre’Shawn Thurman, Marcus Tyus, Jake White

USD – Casey Kasperbauer, Trey Norris

SDSU – Jake Bittle, George Marshall, Reed Tellinghuisen

WIU – JC Fuller, Jabari Sandifer

So we have to pick six out of these twenty guys, which is not easy.  How about we address the post player void first and pick three post players from the list.  Am I too bias to throw in Jake White and Tre’Shawn Thurman right off the bat?  Are Byrd or Kading better players than either of them?  The jury is out on Byrd since he plays in such a slow paced offense.  Kading apparently had 3 surgeries since the basketball season ended.  Osborne has yet to play a game in the Summit, and we are just going off of the He Played Alright in a Slightly Bigger Conference So He Has to be Pretty Good With a Year Off and Now Into a Smaller Conference card.

I like Reed though, he’s going to go from being the ‘Dons 5th option to being their 2nd or 3rd option.  He can step back and hit the three, even though he is not going to do it a lot.  He also played very well when Steve Forbes was hurt for a few games.  Okay, we are adding Reed and Thurman for sure.  So White or Kading…I know Kading did not score a bunch of points in 2014-2015, but he did not need to.  He led the Summit League in blocks per game season, and this team needs rim protection.  With Thurman and Burnette on the team, the team will have to the two leading returning rebounders in the Summit League, so we are somewhat covered there.  I think I got to take Kading on this one.  But crap, what about Dexter Werner?  He was probably actually the most important member of the Bison last season not named Alexander or Jacobson.  You look at Werner and you think he is just going to get rebounds and put backs, but that is not true.  He gets the ball at the top of the lane and drives it to the basket when he wants.  He also has some pretty spectacular spin moves that put a number of Summit League guards to shame.  I know he is undersized, but I think we have to go Werner, especially considering the injuries to Kading and White.

So we have Werner, Thurman, and Reed on the roster.  We are up to twelve.

G Marcellus Barksdale – 6’5″ Sr

G Tre Burnette – 6’5″ Sr

G Garrett Covington – 6’5″ Jr

G Obi Emegano – 6’3″ Sr

G Nate Engesser – 6’3″ Sr

G Mo Evans – 6’0″ Jr

F AJ Jacobson – 6’6″ So

G Devin Patterson – 5’11” Sr

G Deondre Parks – 6’1″ Sr

F Joe Reed – 6’8″ Sr

F Tre’Shawn Thurman – 6’7″ So

F Dexter Werner – 6’6″ Jr

This team has two very good point guards in Devin Patterson and Mo Evans, but they both can be a little fast.  We might need a guy to say “SLOW DOWN!!!”  The guy for that is Jake Bittle.  It is not like Bittle is slow, but if you ever watch a Jackrabbits game, Bittle is the man to run the half court offense.  He holds the ball at the top of the key and then Parks and Marshall work to get open.  He is the quarterback and they are the wide receivers.

I feel like we are one post player away.  I know I had Kading and White as the leading candidates before, but I want to go with IUPUI’s Nick Osborne on this one.  He is a transfer, sure, but there are high expectations around him for the Jags.  Maybe not as much as Cody Larson had when he transferred to South Dakota State from Florida, but there are high expectations for him.  I am not sure if he is going to be a great player in the Summit League, or better than White or Kading, but damn it I want to take the gamble here.

So this team has some rebounding and rim protection, ball handling and passing, three point shooting, and perimeter defense.  I think we might have to go with George Marshall here.  He is probably not the most important player on his team, but he is highly needed on what should be the best team in the Summit League in 2015-2016.

I don’t know how this team would do in a tournament like this, because I already wasted enough time make this, so it is not like I’m going to go waste even more by making an Super WAC Team.  It is probably not even the top 15 guys in the conference, but it would be an extremely competitive team.

supert

 

Here is a change of pace and the All Summit Get Ready for Terrible Puns and Poor Jokes Team

Thomas Neff – Denver

ex:  Thomas has had Eneff

Paul, Dylan, and Trey Miller – North Dakota State

ex: It’s Miller Time.

Expect this to get incredibly annoying.

Dan Jech – South Dakota

ex:  Dan with the ReJechtion!

Tyler Flack – South Dakota

ex:  Tyler takes no Flack!

Deondre Parks – South Dakota State

ex:  Deondre Parks himself on the bench.

 

Just some haphazard notes listening to the Summit League Media Day

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  • Joe Scott knows his team is young and the Pioneers are a work in progress, but he is preaching maturity to his team.
  • Jon Coffman is pretty damn excited about college basketball and his team.
    • Redshirt Freshman John Konchar has apparently put on a ton of muscle, and the ‘Dons are really excited about him and are more prepared to go small ball this year in the Summit
    • Brent Calhoun is expected to make a big jump for the ‘Dons, he has lost a bunch of weight and is in the best shape of his life.
    • I have realized that after an entire season that I have been spelling “Mastodons” incorrectly.
  • Jason Gardner is excited about this program, and thinks his staff will be more comfortable working together this year.  He has gained a large amount of respect for the Summit League.
    • In his opinion, Mason Archie is his team’s best defender and wants to defend the other team’s best player.
    • Marcellus Barksdale had to play four different positions in just about every single game for the Jaguars, he will not have to do that this year and expects Barksdale to benefit from not having to playing too many different roles.
    • Barksdale and Archie have both graduated already, and set a great example for the team.
    • His 4 transfers are really going to help this team.
    • The new arena has really helped the Jaguars in recruiting.
  • Dave Richman acknowledges that his team has 11 of his 15 guys as freshman and sophomores, but they are a deeper and more talented team than last year.
    • Chris Kading had 3 surgeries in the off season, will probably miss the first couple games of the regular season.
    • Lawrence Alexander carried the Bison on his back, he was the winningst most player in Bison history, it is not going to be easy to replace him.  They will have to replace him by committee.
    • The Bison ended up 12-4 in the league, but many of their games were won by just a possession.
  • Derrin Hansen (and Brittany Lange) is excited about the new arena, it has been a huge asset to the program, and they know it will help them catch up to the rest of the league in the next few years.  Not to mention it is extremely huge for the community.
    • Hansen is expecting more productivity from Tim Smallwood, Hansen is unclear if Smallwood will start or come off the bench yet.  Smallwood has a much better feel for the game right now.  He was a huge help when Marcus Tyus missed the last 6 games of the season.
    • Devin Patterson has become better in his leadership role.
    • Marcus Tyus is coming off his knee injury very well.
    • Jake White was only healthy for 2 or 3 games last year, he can have a big year if he is healthy.
    • Randy Reed is going to have a big role this year.
    • The players UNO has brought in bring in a winning culture, with all of them playing in their state championship games.  Zach Jackson’s team won the state championship.
    • Hansen thinks his new guys can be immediate impacts for his program, but it sounds like minutes may be an issue at this point.
  • Scott Sutton says he is excited and optimistic, but he also sounds like he wants to skip the morning and get straight to lunch.  He likes his new players, he knows there will be growing pains, but it is a tough group of guys that should be ready by the conference schedule.  Their non-conference schedule should really help prepare the Golden Eagles for the Summit League.
    • Obi Emegano and Brandon Conley have both been injured throughout the summer and had shoulder surgeries, but are doing very well at this point.  The staff is doing the best that they can to protect them.
    • Sutton thinks the rule changes in college basketball are going to benefit a guy like Emegano the most.  He already led the league last year in free throws attempted per game and he should get even more attempts at the line this season.  Sutton also likes how his team plays with a 30 second shot clock.
    • Sutton really really likes Jalen Bradley, and will have a hard time keeping him out of the lineup.  Bradley got to play a lot on the team’s summer trip, where the team got to play with a 24 second shot clock.
    • Sutton could have a year where he is starting a couple freshmen.  AJ Owens is their post player, but not as consistent as they would like him to be.  Owens could have the biggest jump this year in the league.
  • Craig Smith sounds like he came to party. He thinks it is going to be a heck of a year for the Summit League, and his team will be a work in progress.  He is glad that his team set a foundation and a culture last year.  They lost a lot of scoring, so they have to figure out a way to score the ball.
    • Smith really does not know who is going to help take on the scoring yet, but Tre Burnette really caught on toward the end of the season.  Casey Kasperbauer is one of the best three point shooters he has ever coached.
    • The Coyotes have had a lot of injuries.  They have 17 players on the roster, but ended a practice with only 10 players recently.  It has been hard to get going and figure out lineups and who plays well together.
    • Dan Jech can score in a lot of different ways and is a great rebounder.  Smith sounds really excited about Jech.
    • Tyler Hagedorn has a great feel for the game and can do a lot of different things.
    • Tyler Borchers has been a great surprise for the Coyotes, he doesn’t look pretty with everything that he does, but he does great things.
  • Scott Nagy says his team has taken their time getting ready because of the great experience that they have at the guard position.  He thinks the Jackrabbits have a lot of depth, which is going to be needed in college basketball with the rule changes.
    • He points out that preseason awards mean nothing.  No one expected Deondre Parks and George Marshall to be all league picks last year.  Some transfers from IUPUI or on other teams could be big time players, and no one knows anything about them yet.
    • Jake Bittle and George Marshall both have nagging injuries, nothing that would keep them out, but they will be hurting after games.
    • Nagy thinks his team is smaller than he would like it to be.  They could even go very small with no true post player in some games.
    • Adam Dykman works extremely hard, and down the road will be a tremendous 4 man in the future.
    • The biggest question mark for the Jackrabbits is: how will they replace Cody Larson?  They are looking at 3 guys to replace him…Connor Devine, Ian Theisen, and Mike Daum.  He has no idea who will be their starting center at this point.
    • Nagy just seems displeased by rule changes, doesn’t see the need for them, but they have to play with them.  He doesn’t think the rule changes will affect how they play though.
  • Billy Wright feels his program is headed in the right direction.  His team has set a philosophy in how they want to recruit and compete.
    • Western Illinois returns 85% of their scoring.
    • His freshman are working hard to compete for starting spots and playing time.
    • Garret Covington has really worked hard to improve his rebounding
    • JC Fuller is one of the most underrated players in the league.
    • De’Angelo Brewster and Brandon Gilbeck will have big breakout years as freshmen.
    • The Summit League is close in talent, you are an injury or two away from going from the top to the bottom, or a recruit away from going from the bottom to the middle of the pack.

2015-2016 opponent preview: Game 10, Wyoming Cowboys

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Okay, I am skipping the Mavs home game against Simpson College.  It’s just…you know…

Wyoming

2014-2015 final record:  25-10

2014-2015 home record: 15-2

2014-2015 Post Season:  Lost to Northern Iowa in NCAA tournament in “2nd Round”…I still think it’s the first round, but whatever.

Final 2014-2015 RPI:  72

Random Stat:  Wyoming record vs Northern Colorado/Denver/Air Force/Nevada – 4-1.  UNO record vs Northern Colorado/Denver/Air Force/Nevada – 3-2

Let me start out by saying…I like the Mavs in this game.  I like them a lot, even despite the fact that the Mavs are 0-5 when playing a division one opponent in the Mountain time zone since the transition.  Their only win since transition was against Johnson & Wales in 2012.  The Mavs are going to have 5 chances this season to get a win in the hour behind region (Colorado, Northern Colorado, Montana State, Wyoming, Denver).  I think Grand Canyon University might be in the Mountain Time Zone this time of year as well, I am not sure.  Bite me Arizona.

By the way, I learned something about myself here.  I somehow naturally always first type “Cowboys” as “Coyboys”.  It’s not a slam if you see that around here, just my natural incompetence.

Before we go any further, let’s talk about what the Cowboys lost.

Ricky Grabau, a 6’2″ guard that averaged 9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, he shot 37% from three point range, made 61 threes in his senior season, and he was a 94% free throw shooter that got to the free throw line three times a game last year.

Derek Cooke, a 6’9″ forward that was an 8 and 6 guy and shot 72% from the field, and he also averaged a block and a steal per game in his senior season for the Cowboys.

Charles Hankerson, a 6’4″ wing player that averaged 7 points, 3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in his last season at Wyoming.  He also made 42 threes last season.

Matt Sellers, a 6’10 post player that only got 10 minutes per game, and he missed the last 18 games of the season.  He gave the Cowboys length though when he was available, and he had a 16 point and 8 rebound performance against Florida A&M while going 8 of 9 from the floor that game.

Oh, and then there is this other guy named Larry Nance, Jr.  6’9″ and 230 pounds, and he was a first round draft pick to the Los Angeles Lakers.  Nance averaged 16 and 7 his senior season, and also dished out 2.5 assists per game.  He also shot 51% from the floor and 78% from the free throw line.

Mitch Kupchak is excited about Larry Nance as anyone.
Mitch Kupchak is excited about Larry Nance as anyone.

I know losing some quality players, and only having one senior does not necessarily mean that the Cowboys are going to be terrible by any means.  But losing the main pieces of your roster is never a great thing.  What were your thoughts when That 70s Show lost Topher Grace and Ashton Kutcher?  Or when Scrubs lost every damn member of the cast as regular characters?  You immediately wrote off the show, right?  I am apparently one of the few people that stopped with 2 and a half Men when Charlie Sheen left the show, not that I was an avid watcher while he was on the show though.

It is very hard on mid-majors when they lose a NBA guy.  It is a lot to lose, and a lot to make up.  I know Creighton was no longer a mid-major when they lost Doug McDermott, but they essentially had a mid-major roster when they lost him; and they had a significant drop off.  The Bluejays struggled finding an identity after they lost Kyle Korver and lost to Nebraska in the NIT while Korver was draining 3s with the Sixers.  Wyoming is going to have 8 new players to mix into their lineup.  Even when Creighton lost Anthony Tolliver and Nate Funk, the team had a huge drop off in a weak year for the Missouri Valley.  The team was mixing Dane Watts with a couple junior college players and like 6 freshman.  Things were okay, but not great.

So if they lost some great talent, what do they have coming back?

Josh Adams is a 6’2″ senior guard that is the only returning Cowboy that averaged in double figures.  He averaged 12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 spg, and shot 44% from the field last season.  His season high was 27 points against ranked Boise State.  He has averaged 6 points per game and 36% from the field in five career games against Summit League opponents (Denver & South Dakota).  A player like this could really prepare new guards like Tra-Deon Hollins and JT Gibson for the Summit League.

A guy with a fun name to say: Jason McManamen is a 6’5″ junior that played in about 17 minutes per game last season and averaged 3.7 in each contest while shooting 40% from the field.  Probably his best all around game last season was when he had 5 points and 7 rebounds in a win over Montana State.

The last returning Cowboy to get significant minutes in 2014-2015 was Alan Herndon, a 6’9″ post player who is going to be a sophomore.  He averaged 3 points per game and 2.2 rebounds per game in his freshman season.  He was able to help the Cowboys pick up a win against some team called the Denver Pioneers in his freshman season with a 9 point and 6 rebound performance, perhaps helping out my stance that you need a decent offensive post game to beat the Pioneers, along with quick defensive guards.  We’ll get to that another day, probably.

Aside from these returning players, the Cowboys were able to pick up 2 three star freshman (per Rivals) who could be immediate impacts for Wyoming.  Their recruiting class is highlighted by Austin Conway from Aurora, Colorado.  He was rated a three star recruit and also held an offer from Indiana.  He appears to have some great handles.

Considering the Mavericks have a good chunk of their roster returning, and the Cowboys are not returning much; I really like the Mavs chances here.  I have questioned if the Mavericks can keep up their high pace on the road in the Rocky Mountain region, especially with a roster that hasn’t been extremely deep when they’ve played there.  Wyoming is actually at a higher elevation than Denver.  It is something that visiting teams need to be prepared for.  Can the UNO Biomechanics building prepare the Mavs for this?  Can they donate that?  I feel like I have seen elevation masks in there, or they were all playing Batman in there.  I’m sure it’s most likely science related stuff though, that program is crazy good.

Who has the best core of post players in the Summit League?

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So the Summit League is stacked with guards and wing players this season.  College Sports Madness recently came out with a All Summit League 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th team and 16 of the 20 players were guards, 17 if you count South Dakota State’s Reed Tellinghuisen as a guard.  The Summit League came out with their preseason 1st and 2nd teams yesterday, and 8 or the 10 players were guards.  The teams they selected are fair for the most part, though I do not agree with leaving Tre’Shawn Thurman off the list, but I get that I am biased.

Anyway, there are so many guards on this list, and that is because the Summit League is going to be a very guard heavy league this year.  So could one come up with a conclusion that who ever has the best post game is going to set themselves apart from the rest of the conference?  So who has the best post players in the conference?

For the sake of argument, I am going to reduce each team’s list to their top 4 post players, because realistically teams hardly ever use more than 4 post players in the Summit League.  Hell some players do not use more than two post players.

North Dakota State

Chris Kading, Dexter Werner, AJ Jacobson, and one of the other 3 players that will mix in.

I have kind of had North Dakota State as my team to win the conference this year, but I am growing more and more uncomfortable with that recently the more I am looking things up.  Not that I think they are in trouble or anything.  Anyway, it is pretty hard to argue that they do not have the best core of post players in the Summit League.  I know someone might look at Chris Kading and say he’s only a 5 points and 4 rebounds guy, but he takes smart shots, he led the Summit League in blocks per game, and he would routinely hold the other team’s best post player to a bad game.

Dexter Werner was the Sixth Man of the Year in the Summit League last year, and he completely deserved it.  He was a big time force that brought immediate energy to the Bison post game off of the bench, and he shot 51% from the field.  He was playing undersized most of the time, but he was still able to get 1 block per game, which is tied with the 2nd most for returning players to the league.

Dexter Werner was selected to the 2nd Team for the All Summit Preseason Predictions.
Dexter Werner was selected to the 2nd Team for the All Summit Preseason Predictions.

Then the Bison have AJ Jacobson, and while there is no official Summit League Freshman of the Year Award, I am pretty sure it would have been him last season.  He appears to be a popular choice for 1st Team All Summit this upcoming year, after coming off averaging 11.6 points per game and 4.2 rebounds, and many people think he is going to take a large load of the shots that Lawrence Alexander was taking.  He is probably more of a traditional 3, but he did quite well for the Bison at the 4 position, and the Bison can bring in Werner off the bench and slide Jacobson over to the 3, making for a big lineup.

It is kind of unclear who the 4th post player will be at this point for the Bison.  They had Nebraska-native, Spencer Eliason redshirting last season, and they are bringing in two 6’8″ freshmen that they appear to be pretty excited about.  With Kading and Werner, you kind of expect one of the two true freshman to redshirt though, right?

South Dakota

Eric Robertson, Tyler Flack, Tyler Hagedorn, Dan Jech

I admit that is pretty difficult to go on from here, so how about South Dakota?  The Coyotes might actually have the most talented post players, but there are some questions to it.  Can Tyler Flack bounce back from sitting out all of 2014-2015 with an injury, and does Craig Smith even like him?  Flack was averaging 8.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.5 bpg, and shooting 55% from the field as a sophomore in 21 minutes on a pretty bad South Dakota team.

Flack is back.
Flack is back.

Can Eric Robertson survive as a starter if Smith doesn’t feel comfortable with starting a true freshman?  Then there is two freshman, Tyler Hagedorn and Dan Jech.  Jech gives the Coyotes a post player and Hagedorn gives the team a stretch four.  The Coyotes were able to survive last season with 6’3″ Tyler Larson and 6’5″ Tre Burnette as their primary options in the post last season, so what is going to happen when Smith adds some height to their post game.  Oh yeah, and there is also Tre Burnette, who had the highest rebounding average of any player returning to the Summit League.

Omaha

Jake White, Tre’Shawn Thurman, Daniel Meyer, Zach Pirog (or Randy Reed)

It is kind of a bold move picking the Mavericks that high here.  Consider this though, no player 6’7″ or taller that is returning to the league averaged more points per game than Tre’Shawn Thurman last season.  Jake White is healthy apparently, while I cannot 100% verify this, but I am pretty sure he had limited minutes in his junior season due to injuries.  Even with as many injuries that he had in his junior season, he was probably the fastest post player in the league.  So you have to assume he will go from 20 minutes per game to 25-30, his field goal percentage should rise above 40% while he’s healthy, he can probably be a 10 and 8 guy.  10 and 8 should get you Honorable Mention in the Summit.

Could Jake White be the most underrated post player in the league?
Could Jake White be the most underrated post player in the league?

Daniel Meyer should be getting a minutes increase as well.  Statistically, he had about the same statistics that Dexter Werner had in his freshman season at North Dakota State, and he should receive an increased role (maybe even a Werner like role) with Mike Rostampour and Rylan Murry no longer on the team.  One game last year, I was sitting near Matt Hagerbaumer, you seriously need to take the opportunity to sit next to Hagerbaumer if you ever get that chance.  He’s constantly yelling support to younger players, and he was so excited about Thurman and Meyer as freshman.  He at one point said that they needed Meyer to be a banger down low and be the dirty work guy.  Basically, the Mavs need him to be Matt Hagerbaumer 2.0, and he is capable of being that.  Meyer apparently played very well on the team’s trip to Italy as well.

I am still unsure if Zach Pirog will redshirt.  Hansen kind of has a history of redshirting big players, and the team already has White, Thurman, and Meyer; but maybe Pirog is even better than advertised?  He should add immediate rim protection to the team, which would be extremely helpful, but how many minutes would be able to get this season?  Not to mention, there will probably be a lot teams playing 6’5″ guys at the 4 position for a decent chunk of minutes this season, so wouldn’t you want to play Randy Reed more at the 4 position this season; leaving a lot of the minutes at the 5 to White, Meyer, and even Thurman.  Just seems like minutes wise it would be a good idea to redshirt Pirog, but he is someone that can immediately help this team.

South Dakota State

Connor Devine, Ian Theisen, Michael Daum, Adam Dykman

There is a big gaping hole to make up in the loss of Cody Larson for the Jackrabbits, and it is unclear who will fill that role.  The Jackrabbits also grew comfortable playing Reed Tellinguisen at the 4 last season, as the team’s 5th best offensive player, they really couldn’t keep him off the floor, even if he was playing undersized at times.

You look at Devine and Theisen and you think two guys that don’t even combine for 5 points per game, but really they were playing behind Cody Larson and sharing that role of backup post player.  Then you realize that they both shot over 50 percent from the field, and they both had stretches over the season where they were making big plays.  It’s also not like Scott Nagy cannot develop guys at all.  Devine as a 40% free throw shooter might get left off the court down the stretch of the few close conference games the Jackrabbits will have.

The Jackrabbits also had Nebraska-native Michael Daum redshirting last season, who seemed like a pretty attractive recruit coming out of high school, so who knows how much he developed under the Jackrabbits staff.  The basketball fan in me says “oh wow this guy averaged 25 and 13 as a senior in high school,” but the Nebraskan in me says “I have never even heard of Kimball, how could anyone be good at basketball from there.”  The Mavericks offered him a scholarship though, he also held offers from South Dakota, Wyoming, North Dakota, and others, so non-Nebraskans see something in him.

Then there is even another Nebraska-native on the team, 6’7″ Adam Dykman.  I am pretty nervous about Dykman, I constantly saw his name in the paper for big games, and I know a few guys hugely into Nebraska high school basketball that were upset that UNO or Nebraska did not give an offer to this kid.  I am afraid he’s psycho angry about that.

With such a strong group of starting guards, I don’t think it’s going to come down to the post players for the Jackrabbits.  The show Scrubs had a great core of cast with JD, Turk, Kelso, Elliot, and Dr. Cox, would the show have been successful if they threw in a bunch of episodes centered around Ted and made a three episode story arch about Ted?  Many people would have turned away.  I actually would have watched the crap out of that.  So how many times are you going to hear a ESPN3 commentator say: The Jackrabbits are having a great night with Marshall, Bittle, Parks, and Tellinghuisen knocking down all these outside shots and beating their defenders to the rim; but I really think they need to get the ball into Devine to work his magic on Dexter Werner?  Probably never.

IUPUI

Nick Osborne, Matt O’Leary, Evan Hall, and Noah Thomas

Nick Osborne and Matt O’Leary were decent players at Loyola and will now have increased roles with the Jaguars.  Evan Hall and Noah Thomas are both true freshman, so the hard part for the Jags is throwing in an entirely new core of post players into their lineup.  Hall is a 6’7″ freshman that was rated as a 3 star recruit and had offers from Eastern Kentucky, Western Kentucky, and Lipscomb out of high school.  Hall is a 6’9 and 235 post from the state of Indiana that averaged a double-double in his senior season.  The Jaguars also survived last year on having guards playing as post players, so it’s not like they cannot win without a post game at all.  Essentially, the team decided that they didn’t like the cast of the last season of the Power Rangers and went with entirely new ranger squad, and they feel pretty comfortable about how the new cast will go.  How many other places are you going to find a Power Rangers reference talking about sports?  Actually, I don’t think this my first time on here.

IPFW

Joe Reed, Brent Calhoun, Andrew Poulter, Racine Talla

You’ve got to feel confident in a 6’8″ guy like Joe Reed that has shot about 55% for his career.  Like Jake White and Tre’Shawn Thurman getting more shots because of departures, you’ve got to think that Reed’s shot attempts will go up with the loss of Steve Forbes.  Reed is another guy with potential to be a 10 and 8 guy.  His other three front court teammates are kind of question marks.

I’ve seen people bragging up Andrew Poulter, and I do not get it.  He was a 7 and 5 guy as a sophomore at a junior college, and he also shot 47% from the field.  I watched a video of him in high school working on some 1 on 1 moves, he was looking like an All American but he’s 6’11” and 275 going up 1 on 1 against some 6’5″ 175 pound guy.  Granted, it is high school and I doubt there were too many guys near his size to work out with, but still, I don’t see how his 1 on 1 skills will ever come into play from the Summit.  Then there is sophomore Racine Talla who is 6’9″ but hasn’t played a game of basketball in 3 years.  It just seems like a gamble to take them seriously at this point.  Maybe Jon Coffman realizes how to use them appropriately though, we will clearly have to wait and see.  And many people have them picked as the 4th best team in the conference, so maybe I am just a moron.  95% chance that I am a moron.

Oral Roberts

Brandon Conley, Tre Vance, AJ Owens, and Darian Harris

Did you know this team led the Summit League in blocks per game last season?  They essentially did not need production offensively from their post players as they had Obi Emegano, Kory Billbury, and Bobby Word to take on a bulk of the scoring, so they really just needed their post players to play defense and make great outlet passes.  I don’t think people are realizing how important Denell Henderson was to this team.  None of these players are huge scoring threats, and a lot of people are high on Owens even though he basically only got minutes when the Golden Eagles were getting killed last season.  He shot 40% from the field, and he was basically playing against other teams’ 3rd string most of the time.  Darian Harris also seems like he should be a shooting guard, but the ORU had to use him at the 4 position several times last season due to lack of a post.

I am nervous for Scott Sutton this season, but not in a way that I think he’s going to get fired or anything.  I really do not think he has a great roster this season, but it is Sutton and Obi Emegano.  I love hearing rumors every off season about schools looking at Sutton as a head coaching hire, but we may not get that this April and May.  If Sutton can come in top three of the league this season, I really think he deserves coach of the year, but I don’t think he’ll get it.

Denver

Marcus Byrd, Daniel Amigo, Christian Mackey, and 1 of 2 freshman.

I am scared for Denver this season.  A few have selected them to finish in last this season, CBS Sports rated them as the 3rd best team in the Summit League but it was pointless.  It is really hard to look at Denver and say they have the best players in anything, not because of a lack of talent, but because of the offense that Joe Scott runs.  Marcus Byrd averaged 8.5 points per game as a junior, 8.5 at Denver is like averaging 13 any place else.  Byrd can also step out and take the three, he actually has the highest three point field goal percentage of any player returning to the Summit League this season, and he makes nearly 2 threes a game.

Daniel Amigo was also giving the Pioneers pretty good minutes as a freshman, but his season ended early due to injury.  The Pioneers also have a 6’7″ freshman named Abiola Akintola from Australia, who was not widely recruited, but he averaged 17.8 ppg and 6 rebounds per game in the U18 Australian Junior Championships, whatever the heck that is.  I know there are a lot of question marks for international players, and it could be difficult to figure out if he is even the right fit for Denver, but it could be something amazing watching him develop.

Western Illinois

Tate Stensgaard, Jalen Chapman, Mike Miklusak, and the mystery man

All are average guys that on any other team in the Summit League would be role players, and really they are just role players for Western Illinois, but they give a lot of minutes to the Leathernecks when they are available.  They many lost the last 13 of 14 games of the season because they had no Stensgaard or Chapman for that time, but still, could they have made the difference.  The team has 4 freshman post players that will mix in.  I wonder how they will work out.

 

 

 

2015-2016 opponent preview: Game 9, Grand Canyon Lopes

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Grand Canyon

2014-2015 record:  17-15

2014-2015 WAC record: 8-6 (tied for 2nd in the WAC with UMKC)

2014-2015 non-conference home record:  8-6

2014-2015 final RPI ranking: 279

Best wins in 2014-2015:

Random Stat:  Both UNO and Grand Canyon lost at Chicago State and at UMKC.

2014-2015 post season:  75-70 loss to Northern Arizona in the CIT

Grand Canyon University…  Last season, on the first night of college basketball, I was reading through ESPN’s bottom line for all the basketball scores to my wife.  I tell her that Kentucky beat Grand Canyon by 40.  My wife, who knows more about college sports than most people immediately says “who the (expletive) is Grand Canyon, is that even a real school?”  About a month later we learned that one of her best friends from high school was enrolled in grad school at GCU.

At first glance, I am kind of scared of GCU as an opponent.  I am partially scared because they are in the middle of transition, and I feel like they could have added incentive for this game to beat a team that just finished transition; to show that they are ready for the next step.  I am also worried because they have Thunder Dan as their head coach, and they have Thunder Dan’s kid as one of their main players.  It’s just you know…Thunder Freakin’ Dan.  I really hope the Mavs are getting a return game with Grand Canyon in Omaha next season.  I know a handful of Suns fans that would go to a game just to see Thunder Dan, which I think is weird to go to a sporting event just to watch a coach, but whatever, I would pay money to go watch Phil Jackson take a nap at a Knicks game.  With possibly Thunder Dan and Brian Fish as coaches to see at Baxter Arena in 2016-2017, the Mavs could have a pretty fun home non-conference schedule next season, but I am not ready to look at 2016-2017 yet.  I am not ESPN wanting to discuss the 2019 NFL draft already with a half stock.

Grand Canyon has Thunder Dan signed until 2019.
Grand Canyon has Thunder Dan signed until 2019.

The Lopes have had a winning record since transitioning to Division 1, and they have been invited to the CIT two years in a row.  Looking up their schedule over the last 2 years, I immediately get angry and scream out “HOW THE HELL WERE THEY ABLE TO PLAY A CONFERENCE SCHEDULE IN THEIR FIRST YEAR, I THOUGHT THAT WASN’T ALLOWED!!!!”  It’s Thunder Dan, isn’t it?

The schedules that they have come out with each season have not been all that difficult since transitioning.  They are playing the WAC to load up their conference schedule, oh the WAC.  Their non-conference wins last season were against: Montana State (323), Florida A&M (350),  Illinois-Chicago (297), Bethune-Cookman (344), New Mexico (175), Abiline-Christian (326), and UC-Riverside (239).  So while they finished with a 17-15 record in 2014-2015, it does feel a little inflated, especially considering that all of those wins were at home.  It is not like the Mavs had a string of much more impressive wins last season, but I am just saying that GCU’s 17-15 record does not sound as impressive as it looks when you look at it as far as just win totals and a post season trip.

Seriously, how are they getting all of these games at home?  Is it because everyone wants to go to Phoenix in November and December?  The Lopes non-conference home schedule before Omaha gets there this season is: Portland State, Black Hills State, Alcorn State, Hampton, Central Michigan, and Southern.  Did they just look up an old Creighton non-conference schedule and copy and paste it?

Key losses:

Royce Woolridge- 6’3″:  10.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 46 fg%, 74 ft%, 32 3ptFG%

Daniel Alexander – 6’9″:  9.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 44fg%, 89 ft%

Jerome Garrison- 6’3″: 7.8 ppg, 3,3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 48fg%

Key returners:

DeWayne Russell- 5’11”, SR:  14.2 ppg, 3 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.4 spg, 41 fg%, 76 ft%, 14-32 3ptFG

Joshua Braun- 6’4″, SO:  11.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 46 fg%, 78 ft%, 38 3ptFG%

Ryan Majerle- 6’3″, SR:  7.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 44 fg%, 82 ft%, 38 3ptFG%

De’Andre Davis – 6’1″, SO:  5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 52 fg%

 

Aside from returning these four guys, the Lopes will get to add a couple graduate transfers to their team.  A 6’6″ forward from Saint Louis, Grandy Glaze, who sat out last season due to an injury.  Glaze averaged 3.8 ppg and 4.5 rpg for the Billikens while shooting 48% from the field.  There is also Grant White from Jacksonville state who is a 6’1″ guard that played in 13 games as a junior and averaged 3.6 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.0 apg for a team that went 12-19 and 5-11 in the Ohio Valley.  The Lopes will also have a 6’8″ graduate transfer from Coastal Carolina named Uros Ljeskovic who did not receive much playing time in his junior season at Coastal Carolina.  How in the hell is a transitioning school getting so many graduate transfers?  Does this have anything with them being a public university listed on the NASDAQ?  Actually they are a private school, but they a public…seriously this makes you want to shut down.  I claim unfair advantage.  It sounds like they figured out the cheat code to play as Goro against Mortal Kombat right now, that’s not fair, you have to play as Kano like the rest of us.  Damn it, I hate Kano.

The Lopes also have a transfer from Memphis named Dominic Magee, a 6’4 guard who was rated a 4 star athlete out of high school.  He picked transferring to GCU over LSU, and had offers to UCLA and Arizona out of high school.  He redshirted last year at Memphis and transferred at the semester, so I am unclear if he will be playing for the Lopes in the first semester of 2015-2016, or if he will have to wait until January.  This just sounds pretty scary.

Really, I do not think that the Lopes have much competent size on their team, so I really hope the Mavs can get Jake White and Tre’Shawn Thurman going in this one, and the Lopes were already one of the worst rebounding teams in Division 1 last season.  With the guards they have coming back, the graduate transfers coming in, and this Magee looking like he could be the greatest thing that the WAC has ever seen; it appears that this team is actually pretty stacked in the back court.  As much as I am sure the Lopes will have an added incentive to beat the team that just finished transition as a measuring stick for themselves, I seriously hope the Mavs will have added incentive to not lose to a team that is still in the transition stage they just got out of.

It does not really look as if this team has been too terribly tested in the last two years.  They did have receive spankings at the hands of Kentucky and Indiana last year, but I think those are games that transitioning teams go into their second year and just write off the second they read them on the schedule.  I don’t even want to look back at the scores of some of the Mavs games in year two of transition.  One thing that does make me feel slightly better about looking at the Lopes is the fact that they were swept by Chicago State last season.  Talk about the least interesting conference match up that God could ever come up with.  They did sweep Seattle though, damn it this is confusing.

 

2015-2016 opponent preview, Game 8: Missouri Tigers

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Missouri

2014-2015 record:  9-23

2014-2015 SEC record: 3-15 (last in the SEC)

2014-2015 final RPI ranking:  218

Random stat:  Derrin Hansen and the Mavs posted a 4-3 record against Kim Anderson and Central Missouri in the MIAA.

Best wins in 2014-2015:  vs Valparaiso (57), and vs LSU (65)

TV: SEC Network, 7pm

 

Let me start out by saying that I hate University of Missouri Athletics.  Every time I watched Nebraska play the Tigers in any sport, I found an unease and chill move down my spine like I was Batman trying to investigate a crime scene left by the Joker.  I sometimes find myself unable to change the channel when I turn on a Missouri sporting event and see that they are losing.  I was in a hotel in downtown Denver during softball season and I was the only person in the entire hotel bar watching Alabama beat Missouri in softball, actually I was probably the only person in Denver watching it.  I could sit here and say a lot of nasty things, but I do not really want to do that even though I would have the time of my life.

Anyway, after I get back to reality and think about Missouri Tigers basketball the only thing that comes to my mind is that they lost to UMKC to open up the season last year.  A friend of mine told me that he knows a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy that coaches for UMKC, or something like that.  So when I was checking basketball scores at the beginning of last season and saw that UMKC upset Missouri and texted my friend that I was proud to have a connection of six degrees of separation to someone involved with beating the Tigers; we both grew an agreement that the Missouri Tigers were done as a basketball program last season, and we were apparently right.

The Tigers finished 9-23 last season, but they did play what appeared to be a somewhat difficult non-conference schedule.  Try and wrap your head around the fact that UMKC beat Missouri, but Missouri beat Oral Roberts.  Try that one.  Then again a Missouri fan could say: how did the Mavericks beat Marquette and lose to Chicago State?  I know I have difficulties with it as well, but I know the Mavs were not fully healthy.

The Tigers are a young team with only one senior on the team, 6’10” Ryan Rosburg that averaged 3.3 ppg and 2.6 rpg in his junior season.

How about we go over the players that Missouri has lost.

 

Graduated

Keith Shamburger – 5’11”: 8.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, 38 FG%, 33 3ptFG%. 89 FT%

Keanu Post – 6’11”: 4.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 57 FG%

Transferred

Jonathan Williams (Gonzaga) 6’9″: 11.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 41 FG%, 34 3ptFG%, 62 FT%

Montaque Gill-Caesar (San Diego State) 6’6″: 9.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 36 FG%, 31 3ptFG%

Deuce Bello (East Tennessee State) 6’4″:  1.8 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 38 FG%

It is probably never good when your team loses guys named Keanu and Deuce.  Never.

Something that sticks out about Missouri is that they were virtually in the bottom half of division one in every statistical category last season, and on top of that they lost 3 of their top 4 scorers.  The Tigers ranked 321st in points per game as a team and 307th  in field goal percentage, so based on that it does not seem like the Mavs’ poor defense would be too much of an issue here.  Maybe it is a good thing they are losing those guys actually, but losing two young core players to transfer is never anything anyone brags about.

The Tigers were able to pick up the 55th best recruiting class in college basketball for whatever that is worth.  On top of what sounds like an okay recruiting class, Missouri is returning Wes Clark a 6’0″ junior that averaged 10 points per game along with 3.5 rpg and 3.1 apg.  The Tigers were able to pick up two junior college transfers, one that was a 6’2″ second team Junior College All American, and a 6’9″ player who was a 14 and 7 guy in junior college.

Wes Clark did miss the last 8 games of the 2014-2015 season.
Wes Clark did miss the last 8 games of the 2014-2015 season.

Just looking at the Missouri fan board, Tiger fans have many mixed emotions about their team.  Fans appear confident in Kim Anderson as a coach, but maybe not so much confidence riding on him as a recruiter.  I would assume fans found some confidence after upsets against Valpo and LSU.  Also Anderson has not taken over a dream situation for any coach.  As a fan base for Maverick basketball, it appears our fans are pretty optimistic moving forward, so it feels pretty good going up against a power conference opponent that has a fan base mumbling uncertainty.

Anderson had been an assistant at Missouri and Baylor before spending 12 solid seasons at D-2 Central Missouri
Anderson had been an assistant at Missouri and Baylor before spending 12 solid seasons at D-2 Central Missouri

With that in mind, you have to feel comfortable that the Mavericks can make this a competitive game, and maybe even pick up a win.  The Tigers do have a pretty difficult non-conference schedule with Xavier, Kansas State, Northwestern (or North Carolina), North Carolina State, and Illinois.  So it is entirely possible for a young team like Missouri to completely overlook a team like Omaha that was plagued with injuries the season before.

I know before I said that our best chance to pick up a win against a power conference team was Minnesota, but this may actually be a little more doable.   The big hope is that the Mavs will have a healthy back court of Devin Patterson and Marcus Tyus at this point in the season.  Patterson has averaged 16.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.6 spg, and shot 55% from the field in 5 career games against power conference teams, and Tyus has averaged 8.4 ppg and shot 52% from the field in nine games against power conference teams.  Also on top of that, Tre’Shawn Thurman averaged 8 ppg and 5.7 rpg and shot 52% in the three games against Marquette, Kansas State, and Nebraska last season.

 

The state of Nebraska basketball parlay bet

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So I love talking about college basketball any time of the year.  A buddy of mine finds it incredibly difficult to talk about college basketball until the month of October, which I fully understand and respect.  I am pretty sure he was talking about late October after the MLB has concluded, but this is what you get when you are not specific.  Last season we had a bet, a parlay bet if you will, based on the win totals of the division one men’s basketball teams for Nebraska, Creighton, and Omaha.  I am not completely well versed on all the gambling terms out there, but I think it is a parlay bet.  I love going to the casino and playing blackjack, but I seriously learned what a parlay bet was from watching “Silver Linings Playbook”.  Anyway, even though no one won last year, we fully intend on doing this bet again.

The idea is that we set an agreeable number set as a over/under figure for how many wins each team will have, but we will not include their conference tournaments or any potential post season tournaments.  If we think one of them will go 15-15, we will set the over/under on that team at 14.5 or 15.5.  Each of us then decide between them getting more than 14.5 wins or less than 14.5 wins.  We set a different prediction for each team, and in order for you to win, you have to get all three right.  We’re not betting tens of dollars on this, just a growler of beer at the winner’s choice of brewery.  It is very difficult for me to decide between Nebraska Brewing Company and Benson Brewery.  Nebraska Brewing would make sense though, because that this is about Nebraska.

Since each of the three teams under performed last season, neither of us came even close.  The world will break your heart ten ways to Sunday.  See what I did there?  Being that I had no faith in Creighton to do well last season, I had the under on them correctly, as we set the over/under on Creighton at 19.5, I believe.  Nebraska and UNO underperforming, kept me from getting a free growler from Benson Brewery though.  By the way, in the state of Nebraska it is apparently illegal to take an outside growler into a brewery and have them fill it.  My mother-in-law and sister-in-law each got me growlers for Christmas.  One was an Oregon Ducks growler and the other was to some brewery in the state of Washington.  I tried to take the Oregon Ducks growler in some place in Nebraska and was notified that Nebraska is one of two states to have this rule.  Denied.

Anyway, I am open to suggestions on to what to set the over/under on each team this season.  All three teams had trips to Europe, so you have got to be thinking some sort of improvements for each team.

Nebraska

It is almost a gut instinct to set the Huskers at a low win total.  They only had 13 wins in 2014-2015 and most preseason predictions have them finishing 13th in the Big 10 this upcoming season.  They lost Terran Petteway who is now with the Atlanta Hawks, and they have nine new players being thrown into the mix.

The good news for the Huskers is that they only have two true road non-conference games, and one of those games is in Omaha against Creighton.  They lost Petteway, but they still have Shavon Shields.  I never think it is great when your main scorer is a volume scorer like Petteway.  Your first option on offense last season shot 39% from the field, and now your main option on offense shot 44% from the field last season, those few more field goals can make a big difference, especially if your volume scorer is taking poor shots just for the sake of scoring points.  The bad news about Shields is that his field goal percentage has dropped in each of his 3 seasons as a Husker, but I feel like he was playing hurt for much of the 2014-2015 season, am I wrong?  I could be making that up, I thought I remember reading that.

The Huskers’ third option on offense, Walter Pitchford is also gone, and they should be look at this like it is a great thing.  Pitchford’s production dropped from his sophomore season to his junior season, and he did not even look like he was into it most games.  He just looked like a guy that was being forced to go to a chick flick with his wife, because the comic book movie you took her to had terrible dialogue.  He also just seemed unwilling to take the ball into the post and score, which is what you look for in a 6’10” player (not).  So two of your top three scorers shot less than 40% from the field, in a way, you should actually feel pretty good about replacing that with a Kansas transfer and a few highly touted freshman.  I still seriously need someone to explain to me how Pitchford is competing for a roster spot on a NBDL team and Mike Rostampour is not.

I think the Huskers can at least get 7 wins in their non-conference schedule.  Are they better than 7-11 in the Big 10?  As they are picked 13th to win the conference, many people do not think so.  Their season is really going to be dependent on how well their freshmen Glynn Watson and Ed Morrow can adjust to division one, but really we are in an age where most power conference teams are relying on a number for freshmen to step in right away.

I’m still not completely confident in the Huskers, I think we are going to have to set the over/under for the Huskers at 13.5.  I badly want the over on that though, but I understand there is some risk involved.

Creighton

The Bluejays finished 14-19 last season, and they lost 5 contributors from last year’s team, but it was a seriously awkward year for Creighton.  After losing 4 major contributors from 2013-2014, including Doug McDermott, Creighton was left in a bit of a mess.  They had a few injury issues that did not help them try to carve out a starting lineup, with only one player during the season starting in all of the team’s games.

Greg McDermott gets to play transfers Cole Huff (via Nevada) and Maurice Watson (via Boston University) this season, who were both double digit scorers at their previous schools.  These two should more than help replace some of what the team lost.  If anyone has been paying attention, Creighton has freshmen Khyri Thomas and Martin Krampelj sound ready to make an impact right away.  Both players averaged double digits in scoring on the team’s trip to Italy.

Anyway, it seems completely realistic for the Bluejays to improve on 14 wins this upcoming season, but by how much?  They do have two true road games against Oklahoma and Indiana in their non-conference schedule that will be incredibly difficult, and they also have the Huskers in Omaha which seems like an automatic win for the Bluejays anymore.  They also have a tough Arizona State team at home as well.  Every team in the Big East looks to be improving as well, as most of them were down last season, so with 31 games on the regular season schedule I am thinking of setting the over/under for Creighton at 17.5.  It is tough, but I want to take the under on this.

Omaha

A depressing 12 wins last season, I think we had the over/under last season at 16.5 and we both selected the over.  I opened up to you, and you judged me.  There were a number of injuries for the Mavericks, and some games that were lost in the final couple minutes, and the team is returning a lot so one could think the Mavericks will improve upon the 12 wins.  However, the Mavs have what appears to be a more difficult non-conference schedule this upcoming season.

Does this Omaha team remind anyone else of the 2004-2005 Phoenix Suns roster?  White-Amar’e, Thurman-Marion, Hollins-Johnson, Tyus-Richardson, Patterson-Nash?  I say that only ever watching one game of Hollins ever, and that was Omaha Central’s championship game his senior season.  I was only really watching the game to see how Nick Billingsley would do.  Oh, how the world works.

Anyway, if the roster is like the Suns, one could assume that the Mavericks will have a pretty good season in the conference, but likely lose to a North Dakota State or South Dakota State in the semi finals.  They will also more than likely lose in a way that will make you debate the pros and cons of getting in a fight with a referee.  I want to set the over/under at 15.5 for Omaha, and I want that over.

So I am welcome to any thoughts and suggestions if those are appropriate figures.

Also, something completely trivial that I typically send this friend at the start of the college basketball season is a Pre Season All State of Nebraska Division 1 Team.  This is what I set for the team, but I do not feel all that confident about it.  It’s not like this really makes a difference anyway.  Unless a Creighton die hard finds this, then they will bitch about it.  Take that photo of the state of Nebraska being a Husker basketball state downtown and you will for sure find yourself into a condescending man that will lecture you on Creighton versus Nebraska.

1st Team

F Cole Huff, Creighton

F  Shavon Shields, Nebraska

G Isaiah Zierden, Creighton

G Devin Patterson, Omaha

G Maurice Watson, Creighton

2nd Team

F Toby Hegner, Creighton

F Tre’Shawn Thurman, Omaha

F Andrew White, Nebraska

G Marcus Tyus, Omaha

G James Milliken, Creighton

3rd Team

C Geoffrey Groselle, Creighton

F Jake White, Omaha

F Ed Morrow, Nebraska

G Khryi Thomas, Creighton

G Benny Parker, Nebraska

 

2015-2016 opponent preview: Game 7, Montana State Bobcats

acroth86 College Basketball , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Montana State

2014-2015 Record: 7-23

2014-2015 Home Record:  5-9

Final 2014-2015 RPI:  323

Big Win in 2014-2015:  vs UT-Arlington (180 RPI) 104-81

Random Stat:  UNO and Montana State both won at North Dakota last season by the exact same score of 80 to 78.

When you first hear of Montana State, you assume this could be an easy road win.  I mean, it is Montana State of all schools.

Okay, this has been getting a little stale talking about who is returning, and what new players might be good, but now we get to add a new ingredient to the recipe.  Some fish.

Brian Gosh Darn Fish.  I really do not think that his is full legal name, but it could be.  The Mavs may not have a shot at playing Creighton, but they do have a shot at former Creighton/Oregon/San Diego/Marshall Assistant Coach, Brian Fish.  Trying to get his program going, Fish will take on the Mavericks in their first full year of division one.  This seems like it should be a home and home series.  I feel like we should be able to expect the Bobcats in Omaha in 2016.

I cannot really think of many press conferences that introduced a new basketball coach that required him to wear a hat. So this must be serious, right?

I felt pretty confident in Fish’s ability to recruit a good team and make a positive impact on Montana State right from the second he got hired.  He appeared to be Dana Altman’s number one guy after Kevin McKenna left Creighton.  Fish was responsible for recruiting some great players to the Bluejays.  Every time Creighton played a team that had a coach in the hot seat, Fish appeared super into the game, like he wanted the opportunity to be a head coach.  It was always in him.  He had been rumored for a number of head coaching jobs before, one in particular was hearing his name being floated around when Western Illinois needed a new head coach…twice that came up actually.

We are going to throw in a pinch of another ingredient though.  Fish was able go all the way to Rock Island, Illinois to go after a recruit named Tyler Hall.  Why is this an item of interest?  Tyler Hall was rated a 3 star recruit by ESPN, but ESPN’s recruiting website is not all that great at rating players so it might not be that big of a deal in the long run.  However, Hall was given a scholarship offer by the Mavericks as well; and on top of that he saw offers from South Dakota, South Dakota State, Ohio (Saul Phillips), and Western Michigan.  So yes, Fish came into Omaha’s backyard and stole one from us.  It could be a big deal, it could not be.  The Bobcats are advertising Hall as a player that will be competing for a starting spot, but they won 7 games last season, so I assume every new guy is competing for a starting spot.  Fish was also able to get a commitment from Minnesota native, Sam Neumann.  The Mavericks did not offer Neumann, but Minnesota is an area the Mavericks like to get into for recruiting…Neumann did receive an offer from South Dakota State.

Actually kind of stoked to see JT Gibson and Hall go head-to-head.

This could give Omaha fans an indication of what kind of guys the Mavericks are losing out on and what type of guys we are going after, other than the obvious list of players that are currently on the roster.  As a fan, you like to know your team is offering guys that are capable players.  I hate it when Nebrasketball fans lose out on some recruit to Auburn and that player turns out to not be competent enough to player in a power conference, and the Husker fans get all giddy that the player “sucks”.  Shouldn’t you be upset that this dude was almost on your roster, but he did not think your team was good enough for his abilities?  Am I right?

How else has Fish done in recruiting?  Like many coaches trying to turn their team around quickly, Fish went after junior college players to add experience to his team.  He signed 5, that is right, 5 junior college transfers to his team.  3 of those junior college players are 6’8″ or taller.  I’m just going to do some quick math here.  5 junior college players, 4 freshman…that is 9 new players to work into the mix.  With 9 new players, it feels kind of worthless to bring up many teams stats from 2014-2015.

Key losses for the Bobcats.

Michael Dinson – 5’9″ G: 14.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 41 FG% 39 3ptFG%

You can average 4 rebounds a game at 5 foot 9?

Eric Norman – 6’9″ C:  6.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.7 bpg, 31 FG%, 27 3ptFG %

Blake Brumewell – 6’7″ C: 2.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 51 FG%

Montana State also had 3 players transfer away from the program, who all according to a Big Sky blog were “non-contributors” and should not be a big deal to lose.

Key returns for the Bobcats

Marcus Colbert – 5’11” G, SR: 13.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.7 apg, 43 FG%, 42 3ptFG%, 50 3ptM

The Mavericks were 2-0 against non-conference opponents in 2014-2015 that had a player that ended up averaging more than 4 assists per game.  Those wins were against Central Arkansas and North Dakota.

Stephan Holm – 6’3″ G, JR: 9.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 39 FG%, 34 FG%, 50 3ptM

Danny Robison – 6’8″ F, SR:  9.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 45 FG%, 37FG%, 34 3ptM

 

Omaha is 4-0 against the Big Sky since becoming Division 1, but in reality, 3 of those wins are against North Dakota.  This will be the second game of 2015-2016 that the Mavericks go up against the Big Sky after playing at Northern Colorado.

This should be a difficult game for the Mavericks.  Road game, on Sunday, in a place like Bozeman, Montana.  With so many new faces for the Bobcats, it could be difficult to scout Montana State, but the Bobcats could still be trying to figure each other out at this point.  Brian Fish is not going to be surprised by the Mavericks either, he should be pretty knowledgeable of the program and have a plan for this game.